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Deepseek / China’s AI breakthrough
I’ve come out of my cave to hear what folks think about China’s Deepseek. In case you don’t know
China just ate the US’s AI lunch. What costs US billions costs China millions with Nvidia’s second string chip. US sanctions apparently helped China. Costs 1/30 of US efforts. Nvidia down 17% two hours before closing.
Start at 15:00 to get to the heart of it.
Comments
Good to have you pop in @LinearLineman. I've only watched the first eight minutes so far, but my initial thought was confirmed starting around 7:30. Jumping to the front of the "frontier" is made easier by building on top of what has come before.
I picture the first American settlers who had to cross the country in covered wagons vs. those who could later take a train across most of the distance and start from there. AI development is on an exponential curve. People who don't realize that are way off the mark.
What's unnerving is that bad actors are on the same curve. We're in for some scary times. And good times (while they last).
I'm gonna finish this video when I have time, all the while keeping my skeptic hat firmly on though. Thanks for posting it. I hope it'll still generate some interesting discussion even though it's buried here in the back room.
I made it through to the end. I’m excited about the “Open” licensing of this new model. Hopefully, the training costs are honest because the boffins behind this new alternative are primarily paid through their use of computers for financial trading applications for the real costs may be exaggerated.
Encouraging that it's open source, if that is indeed true.
Yes.The implementation builds on the “Llama” code from Meta (Facebook). Generally, when a privately held company
establishes an application use case of value to many it becomes the target for an Open Source implementation to. service
that need. So, we should see a lot of Totally Addressable Market for AI use cases get served by Open Source implementations.
This one surfacing in China throws geopolitical concerns into the conversation. I’ll expect to see the private suppliers attack
this on national security grounds.
Sure enough… an OpenAI supported is asking users NOT to trust DeepSeek.
Trump will likely want to put a tariff on it because he doesn’t realize a tarriff on a free product Would not offset the deficits on my library card for over due books.
Maybe he can get Oracle to buy the app and make it prohibitively expensive and the official AI for Trump’s administration.
Maybe AI can help California find the secret watervavles needed to make central valley almond fa meds happy with their allotments. I’m eager to taste that sweet Canadian water once gravity puts it into my Norcal pipes.
No, looks like they arent.. from initial 2000x NVidia H100 from multiple sources it looks like it was actually 50000x, even maybe 200000x ... main problem is that based on sanctions they should NOT be able to gather soo much nvidia cards, so it is really political problem for somebody to admit they have soo much :-) Somebody should be fined very hard for allowing this.
There are some SW innovations though, some novel approaches to few details in LLM implementation - but thanks to fact it's open source, OpenAI, Antropic, Google and all other LLM player will be able to analyze it and use those innovations in their models :-)
Anyway - using DeepSeek online version is very bad choice, we have no idea how will be all those data from user's prompts used at DeepSeek's side, but considering fact it's is China, it is almost sure they will weaponize it against west in some way. Possibilities how to use that type of data are almost endless (from less malevolent like targeted AD campains, to very malevonent like steling user private data and use it for criminal activities or even targeted disinformation campaigns to manipulate user opinions or even manipulate elections)
I hope that soon all their ideas will be re-implement to all existing western models, so it is not big leap forward for china. Good opportunity to buy some NVDIA stock, cause that crash was really irrational. China was stealing western ideas all the time, now it's our turn
Trump is considering tariffs for Taiwan's chip manufacturer TSMC .. This actually makes sense cause entire world (including China and including US) are strongly dependent on this single one company because their 3nm chips (which are used in GPUs, so it's vital chip for machine learning).
TSMC builds factory in US, but just for 4nm chips. It's in best US (and entire western world) interest to have production of 3nm chips somewher safe away from China, so my raw guess is this is exactly what Trum want's to achieve with those tariffs. Will this be successfull ? Don't think so. It's worth to try ? Definitely. Entire civilisation future for next few decades depends on keeping (and increasing) production of those chips (or even developing new, better ones). If China decides to attack Taiwan, it will throw us technologically back to 20st century for at least decade if not more .. Those chips are used also for latest modern weapons systems, so it is really MAJOR importance to keep access to this tech for us.
It was interesting to watch the stocks dip and then go back up.
The US should definitely incentivize TSMC and NVIDIA to manufacture in the US (including no taxes for 20 years, or whatever it takes). The long-term goal should be a revitalized supply chain based completely in the US. This pullback from China's manufacturing should be happening in the EU also.
I suppose the rationale back in 2001 when China was allowed into the WTO was that it would transform their society into one that would be less Communistic and more capitalistic. But they kept the authoritarian rule part and then hammered capitalism into a shape which best serves them.
