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Off-Topic discussion about Bitcoin and cryptocurrency.
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@Gavinski wrote:"Yup, I would prefer we got back to the crypto thing, the broader economic / political discussion is going nowhere, no one from one side in this case is going to be influenced by the other, we've been here before many times."
What is there left to say about BTC? Richard has articulately explained the fundamental weaknesses of BTC (including its energy footprint and the pyramid-scheme-like nature of its current phase) as a long-term asset and why something can't function as both an effective currency and a speculative investment.
The arguments in favor of BTC as a long-term asset in this thread have largely ignored those fundamentals. It seems they have focused either 1) on the possibility of making money on BTC's patterns independent of its having long-term value or 2) on ideological reasons why BTC is the asset of the future.
It is a guessing came at this point whether it will mature beyond its current state. It might. But it might just as well collapse when the energy/computation demands become less ignorable or if world events result in people needing the money they have pumped in.
If anyone is interested in putting money into BitCoin, I'd highly recommend re-reading all Richard's posts about the fundamentals...and give them a lot of thought and don't simply be swayed away by the passionate barrage of posts from BTC true-believers that dismiss their critics out of hand.
Really understand that BTC is not like a stock or a bond. You aren't buying a piece of anything that has an independent value (which would be ok if it were simply a liquid way of sending money and which you didn't plan to hold). The appreciation in value is an index of bitcoin enthusiasts' enthusiasm.
Anyone who has put money into BTC has a vested interest in creating confidence in the system...their investment can only appreciate in value if the number of enthusiasts increase. I don't mean this figuratively. It isn't like a stock where you have bought into a company -- an entity has a value independent of the stock's momentary price. So, keep that in mind: they need people to want to pump money into BTC to make money. If I buy shares in a sustainably profitable company, I don't need to convince anyone of anything. Even if the price dips, the profits of the company can be distributed to the shareholders.
Don't ignore the posts on the energy footprint. Give them serious thought before investing: it impacts BTC's sustainability in addition to the environmental concerns.
From reading some responses to pro-BTC posts, I have the sense that some people with no ideological bias are afraid of missing out on the possibility of striking it rich and so only look at the trend lines without thinking about whether those trends are sustainable.
Contrary to what some have posted, a decade of positive growth isn't proof that BTC isn't (unintentionally) a sort of Ponzi scheme. One of the most notorious Ponzis (run by Bernie Madoff) went on for 20 years before being discovered (triggered by a stock market crash that unmasked the fraud).
It is possible it could transform, but I'd give serious consideration to the possible bad news before putting money into it.
in case anybody iterested to learn here is ood article about upcoming Taproot update.. some details are a bit technical but it's not that complicated for getting general overview what is Taproot about.
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/technical/taproot-coming-what-it-and-how-it-will-benefit-bitcoin
hint: yes, there are smart contracts in bitcoin and now they will be even better.
As you yourself said, you have no idea about how education and research is funded in other countries.
In many countries, a considerable proportion of university-level education is publicly funded. (In some countries nearkynall of it is publicly funded). A considerable proportion of the world's leading scientists' educations were wholiy or partly funded by public dollars. Even at private universities in the U.S., a considerable amount of funding for scientific research is provided by the government....that research forms the basis of much of graduate-level research. Not to mention that in the U.S. many of our leading universities are publicly-funded.
The research at private companies is, therefore, done by people who developed their expertise thanks to public funds. Without the public funding of their researchers' educations, those companies would not have the expertise to do their research and development.
In many countries...even more public money drives higher education and basic research than in the U.S.
If it weren't for government funding of scientific research we wouldn't have many of the technologies we rely on...some of which were the fruit of research directly funded by governments and much of the rest the result of work done be people whose expertise was paid for in part (often large part) by government spending.
On healthcare, your choosing to extrapolate from your experience in Slovakia to all publicly-funded healthcare is off-target. Health outcomes and efficiency of healthcare dollars is considerably higher in some countries with publicly-funded healthcare than elsewhere. This information is easy to find.
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You can't extrapolate from Slovakia to the rest of the world...or even to all social democracies.
my little amateurish analyse for today.. it's 19:15 here so basically most of day behind us, i hope nothinng special happens until ASIA markets open.. in general this day was positive. It's good we managed to break that red line,(first black circle) and even through bears tried to push us back (second black circle) we managed to go again above green line. Volume is low, so my optimism is stil cautious.
Anyway, so far good, curious if ASIA (markets will open few hours from now) will dump on us or they will wake up with bullish mood. They usually dump, so my buy orders on 31.5k, 28.7k and 24.6k are still waiting - my faith they will be filled is smaller and smaller , tough.
