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Well, there is. Rules and protocols can be ripped up and changed if all parties are in agreement, and Brexit isn’t just going to annihilate Britain, it will harm other members too, so it’s in everyone’s interest that I’d doesn’t happen - despite the rhetoric.
But, yes, it looks like it will. Unless Starmer has something up his sleeve - already there’s a court case against the government, and with 65,000 deaths there will be many more. If that hits the fan over the summer there could be a vote of no-confidence, which would make putting the brakes on a potential option.
Starmer is a QC, he’s no idiot, and he opposes Brexit. His calm, methodical approach has already caused several government u-turns, so I wouldn’t write him off just yet.
Agree. But he is (rightly) interested in getting into power and that's going to take playing the longer game. Back to Trotsky and things having to get worse for revolution to happen (or in this case for more of the public to agree with Granny...)
It's all down to timing really - Starmer is more of a long-term winner, slowly hoovering up disgruntled Tory voters not happy with the new Brexit Tory pensioner killer party, looking for a more professional PM rather than a lazy, incompetent 'character'. Unfortunately Brexit will hit first, so it's unlikely we'll dodge that.
Predictions:
A perfect storm of economic hardship courtesy of the virus and Brexit, along with a second wave of infections, will be too much for our bunch of incompetents to cope with, and a public majority will turn against the government after further bungling. They already have in some quarters.
The Tories will oust Johnson and Cummings, as they're poisoning the traditional small c conservative image, though with such a limited cabinet to choose a sucessor from (it'll probably be the loathsome Gove) it probably won't help them much. They're already trying to sneak in healthcare insurance - that'll get short sharp shrift from the Brits.
The UK will struggle as best it can through a massive recession, fingers will be pointed at the Tories, and a possible vote of no-confidence, along with a batch of criminal charges against the government will follow.
Much as I'd like to see a more anarchistic, locally run UK, I can't see that happening - left and right will simply become more entrenched, and there will be civil disorder and food riots.
Personally we'll be keeping our heads down in Wales, which will no doubt have a massive boost for pro-independence, and keep our fingers crossed for a Starmer run government in a few years time, and eventually rejoining the EU (if they'll have us) after the knuckleheads realise what a box of catshit idea their Brexit was. Failing that I'll get my Irish passport and piss off somewhere less toxic.
All of that, the good, bad and depressing, sounds pretty feasible with the EXCEPTION of Gove. He is too odious. Babyheads boiling on the stove.
Was just muttering to Madam that I had always presumed we would end up back in Blighty somewhere along the line, but it looks very hard to pull the that trigger in the foreseeable now. Of course, I might feel differently come November 4th.
Found this artifact on page nine. Lol and jeez Louise. I guess we tire of everything... or is it apathy in the US and UK that nothing can stop this “train wreck in slow motion”?
As I write I am so tired of this that I don’t want to write at all. I mean does it serve any good purpose?
Here in the US the wheels are truly coming off the cart. With over 40,000 cases yesterday the Bunker Boy insists it is fading away. Virtually none of his Republican enablers say a word in protest. Pence tells gove to “look on the bright side”. The only bright side is tearing down the statues of racists and traitors... which, of course, Trump wants to stop.
Commentators are calling him the American Dracula, op-eds opine he is a murderer, Obama says he is shambolic, Steve Schmit, who ran John McCain’s campaign, calls him an imbecile and an idiot, the Lincoln Project Puts out ad after devastating ad, Bolton vomits into the public square, Barr subverts decency in his quest for a King, cops kill even though they know they are being videotaped, college kids boo when Trump mentions “Black Lives Matter” and cheer when he yelps “Kung Flu”, rally goer says it’s a “Scamdemic”, 40,000,000 unemployed, Flynn case crushed by Appeals Court, Zelinsky testifies to corrupt intent from DOJ, Trump wonders why the 19 in Covid-19, his lickspittles say he was joshing when he said he slowed down testing only to have the murderer say he never kids, he spends 15 minutes in Tulsa reenacting his West Point debacle, he is desperately trying to halt the publication of his niece’s tell all book, Trump and his Himmler, Barr, brazenly oust thre lead attorney in the Southern District of NY’s office to bury prosecutions against Giuliani, Turkey’s Halk Bank (a favor to Erdogan), and his own finances,
and on and on. In other words, FUBAR (Fucked Up Beyond All Reason from wwll). In Louisiana they had 200 polling stations operating for recent elections where they once had over 3000 and in one county, with 600,000 blacks and Hispanics, there was a single polling place while a Trump rails against “fraudulent“ mail in ballots While 25% of voters have always used them and the military since the Civil War.