Ahh, thanks @dendy. You put into words some of the concerns I have had roiling around in me but have been unable to put my finger on. I'm not sure all the maggots under the rock have been uncovered, but I'm sure they are there.
The open-source part is puzzling. There has to be a catch. This effort could not have happened without the blessing of the Chinese government. So what's in it for them? This is so unlike China that I'm sure there is more to the story than meets the eye.
And you're right. It's a great time to buy some Nvidia.
Tax breaks seem like a good approach. Tariffs are rough because they hit consumers immediately in the pocket book. They're more aggressively adversarial. They invite the other side to retaliate. Tax breaks are a more nebulous thing to react against. The tax incentive would have to be sweet enough and targeted enough to spur actual investment in what's needed rather than just be used as a loophole to sweeten profits.
They damn sure better not provide direct investment though. We don't need any more Solyndras.
Agree on all points.
Can we unravel why TMSC is so dominant in chip manufacturing? I have long suspected it’s the waste products of the processes. Intel, Apple and others shifted production to TMSC over their own US facility investments to avoid the costs of damage to the environment but there are probably a lot more reasons how these companies avoided competing or funding multiple vendors which has typically been the right supplier strategy.
The CHIPS ACT money will probably get pulled back to avoid giving Biden a > @AlexY said:
There’s a symbiotic relationship between “news” and relevant stock prices… it seems like day traders sell on bad news and then re-invest at the “sale” price.
Nvidia is more than a just some chips… it’s a purpose built operating system with of application programming libraries. So, it’s not just the Intel of AI but it’s the IBM or rather Microsoft since IBM funded MS’es starting phase.
This Chinese company used NVidia hardware and open source software developed (and donated) by Google (PyTorch? aPI’s and code) and Meta (the Llama LLM model). The terms of these code licenses prevent hiding the added code from review so it all gets put on GitHUB. The process of training the model from data to be a better consumer of expensive resources seems to be the win. It’s going to be a horse race with a moving finish line from here until a new Seabisket emerges to lap the field.
After PM’ing the hibernating @LinearLineman, I checked in to see it I could buy a little NVidia and test my theory of the news driven share price being so predictable. I haven”t looked yet… I’m a long hold investor so watching my little holding rise and fall will give me something to chat about.
When has China ever felt their hands were tied by license agreements?
I'd love to believe there's nothing more to see here, but I simply can't put that much ingrained skepticism aside.
China so many steps ahead.
They are masterfully smart. And patient.
I have nothing but respect for the people of China, not so much for their government.
This analysis of this news helps explain what was done to produce this new product.
He built an R1 instance on his own computer with an NVidia card. He implies that study of the weights in the model will yield essential tips on efficiency. I suspect that studying a huge table of values might be an example of MacroData Refinement as practiced mysteriously on the “Severance” TV series.
The example set by my own nation and the west, is frankly appalling, if we are to speak with authority about others shouldn’t we first put our own house in order.
Democratisation of AI for the ‘Democracies’, now what could that mean.
Emphasis mine.
The smaller distilled models freely available for download are nowhere near as powerful as the full model you'd access through their web UI. This is speculation on my part, but I think open-sourcing the research work and distillations simply creates buzz, goodwill, and panic/disruption for competition. Now that the larger, full model is becoming available for download...I don't know. Maybe just disruption.
Thanks for sharing this, it was pretty insightful. One thing I think is being overlooked a lot is that the distilled versions of R1 are actually another model that was "taught" using R1. Basically what he is describing, one iteration removed. I've been testing out a number of the distills locally, and it's pretty wild to see them "think"...but they don't work very well for production use-cases (at least for my use-cases). I haven't tried the full model via their online chat UI.
No. It is OK to criticize more than one government and to a more or lesser degree.
Hey LL, just popped in to say hi! Hope you're doing well my friend. Yes, this DeepSeek AI shenanigans is quite the talk of the town isn't it...
Well said.
I didn’t say it wasn’t OK to speak about other nations or issues, but it’s the hypocrisy that’s as appalling as the West’s actions, this more so applies to our governments and MSM.
Speaking with authority is different to speaking duplicitously.
You said “ shouldn’t we first put our own house in order”.
No, I do not think that is a prerequisite for “speaking with authority” about another government.
"None of us will have a job":
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-03/deepseek-accelerates-ai-robot-jobs-takeover/104886722
If you’re fine with people who tell lies, then choose to believe them that’s your prerogative, me I don’t discount what they say, but don’t take it on trust, hence what I’ve said in the past about constructed narratives have largely been borne out.
No, I am not.