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You don’t get to over $1 trillion market cap (valuation prior to market drop, current market cap around $673 billion) by only appealing to Libertarians, Richard.
when we use here "libertariasm" like form of cursing, or something like being facsist or in general bad person who wants to do just bad things to other people (for examole steal their money through various ponzi schemes like Bitcoin) , inwould like to remember definition, i'm not sure everybody is deeply aware what it means
"Libertarians seek to maximize autonomy and political freedom, emphasizing free association, freedom of choice, individualism and voluntary association. Libertarians share a skepticism of authority and state power"
So yeah. Based on this definition, i'm fucking proud to be libertarian 😂 With every atom in my body.
Yes, there’s a lot of anti-libertarian propaganda thrown around as if it was factual and this occasionally happens on the right as well as the left. Why do they do it? Because both Left and Right have continued to lose political ground over the years.
My guess is we'll be stuck hovering between 35,000 and 37,000 for some time. The little guys are still licking their wounds and the big guys are all waiting out the uncertainty. I don't see any reason for it to significantly fall again. A return to a more gradual rise after a few weeks or months of consolidation would be the best thing long-term, and what I think is most likely to happen. BTC is beginning to behave more and more like stocks and ETFs.
I'm not even paying attention to daily moves at this point. It's going to be more like months before any reliable trend emerges. I'm totally convinced that'll be a healthy upward movement, so just parking things where they are and waiting for that. My guess is that's the general consensus as well, which is why we're in for a rather boring time for awhile.
If it breaks steadily above 37,000 $40,000 without a bunch of big retracements, then it's party time again.
^Above based on no expertise whatsoever, so definitely not advice.
Based on that definition, so would the framers of the US Constitution.
That’s good news, if this becomes the case.
MOST people are skeptical of state power. There is nothing particularly libertarian about that position. Those on the right that act as if this skepticism is unique to them shows either ignorance of other people's views.
People on the left are also largely skeptical of state and government intrusion. The main difference is what the various sides view as the acceptable and/or necessary roles for the government.
The notion of "maximizing" liberty is a meaningless trope? Probably most people see their views as "maximizing" liberty -- the question is what the balancing concerns and constraints are.
The differences are largely about how to achieve that liberty and what liberty means -- and whether one sees community as having a role in making sure that all the members have reasonable access to well-being.
Thanks. Good article. Lots to think about there. Smart contracts are indeed an interesting use case I hadn't thought about. The vast paperwork, monitoring, and enforcement of many complex agreements could be hashed out (pun intended) by just the participants and that agreement could become essentially unbreakable. Sucks for someone who gets taken advantage of because of not knowing what they're doing, but great for those who do.
I've needed to implement automatic supply-chain payment systems over EDI (Electronic Data Interchange) which were similar in function. They were horrendously complex to set up, test, and get up and running, but once that was done many man-hours were saved daily and payments flowed basically instantly once the contract (usually a purchase > delivery > acceptance flow) was fulfilled. The reward for participating in the automated workflow was lower pricing based on the supplier's reduced cost.
The user interaction side of this is very interesting to me. I picture setting up a smart contract for laymen will need involve something similar to enterprise workflow applications, with ways of setting up flow charts and approvals. All very doable, but with the advantage of not requiring the underlying infrastructure once the smart contract is in place.
Yeh, that beats PayPal by just a little bit.
This is not entirely true. Price you see on chart is mostly affected just by "little guys". Big guys (funds, institutions) are buying OTC (mostly) - off the desk. It means they are not using directly public liquidity pools (order book you see on exchange), but rather they use direct agreement with seller orchestrated by exchange (OTC is like VIP zone vor clients with high credit). Such transactions doesn't affect price action immediately (because they don't affect order book) but in long term (days, weeks) indirectly by fact, that number of sellers slowly declines.
What are BIG guys doing can be seen in onchain data, you see big transfers from exchanges into privste wallets.
Big guy are purchasing. Huge amount of bitcoin leaved exchanges in recent days.
There is more indices that this whole crash was orchestrated by big guys ... it's easy ot do such manipulation on such small market, when we will have marketkap 10trillions few years from now it will be lot less likely.
Also i hope people will learn to not panic just because of classic "china", "terher" , "carbon footprint" and similiar FUD, this market has still lot to learn, how to be resistent agains institutional tricks:-)))
Small guys are still very cautious. Some level of optimism starts to appear amongs top traders, but still they are cautious. Sideways for next 2 monts is very likely, as you said. I hope :-) Because when Bitcoin starts look stabilised in some range, traders starts to be bored and they jump on altcoins :-) I smell pretty nice altseason during summer in case that Bitcoin won't shit the bed :-))
This year i noticed interesting new strategy of some market players. Obviously some whales (just people like you or me, who were lucky to buy shitloads of BTC backmin days when prece was bellow $ and they were tough enoug to hold them till now) started to use interesting way how to fuck with other small retail players.