And yet, millions still blindly and cultishly follow him while he fucks us all up the ass. As Howard Stern said, his base are the people he despises the most. Oh, to have George Bush back!
Well, I guess that about catches things up. Looking forward to hearing how the poor lad is being victimized and mistreated and how ANTIFA is responsible for it all. As George Floyd’s daughter said: When was America ever great?
Despite all the shenanigans and gerrymandering, he's going to lose, and lose heavily, in November. The last two months have killed him off (and I would not have said this back March BTW, I still thought he might win back then).
Of course he will question the legitimacy of the results, but I think the loss will be heavy enough that he can't do much about it, even with a corrupt Senate and Supreme Court.
And then watch as he becomes a pariah, one that will make Nixon look like a saint. All those Senators, the enablers, and pundits that currently back him to the hilt will turn their backs on him in a heartbeat. Some will claim they never supported him. His nutty base will still be there, but their man will no longer be in the White House.
That’s the plan, and it’s the only one I’ve got!
In ten years he will be compared favorably to the current Republican incumbent. If Bush Jr can be rehabilitated (who was far worse than Trump - blows my mind that people have forgotten this), then anyone can be.
I'm not ready to write him off yet though. I think you're underestimating that we live in accelerated times, and that by November we will have experienced Alien attack, some kind of 9/11, the secession of North Dakota, a squirrel strike and most of Hollywood arrested for crimes against human decency. I mean, we have another 5 months. 5 months!
@MonzoPro
The problem with Keir Starmer is that he doesn't really stand for anything, or have any principles. A strategy of waiting until the Tories implode might work, but at this point it's hard for me to imagine how bad the Tories would have to be for that to succeed. The UK press (and BBC) have at this point that when it comes to an election there is nothing they won't do in order to support the Tories. Labour are gambling that if they position themselves as a more competent, bit less racist, 'Tory party' than the press will support them. Not sure why, as it didn't work previously. And they have no ideas for regaining the north other than apparently be a bit more racist in order to appeal to the 'working class' (because no BAME people are working class apparently).
And even if Labour get in, nothing will change. The people around Keir Starmer (who are purging the left of the party, and will probably drive the new members out given time) have no ideas. The UK is going through the most dramatic changes in it's history since WWII and the loss of the empire, during a period when globalization is collapsing - and Labour are offering warmed over Blairism... These people have no ideas, nothing. It's all tax credits and education. Just pathetic.
An equally like scenario (and obviously the Tory plan) is that Johnson presides over Brexit and the resulting chaos, get's ousted and replaced by somebody else. And that person then gets to be the brave new reformer... And you know what, if I've learned anything in the past 10 years, that will probably work.
At some point the new generation will be old enough, and the older generation dead enough, for some kind of new politics to come through. But that's not going to be a while, and it won't be Labour if they revert back to empty suits like Keir Starmer. And the UK at that point will have an economy closer to Spain, than France/Germany.
Not sure Scotland will go independent, but at this point I think Irish reunification has to be inevitable. Which in many ways is a good thing, but it is going to complicate Irish politics for at least a generation.
I've stopped trying to persuade my wife that we should maybe move back some day. The UK is imploding. I have no desire to stay in the US once my kids graduate unless there's radical change, but I have an Irish passport so I still have options thank god.
I very much hope that these are those words from afar that see clearly. And yes, I want to believe. Four months and a week and a bit.
@LinearLineman
A classic rant Sir. On the right side of history which will judge you well. Reminds me of Marion County Herald, Palmyra, Missouri, January 31, 1923:
I would expect nothong less Monzo-san.
As a quiet lunatic living in a Texan urban world which is faling through the floor currently, this picture felt like a self-portrait:
God I'm sick to death of this 'North' vs 'South crap the Tories have weaponised to create divisions that don't exist, and people telling me who is and who isn't working class. If you read through Labour's pre-election manifesto you'll see plenty of good ideas in there for the UK as a whole.
Would you prefer Starmer to be a bit of a 'character'? Like old Boris the toxic clown?
Some of us don't actually want Labour to come up with radical new ideas, some of us just want a competent governent that isn't corrupt, doesn't break things, and invests in useful things such as the NHS - all stuff supported by the current Labour opposition and part of their manifesto.
Some of us just want this horrific dictatorship to end, and if a sensible man in a suit can attract enough votes to do so, then he's got my full support. He's also against Brexit - which proves to me that he's not an idiot.
