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Off-Topic discussion about Bitcoin and cryptocurrency.
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Comments
Of course, what if Coinbase was, all along, a fully operational front for the American government?
I'm distrustful of "the media" in general, and I do believe agendas are often at work, but in this case I think it's laziness and ignorance, not intent, in the media. They just don't generally dig in any more, and this kind of thing requires digging.
Another elaborate FBI sting, like this one?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/08/anom-encrypted-app-fbi-afp-australia-federal-police-sting-operation-ironside-an0m
I'm not being serious, obviously, and in case that needs clarifying
yeah definitely, that is it
Research material for for @dendy ... https://nypost.com/tag/dumbest-criminals/
It must’ve been a pretty elaborate sting
^ post of the day once again goes to @u0421793 😂
No kidding, just thinking of all the heroin they could have bought.
Lol i'm dead 😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣 That is some proper shit 😂🤣😂🤣😂😂
El Salvador becomes first country to adopt bitcoin as legal tender
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/09/el-salvador-bitcoin-legal-tender-congress
The economics look pretty rough. El Salvador is a dollarized economy, which means that they are not in control of their own currency and thus subject to all the risks involved, including default. Yet they are offering a USD guarantee to merchants who trade in Bitcoin. This is a massive risk, especially when you consider the volatility of Bitcoin. The government would be taking on all the downside with none of the upside.
A nation with its own sovereign currency has the power to issue that currency by fiat, for example to offer emergency liquidity to the financial sector during a crisis. So back in 2008 the reason that the whole financial system didn't collapse was because of central banks such as the Fed and the Bank of England providing liquidity to keep the payment system flowing.
Nations that don't issue their own currency can't do this, which is why the financial crisis lasted so much longer in the Eurozone (where countries don't issue their own currencies but use the Euro), and why countries like Greece and Italy were in so much trouble until the ECB decided to step in and act as a lender of last resort (even though this isn't allowed according to the treaties).
Being a currency issuer is much safer than being a currency user. The US and UK issue their own currency and can't default unless they are trying to peg the currency to gold, or another currency (as the UK was in 1992 when Soros attacked the pound and the UK had to break the peg and leave the ERM).
El Salvador is not a currency issuer, they can't really insure Bitcoin transactions because they will be vulnerable to price swings. If you can't print dollars you need to acquire dollars, and that's much harder to do.
"The world's most violent country* chooses bitcoin" makes a great tabloid headline though.
*the title win is from around 2016 as I recall, so it may well be out of date
They’re in a perfect position to adopt a policy of currency competition. Since they don’t have their own fiat currency, they’re open to new ideas. The US (and any President and Congress of either party which is in power) will continue to be incentivized to keep up the fiat dollar charade. And the EU and UK will continue to prop up their fiat dependencies which keep them in a controlling position.
probably nothing.. for sure has absolitely nothing to do with fact that in recent 20 months FED printed 30% of dollars in existence.. Repeat after me "there is no inflation"
https://www.wsj.com/articles/if-you-sell-a-house-these-days-the-buyer-might-be-a-pension-fund-11617544801
And @dendy, considering there will likely be a housing glut for decades after the Boomer generation has died off, I see the housing market long overdue for another massive crash. And this time it’ll be a long, long downhill slide. Right now there are not enough people to replace the dying generation. Where do these investors think the new home buyers are going to come from?
This is kind of pertinent, especially as it relates to El Salvador and the discussion around it.
Could Bitcoin be used as the World's reserve currency, in a digital version of the Gold Standard?
No, and here's why:
How are free-floating fiat currencies valued in the international money markets?
It's very simple: by supply and demand, in a standard free-market mechanism. If people want to hold the dollar, demand for the dollar goes up and so does its price relative to other currencies. If on the other hand people don't want to hold the dollar, demand goes down and so does its value. The exchange rate for any given currency is simply determined by how desirable that currency is on the international market.
Trade also plays an important role here though: a nation that is a net exporter of goods and services will trade goods with other countries in a variety of currencies, but to repatriate the profits back home they will then need to exchange the foreign currency for their own, thus driving up demand for their own currency. In practice that means that countries who are net exporters are likely to have a strong currency, whereas countries that are net importers will have a weaker currency, other factors notwithstanding.
But sometimes there might be other reasons why a currency is in demand: the fact that international oil trading is done with dollars, for example, drives up demand for the dollar (the "petrodollar"). The dollar is also used in many Latin American economies and can be used as a surrogate currency all over the world, which again drives up demand.
So basically the more important or stable a currency is deemed to be, the more it is worth and the higher its exchange rate will be. Stable, productive economies such as the US, the UK, the EU, Australia, Canada, Japan etc will have strong currencies. Countries with less stable economies will have weaker currencies.
Stable economies that are also net exporters will have an even greater advantage - Norway for example. Most countries however are net importers: the US, UK, France, Italy, and most of the EU are all net importers. The world's leading export nations are China, Germany, South Korea, and the oil-exporting nations.
A disadvantage of having a strong currency is that it makes your exports more expensive: the stronger your currency the more it will cost people living in other countries to buy your exported goods. This helps to create some balance in trade, since exporting nations will naturally see their currencies rise as they repatriate their profits home, which increases demand for their own currency.