They know that people are now watching onchain data. What they do is:
you can see it on fact, that after dump most of outflow from exchanges goes to big wallets. Sometimes back to same walet which initially sent something to exchange :-)))
There is still lot to learn on those markets, but it's a lot of fun. Beautiful example of herd psychology. I like it a lot :-) When i watch chart, it's like watchinh multiple people thinking about what each other will do in next step. Price itself is just indicator how people are thinking
Yep, to me this has smelled like just that from the beginning. This is nothing that doesn't happen in all the rest of the markets. Just not often so dramatically. High volatility means high risk / reward, which is what some people want, and others should run away from. Fast.
I feel bad for anyone following this daily with much emotion wrapped up in it. The short term ups and downs are literally meaningless right now.
Never bring emotion to a crypto fight.
pretty strong argument for holding at least some Bitcoin for future possibility it will not go to zero 😂
there is more interesting thoughs by Paul Tudor Jones in replies in that thread... worth to read
I think a lot of the people who have any crypto at all fall into the responsible “no more than you consider that you don’t mind losing” category, and therefore the dynamics at play are a lot less frantic, more relaxed, more “fuck it, I’m not getting out of my chair for this” attitude when sharp rises or falls occur, and generally consider it a very background part of their lives.
Those that have perhaps more than they should have at stake are all over the place, overreacting and taking action. I don’t think that’s most people though – although they’re the noisiest, so you’d be mistaken for thinking they represent the majority.
yes... 90% of what i stacked till now is locked in cold wallet conservated for years... 10% at exchange just for fun trading, ready to lost it all without any emotion :-)) every time it exceeds more than 15-20% of total portfolio (jsppened slready once this year
) on exchange, i sent what's above 10% to cold wallet for next generations ...
it's good game. lot of fun.
There's a fascinating clamour of idiots over on eToro. Before, it was all rocket emojis, but that's given way to touchy belligerence.
The spam's a constant.
Happy to have this peaceful nook of considered and respectful yapping.
That first guy is not completely wrong... this is how order book looks at FTX, shitloads of sell orders, so there is obviously huge resistance above 36-37k ...
but on other exchanges there is also huge amount of buy orders around 35k so nothing surprising, we're going to range for some time ...
Which means - fucking AltSeason is on the way :-) I hope this time it will be good quality major projects pumping, not various dog shit coins like in feb/march
The hodlers will always keep hodling, but the wildcards are the noobs, who are attracted to the idea of instant riches by trading the trashcoins.
Ah, sorry for the confusion! Was more shocked by the responses he got, not what he was saying
Ah yes ... of course, classic dickheads :-))
Btw. if you are interested in trading, i can suggest you some very good twitter users, experienced traders sharing often true knowledge...
Thanks man. I'm trading a little bit, but over on the Binance Smart Chain mainly. It's a whole different thing over there.
I am totally guilty of @NeuM's analysis above! After doing my trashcoin due diligence, I've been focused on getting good positions on a few of the highly-volatile BSC tokens that haven't really started yet, but which I think have a good chance of growing if there is another bullrun. Some of the charity trashcoins being shilled by hipsters and Ivy Leaguers look promising from where I'm sat. They don't have to change the world or grow 100x to be worth my while, but I think a couple of them can manage 5-10x growth without much trouble, even if they don't get much attention. So long as there's another run. You can get 300% growth in an afternoon if you start out with a small market cap (<1M). The trick is weeding out the criminals, and not getting greedy. Also, it's incredibly precarious.
I don't really expect BTC to grow much more than 3-5x total before crypto winter sets in (if there is more growth) and I kind of expect it to drop down lower than it is now during the long crypto winter that'll come after. If I do well with the shitcoins, I expect I'll get some at some point. ETH too, and maybe even a bit of XTZ and ADA, but the long-term doesn't seem urgent just yet.
Anyway, I'm rambling, and I know you're no fan of the alts or the shits to begin with, so I'll stop. I imagine there are a few lurkers, quietly reading the crypto thread here and I also imagine they're quietly willing me to say yes @dendy, please do share these experienced traders' details with us! The people want to know! So for those guys and girls I'll say yes @dendy! Please do share those experienced traders' details with us
Listen, if you can make trading trashcoins work for you, then all the more power to you. The problem is, a lot of new folks jumped on the bandwagon and chasing momentum only lasts so long, especially for cryptos which have no real underlying value (no innovation, no development work, etc., such as DOGE).
Lol
Now back to bitcoin Dendy, I am still curious why you think it will dip much below 30 and most importantly why it will stay they're> @colonel_mustard said:
Why are you expecting a long crypto winter? And how long do you think it will be?