Have you just been tasered?
The pandemic is over in England apparently, and everyone's down the beach. Here in sensible Wales we're still not allowed to go further than 5 miles, and then only for 'exercise'. Problem is next month it'll be full to the brim with pox ridden English tourists, getting drunk and beating each other up here instead of the Costa Del Despair.
Bleedin hot here today too.
How bad are things there? I've heard the virus rates are going through the roof.
@MonzoPro Well, to be fair, we are the bourgeois people hiding down the lane, but this is our first wave, finally arrived, and beginning that desperate doubling. I am still hopeful (it is my nature), but ICU beds are lessening and they're prepping the convention centers again etc. Never a good look.
Austin has a very young demographic, but then 60% of hospitalizations currently are reportedly hispanic and a disproportionate number of those are variations of the lads who work on the building sites for cash and go home to three generations living in close quarters. Having said that, we are the smaller version of where the trouble here is which is probably going to be Houston....
....what happened (in a nutshell) is that we watched you lot and New York and Milan and felt we were living through it but somehow must have been smarter or more blessed by Yahweh, because we didn't get it like you lot. Then you lot began to loosen and we want our freedom dammit. And here it comes.
Put it this way: I would like to go see my mum in Spain, but even if they let me in I'd have to quarantine at the airport for two weeks etc etc.
Digging in.
This is where good political leadership is crucial - in the timing of imposing, and loosening lockdown restrictions. Unfortunately the tragic comedy duo of Trump & Johnson aren't living on the same planet as competency. My rule of thumb is to act on instinct - fortunately we have a devolved government here in Wales that is actually more on the ball than the London gang, so that's helped, plus we personally went into isolation a couple of weeks before being told to do so.
Hopefully we can get our house move to the shack done in the brief window between waves - if so we'll pull down the shutters and sit it out until it's safe again - I hope you do the same. If not - my alcohol free zone ends in 9 days (not that I'm counting or anything) and it'll be new iPads and mountains of booze. If we're going down, I'll do it with multiple instances of Model D and a liver full of boozes!
@MonzoPro
I liked Labour's pre-election manifesto. I don't like the way that the new team talk about listening to 'working class voters' concerns, which is a dog-whistle for maybe we should be a bit more racist for white voters. New Labour used to do this as well. It's toxic.
Generally in the media when people talk about the 'working class' they mean white people. This has been a complain in the BAME community for a long time.
I would like it if he didn't do things like:
The last manifesto was pretty radical. The people around Keir Starmer disagreed with most of it.
And Labour does need new ideas for the following reasons:
The Labour right have not updated their thinking since the Blair years, despite the fact that the world has changed out of all recognition since then, and the foundations of that approach (essentially using city money to subsidize other things) has collapsed.
Other radical policies would be thinks like ending NHS Privatisation (which the Labour right support), academies and various other disasters that were introduced by New Labour. One of the reasons my wife wanted to leave the UK was because we couldn't get a school for our kids that was within 10 miles.
Maybe, but he was the architect of Labour's disastrous Brexit campaign policy, which suggests that politically he's not very astute.
I'm in South Carolina. You can see it coming, and you can also see that the state government are going to deny reality because anything else would be too embarrassing. Other than a few people wearing masks, you would not know that there's a pandemic.
I have to say that while this Londoner never enviaged living in Texas, Austin is sufficiently liberal (whatever the fuck that means at this point in history) that folks are generally being sensible, but it's a small town....and there's a lot of kids still playing beer pong....
@cian
I actually agree with a lot of what you're saying, but unfortunately the majority of voters in the UK don't. So if we keep pushing for a utopian vision that they don't subscribe to, then we're in for another 5 years of Tory rule, plus the 5 we already have.
What media? You can cherry pick examples, but they will vary depending on the source. I'm white and working class, the son of an Irish navvy, but when I moved up North, blokes I got talking to in the pub seemed to think I was some sort of middle class rich Tory, solely on my Southern accent, which couldn't be further from the truth.
It's all about perspective. You've listed one, there are many others.
Yep, me too. But since he's doing a pretty good job at holding Johnson to account, and exposing his inadequacies he's the best we have for now.
Are you suggesting we shouldn't?
Well, Starmer was against Brexit, so you can't put the blame him for that lot. Labour are also not in government, so at present, it's not their responsibility to sort out, and without an election on the cards any time soon, not something they have to address.
Yep, I agree, totally wrong.