One way around this is for the exporting nation to keep some of their gains in foreign countries, rather than repatriating them home. China does this for example: they sell goods to the US, which the US pays for in dollars. The dollars remain in the US economy until Chinese firms convert them to Yuan to realise the profits back in China, but of course doing this drives up the price of the Yuan, making Chinese exports less competitive. So Chinese firms might decide to hang on to their dollars instead, especially if they think the dollar has greater long-term value than the Yuan. So instead of exchanging those dollars for Yuan they will simply put them in US banks or buy US-dollar denominated bonds. This is why so much US debt is held by China, or at least by Chinese businesses.
If a country goes through a crisis the value of its currency will tumble, as the market decides that the currency is less desirable. For example after Brexit the value of the pound declined by 20% as markets decided the UK was a less attractive proposition. In extreme cases you might even get capital flight as investors flee a failing economy, which would result in a very large devaluation.
So the current system of free-floating fiat currencies is very effective at determining exchange rates because it is based on a true free market.
On a gold standard however, things are very different: exchange rates do not fluctuate according to market mechanisms, but are fixed. Each currency is pegged to the price of gold, and exchange rates are not flexible.
This means that governments and central banks need to maintain the peg, which is usually done via interest rates: if demand for a currency goes down, the central bank (or government) needs to increase their interest rate to attract investors. The drawback of this approach is that raising interest rates will affect the economy in other ways, usually by dampening demand (and thus growth). For example on Black Wednesday when the UK was trying to maintain the peg in the ERM, the Chancellor raised interest rates to 16%, and this put millions of homeowners in negative equity, and prolonged the housing slump that was ongoing at the time.
So by fixing the currency to a peg, governments and central banks lose control of their ability to set interest rates, often leading to unnecessary unemployment and recessions.
With a fixed currency regime you also no longer have a market-based exchange rate in international currency markets, everything is fixed and unable to respond to changes in trade or economic circumstances.
This gets even worse in terms of trade, because countries that are net exporters will accumulate currency that has to be redeemed for gold - there is no benefit to holding foreign currency since it doesn't influence the exchange rate. In the days of the Gold Standard nations actually had to ship gold abroad to pay for imports.
But because there is a fixed supply, there comes a point where importing nations no longer have enough gold to send abroad, and thus trade has to stop. If Bitcoin was the world reserve currency this is exactly what would happen: once China, Germany, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia had acquired most of the world's Bitcoin via trade then importing nations would no longer have enough Bitcoin to continue trading.
With a free-floating fiat monetary system the exchange rate fluctuates to balance this out (the more you export the higher your currency is valued, which makes your exports more expensive, in turn applying a limit to the trade imbalance). On a fixed exchange rate system there is no way to reach this kind of equilibrium without slowing trade altogether.
This means that the idea of Bitcoin becoming a world reserve currency like a digital Gold Standard is unworkable in practice, and that the current market-based system is much more effective and desirable.
As is often the case in this thread, Richard you are asking a loaded question so you can argue with yourself.
No one is suggesting Bitcoin should or will become the world’s reserve currency. It should be part of a basket of options to keep fiat currencies and profligate spending by out of control political power interests in check. End of comment.
Actually that is something that has been suggested by Bitcoin advocates, and in fact was mentioned by gavinski in relation to Trump earlier in the thread. You also often hear stuff about the petrodollar etc (which dendy has mentioned for example).
You might think I’m arguing with myself, I would say I’m simply explaining the economic realities, which in my opinion haven’t really been thought through by the Bitcoin brethren.
wow
This. Drop the mic.
Do you advocate for hard money or not? You can’t have it both ways.
The US doesn't have hard money now. This is already a moot question.
Follow Nayib Bukele on Twitter. One of the best accounts to follow right now.
Of course not, the US has a Fiat currency. Maybe you’re not following the conversation?
Maybe you’re not posing questions based on the state of things as they are today. The fiat Dollar note is not now and will not become hard money because it has gone too far. Its next big goalpost is collapse.
1/ never ever said in this discussion or anywhere else i'm expecting bitcoin becoming global reserve currency anytime soon. At least not it next 20 years and/or bellow 20-30 trillion dollars market cap.. (in case dollar will be in existence and not hyperinflated piece of shit 20 years from now :-))) After that milestone ? Hard to say, not that unthinkable because with that marketcap volatility will be dramatically smaller.
2/ you are often reffering to naratives which were mainstream in bitcoin community few years ago.. You need to understand Bitcoin is not just parabolic in terms of price discovery, it is parabolic also in terms of evolution of narratices. Current one, considered as mainstream on bitcoin comunity, is long term store of value. I repeat once and again long term. Years.
Just because somebody somewhere said something, which matches with what you said, doesn't mean it's mainstream opiniom in Bitcoin community.
Bitcoin will collapse long before the dollar does. It takes more than a mean tweet to devalue a real currency 😀
I don't always agree with you, but this one I fear very much you are right about.
Highly tangential, almost near the topic:
The original version of this song by Lord Invader, before it got stolen then sanitised then released.
I proved you already that those tweets are overrated and they have just short term impact, and in most cases they more like just adding to momentum together with more events, they are not initial triggers. Tha's just missinterpretation of mainstream media.
In long term they are basically irrelevant (see my point 2/)
Oh and also, try google about how Soros send GBP to knees. 1 man won over national currency.
Speculations and market manipulations are happening also on traditional stock and financial markets. Advantage of cryptomarket is it is a LOT more transparent. And it learns (reactions on Musk tweets are smaller and smaller). But yes, it's ugly anomaly, but as every anomaly it will decay.