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What's the tldr? 😝
Ted Gioia, the jazz critic and scholar, has an interesting take on the topic, which he himself summarizes as
https://tedgioia.substack.com/p/how-web-platforms-collapse-the-facebook
That's a tough video to summarize. It covers several reasons converging to erode investor confidence, not just one or two things. But if I were to pick two: some type of metaverse will eventually become pervasive but that could take much longer than hoped, and they've failed to nurture their core revenue stream which is targeted advertising. If the former takes too long and the later doesn't improve, eventually the cash runs out.
I’d say a big factor is that Zuck made himself a dictator and only held counsel with himself.
Meta relies on advertising revenue and Apple changed how apps are able to make money through iOS. Meta made most of their money on mobile, so the rules change Apple implemented drilled a hole in the boat Zuckerberg had built.
And by the way, as of today TSLA is down 55% for the year, AAPL is down about 21% (YTD), GOOG is down 34% (YTD) and more generally the NASDAQ is down almost 30% (YTD). The economy under this administration is running on dying batteries and a protracted, deep recession is expected next year. Stocks are going to get killed... again... and a lot of people are going to lose their jobs. In other words, Meta is doing about as well as can be expected thanks to Zuckerberg's failure to replace lost revenue streams. They were at the right place at the right time before, which explains a lot of their previous success and now they're in the wrong business at the wrong time.
Sure the markets are in the toilet. But meta is down far more than any other stock - worse than Tesla and almost twice as bad as the market as a while. At least according to the video. I haven’t checked those numbers.
Per usual you don’t have a clue.
The worldwide economic downturn is not the fault of the current U.S. administration... there is an ongoing global pandemic, the invasion of Ukraine is impacting international energy and food markets and a host of other factors are negatively influencing economies around the world. It isn't just the U.S.
[Amusing that the people that blame Biden for the worldwide economic downturn do not credit Barack Obama for the positive economic turnaround during his 8 years in office.]
Exactly. Too much crisis for a world economy that still hasn’t really recovered from the financial crisis of 2008. And there is more to come. Raising costs of climate change, more refugees, boomers retire, growing conflict with China to name just a few. Apart from that I really think the metaverse was the wrong idea. I know a lot of nerds but I think none of them would like to spend a significant amount of time with VR goggles on their heads. Maybe just a fraction of their usual social media time.
Economic decline etc. certainly plays a factor, but Meta’s fate also goes to show how a number of tech companies got lucky, riding on the back of other companies’ hard work and investment.
E.g. Google and Facebook wouldn’t exist without the incredible amount of work put in by others in creating the WWW and other frameworks in the first place. Good ideas, right time, right place. Bingo. But lots of others, left by the wayside - for example I was using Dogpile before Google came along. Twitter - basically a grown up IRC.
What Meta is actually doing, is that expensive, time-consuming groundwork.
If the ‘metaverse’ does become the next big thing (personally I doubt it), then it will most likely be new Zuckerbergs that enjoy the success, while Meta pays the bills.
+100
Yeah Zuck has been too aggressive in the pushing of the Metaverse, it will need to be more open source, no one wants one company controlling their lives, too dystopian. Plus the tech isn't quite ready yet. Companies like Microsoft are in a better position anyway probably because it will come from game engines and platforms which already have high user interaction and they also have better experience with software and own loads of game studios.
Also he's taken money away from PC VR by poaching all the developers. PC VR is the best and trying to kill other sides of the industry is not good in the end because then you are also potentially killing the whole market which needs to be healthy to attract new users to VR. It's all quite fragile.
But the investment overall in VR has been good, it is a thing now, so at least he has done some good in bringing it more to the masses but it's going to be niche for a long time I think.
VR is fun for the wow factor, but aside from a few niche applications is a little too immersive to spend too much time with, plus entering a scenario where first person is optimum requires a connection with your own movements, which really requires a large amount of space. For the economic situation, it’s not Biden that created the downturn, but it will need a cooperative effort and I feel quite radical one to alter the situation, on a global scale, which at this time looks quite daunting.
They're killing instagram too also, I hate using it now, and again the software experience is also bad, Meta business suite just doesn't work very well.
It is.... I sometimes have failed uploads and it never tells me why it failed, for example. Could be any number of factors. To mention just one annoyance.
Yeah same here, it wastes loads of time using it so I'm still forced to use the phone app more which is terrible to work with in a business sense.