I disagree. The reason Labour's policy was disasterous, is solely down to Corbyn. He enabled it by passing the initial bill, despite it lacking any kind of post-Brexit details whatsoever, and then tried to fence-sit and attract both Leave and Remain voters, which just pissed off both camps. 'Respect' the referendum decision my arse. Starmer was not the leader of the party at that point, Corbyn asserted authority throughout, so Starmer was pretty much sidelined throughout.
As for 'astute', he clearly identified it as the xenophobic, right-wing disaster it is. So, yeah, he is.
You found it on Page 9 because we're all EXHAUSTED.
Exhausted about the intensity of the news each day
Exhausted with trying to keep moving forward
Exhausted with trying to keep our chin up
Exhausted with explaining our position
Exhausted with listening to all of those opposing science
Exhausted with complaining about the state of things
Exhausted with being stressed
Exhausted with all the little things now being so MONSTROUS because absolutely everything is amplified nowadays
Exhausted with being constantly overwhelmed
Exhausted with being constantly afraid
Exhausted with the fact that THIS IS WHAT THEY WANT as it keeps them in control.
Exhausted with the lack of light at the end of the tunnel
Exhausted with all the willful ignorance
Exhausted with the willingness to be plain STUPID
Exhausted with feeling responsible for all these horrible white people and their entitlement
Exhausted with feeling stressed out about my own whiteness and the inherent entitlement that's all I've known
Exhausted that with each new day things just get worse
EVERY
DAMN
DAY
Yeah, it's all too much at the moment, so even the complaining has to take a back seat as that has become stressful/overwhelming too. Complaining absolutely has it's place and is healthy, but at this point I understand why folks are keeping quieter of late.
@MonzoPro
Keir Starmer in 2017 voted for the initial bill and was apparently one of the people who pushed for it on the grounds that Labour should respect the democratic outcome. Which I actually agree with, despite disagreeing with Brexit.
Corbyn was merely acting upon the will of the party, and it's total revisionism to suggest anything else. Most of the vocal Labour remainers from 2019 voted for that bill in 2017.
And the reason Corbyn was forced to fence-sit was because the party couldn't agree one a policy. One could blame Corbyn for not forcing the party to pick a policy I guess, though I think he rightly thought it would split the party. But I don't think it's remotely fair to blame Corbyn for the policy itself. Keir Starmer was the architect of Labour's leave strategy going into the election. If it failed, that's on Keir Starmer, or the party for voting for it. I think it says something about the UK media and the general level of discourse that nobody makes this point.
The policy was one agreed at the party conference. As far as I can tell the policy that Corbyn wanted was a soft Brexit, which was not the party policy.
Okay. And once you've done that, what then? Because as far as I can see the only strategy was to push for a soft Brexit looking something like Norway. And he didn't do that. The remain strategy was a disaster that ignored public opinion, political and legal realities. The final insanity was when they decided to campaign against Labour in places like South Kensington. These people turned a bad situation into a total disaster, and they need to own that.
I think I've been wittering about this for a while, but if you haven't read it I recommend the memoir 'The Blue Touch Paper' by David Hare.
Many areas of entertainment, but his thoughts in passing about the chaos of the seventies and the three day week etc are refreshing and Not Just The Usual Narrative. I say 'in passing' because while Hare is by nature political the book itself covers a lot of ground and is a good read, but that particular section, read in 2020 sat in a deckchair in Texas, made me think of you
@cian
Oddly the UK public broadly support Labour's campaign policies from both 2017 and 2019. Ed Miliband ran on policies that are probably similar to what Keir Starmer will run on, and yet still lost. I don't think the issues are the problem, I think the problem is a media that will portray most Labour politicians as weak. Maybe Keir Starmer can change that, but I kind of doubt it. If Labour's strategy is based upon appealing to the UK media (which is either strong Tory, or Tory lite in the case of the Guardian), then they're doomed. The media like the Tories.
British newspapers, BBC. Also when British politicians talk about the working class, they also mean white people. For example a common thing you'll hear is that the working class were driven out of the east end. Which I don't know if you've been to the east end recently, but large chunks of it are pretty working class, if not necessarily white. See also Blue Labour who use working class as code for white guy with a van who reads the Sun.
It's become a dog whistle. When politicians talk about listening to the conerns of the working class, they mean their concerns about, you know, black people and immigrants. Who obviously aren't working class because...
My perspective is that if you earn below a certain amount of money then you're probably working class. But I'm not a columnist at the Guardian, or a Labour spad. Their perspective is that the working class is white - and probably not those white women working in call centers either.