I agree with pretty much everything this article says. Makes for a more compelling argument than "thanks Biden" in my eyes, too.
These guys ruined Instagram, where you now need to dig between ads to find an actual photo from an actual friend. They ruined Facebook where you are not even allowed to dig for an actual post from an actual friend anymore. I left all of it myself a few years ago, keeping just the messenger bit active for communication with family and friends.
All the while they also benefited from the lack of government regulations (as opposed to too much of it). They ruined ad markets for smaller companies all over the world, while removing a huge amount of tax revenue from governments in the process. They also did nothing about Cambridge Analytica and other criminals using the data collected through Facebook loopholes for nefarious political purposes.
This downfall could not be happening to a more deserving company and person.
Too true.... Horrible company
Good business-focused discussion of Meta, Twitter, and other tech companies here. Listen to all of it or skip ahead about 40% to when Aswath Damodaran joins: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-prof-g-show-with-scott-galloway/id1498802610?i=1000588284814
When Facebook first emerged some of my friends were super-enthusiastic about (long before it went mainstream). I wasn't yet an old fogey back then, but I instantly found it creepy and have never joined the platform. Watching it burn is very enjoyable Schadenfreude.
I think the lesson here is that new technology is not automatically a good thing. Sometimes new tech is shit. Something to be mindful of when the Next Big Thing inevitably gets hyped. Be that crypto (another tech I'm enjoying watching as it dies), or AI, which is obviously the flavour of the month right now. These things are always hyped, but don't always live up to the utopian promises made by the tech bros.
I hate the internet. Hate it. Lots of benefits of course, but for me they're outweighed by the negatives. I'd happily go back to life as it was before it barged it's way into our lives and took over everything.
Personally I love the internet, and I am overall a tech enthusiast (which is why I hang out on an iOS music forum). But tech is like any other human endeavour: flawed.
There is a quote I really like: Out of the crooked timber of humanity no straight thing was ever made. (Immanuel Kant). And that sums up my attitude to tech: everything that human beings create is flawed, and comes with problems as well as benefits.
There is a utopian streak in many technology evangelists, a belief that tech can solve all our problems. But of course tech creates its own problems, even if it has the capacity to improve our lives (which of course it does).
The Metaverse, Blockchain, AI, are all examples of utopian visions - things that will supposedly change the world for the better, that are deeply flawed in ways that tech evangelists seem blind to.
Yeah, it's not the technology itself which is bad, it's corporations battling to control everything. In the end it never works anyway as no company lasts forever, but the technologies will remain in some form and seed other types.
The problem with a lot of tech, and the internet in general, is that it gets abused by unscrupulous people and businesses.
The level of stress I have to go through trying to get support for unsolicited payments, fraudulent activity, incorrect billing, problems with services etc. is just ridiculous - companies hiding behind layers of chatbots, online forms and 'page not found' help links. Then of course there's the social stuff that gets stirred up via misinformation and hate groups. Online shopping - great! Except then again there's the risk of fraudulent activity, and when we do get stuff delivered it looks as though it's been stamped on by a number of large cows. Buy it from a shop Monzo. Yeah, except they're all half empty or closed because they can't compete with Amazon (who ironically I can't buy from today as they're 'busy').
Seriously, I would happily go back to the days when it didn't exist. I bloody hate it - and that's from someone who makes a living buiding and developing websites!
Martha Wells's Murderbot sci-fi series (a work of absolute genius) paints a convincing picture of a future where corporations do end up owning and controlling most of the universe, with quite a few predictable consequences. (Musk for example could easily be a character written by her 🙂👌)
Yeah it easy to see that kind of future, but fortunately I think chaos is embedded so much in nature to (hopefully) make that unlikely
@richardyot, I agree with your analysis in the main, but, I do not think everything human beings do is flawed. The arts allow humans to rise above our flawed nature. Mozart, Beethoven and Lou Reed were flawed humans, but their art is perfect. Thank goodness at least we have that.
Yes maybe art allows us to transcend our flawed human nature.
I have a Quest 2 headset and use it, on average, 8-10 hours a week. I only play one game, Eleven Table Tennis. It’s a sport that translates perfectly to VR and that simulation is very impressive with a player base of 1.5 - 2 million, worldwide.
I haven’t had any interest in the metaverse. Haven’t stepped foot in it.
Crypto - Hold my beer. 🍺