Sure and the UK media think anyone with a midlands/northern accent is working class. For example, Jess Phillips, who's family are upper middle class - but who manages to convince UK newspapers/BBC that she's salt of the earth, working class.
@cian said:
Are you suggesting we shouldn't?
I think taking their economic concerns seriously is a good idea, but that never seems to be on the agenda (or if it is it's something stupid like more training, as if 40 years of retraining had achieved anything).
It's not about blame, it's just these are the realities you have to deal with, otherwise you're looking at years of economic stagnation, or worse. And Labour will get the blame for that if they don't address it.
@cian - the reason we have a Tory government, is that people voted Tory, and people like you - who should be supporting the opposition - either didn’t bother to vote, or spent their time writing long posts on social media, picking holes in a party that didn’t perfectly match their own ideals, but was nonetheless a whole world of difference better than the scumbags we have in government now.
I’m not sure what you’re hoping to achieve - I doubt Mr Starmer is going to read your posts and make radical changes to his approach - but you’re certainly doing the Tory PR machine a world of good.
‘Respect the referendum’ my arse.
@richardyot and @mister_rz
I Studios is pretty clear eyed when dissecting things especially how the justifiable protests are reframed by the media and the state and how seeking justice is fraught with appearances of legitimacy and the problems of public support
@Daveypoo, I hope that helped, brother. Sure it’s overwhelming and sure the deluge of our communal sensoria is part of the plan.
We can complain bitterly about the tragedies, but, in absolute fact, if these things weren’t happening, the Don King would most probably be re-elected on the strength of the economy. And in another four years he would finish his god given mission as the tv antichrist. Gog and MaGog would be at it and those devoted Christians in the US would have bred a pure red heifer.
Pence said to the govs look on the fucking bright side. Well, the bright side is that this shit is destroying the Bunker Boy as each day passes. His only hope is that the economy rebounds. What are the chances of that (a nearby Walmart just closed cause of personnel infections) by November? unfortunately, and fortunately, nil.
I’m sorry the whole world is suffering, but I gotta look on the bright side as my Vice President in Grief admonishes. Hopefully the US will wake up. Wake up to the fragility of our freedom, the generational racism, and that people are pretty fucking stupid and we need to pay attention. Trump has, ironically, done that for me much better than any other prez . So be it.
In a way, I’d like to get into politics and lead the UK as prime minister or suchlike. I’m sure it’s not an easy job, but I’m sure I could probably perform as well as any that has been before, only with a bit more honesty toward the public. Not a lot, I literally mean a bit. My main stance would be to push everybody to be a trifle more of what they can be than they already have been. Just seeing the public get a bit more out of their own potential, and learn how to make slightly higher quality decisions. Not a massive regime, just a slight push in that direction, always.
If I were prime minister my first job would be to make the government of the UK as transparent as possible. Open it all for all to see. Demonstrate on telly what decisions have to be taken, with what limits and frames of operation, showing the dynamic interaction like a big governmental Sims game / game show, and pretty much let the public decide on the best way forward for everything. Then they’ll see that it’s not as easy or obvious as everybody thinks, and why decisions made are usually suboptimal.
The public are generally well capable of coming along at that speed. Look at how in December/January nobody, yet in March/April almost everybody, has now become a lot more expert in both epidemiology and statistics. It’s not beyond the public to understand certain stuff to quite a capable level. Open government would be one of these things.
I live in the US, but if I still lived in the UK I would have been canvassing in November and December. The people (including friends and family) I know who live in the UK worked their asses of canvassing, including my siblings and parents. My brother is the treasurer of his local party and ran for the council. My entire family are members of the party, as are many of my friends.
My problem with the current strategy is that I don't think it will work, because it failed for Miliband - and the people who are now in charge are refusing to face up to the electoral facts on the ground (Scotland, the North and an extremely hostile press who will lie to help the Tories). The people who in charge now, were essentially in charge before 2017 and failed. Many of them were involved in the terrible 2017 EU referendum, and seemed to have learnt nothing from it. As far as I can see the strategy is return to pre-Corbyn years and wait for the Murdoch god to smile kindly on them again.
Keir Starmer was the guy responsible in the last election for pushing a second referendum. Which was electorally unpopular, hard to explain on the doorstep and a gift to the Tory PR machine. I don't have a lot of confidence in the architect of that plan, particularly when he doesn't seem to be willing to cop to its failure.