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Off-Topic discussion about Bitcoin and cryptocurrency.

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Comments

  • @dendy said:
    good thing it's fake.

    this is BIG thing... and there are rumours neighbouring countries will follow later
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-57373058.amp

    also there is possible interesting implication but not sure if it is true... somebody said it basically means BTC becomes "foreign currency" in eyes of international law. Countries can't apply capital gains tax on purchases of goods and services with using foreign currencies.. If this is true, potentially HUGE world wide impact.

    Looking forward how this evolves.

    Yes, saw that earlier. Extraordinary development for Bitcoin.

  • @richardyot said:
    Looks like the anarcho-syndicalists have fallen out with the anarcho-capitalists. Who woulda thought…

    Okay, so you're here for the popcorn, too :)

  • @ervin said:

    @richardyot said:
    Looks like the anarcho-syndicalists have fallen out with the anarcho-capitalists. Who woulda thought…

    Okay, so you're here for the popcorn, too :)

    An entire country announces plans to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender - the market just shrugs its shoulders and nothing happens.

    Elon Musk posts a meme - the market tumbles 30%

    You see, I'm starting to think even popcorn is a better store of value than Bitcoin 🤣

  • @dendy said:
    i believe 25-26k is still not out of game as final 5th wave...

    we're following plan 👍

  • So the Musk tweets were predicted by that model? Remarkable.

  • @richardyot said:
    So the Musk tweets were predicted by that model? Remarkable.

    i don't care about tweets.. i just saw there potential for 5th correction wave from basic elliot's wave theory.. for now it holds, pretty curious if it fills the path to the final point that would be cool ...

  • The point I’m making is that there is no model in existence that can accurately predict market moves. It’s on a par with a perpetual motion machine or turning lead into gold. It doesn’t exist.

  • Contrary to my prediction, I didn’t win the lottery yesterday

  • @u0421793 said:
    Contrary to my prediction, I didn’t win the lottery yesterday

    I can fit that data to my model.

  • @dendy said:

    @dendy said:
    i believe 25-26k is still not out of game as final 5th wave...

    we're following plan 👍

    You were also following the plan two weeks ago when it was either drop to 32 or up to 42 or something, no? It's a pretty flexible plan. 👊

  • @u0421793 said:
    Contrary to my prediction, I didn’t win the lottery yesterday

    Called it.

    Double or nothing?*

    ...

    Sorry everyone, for the video confusion.

    I had some issues with the scripting, and that they don't present any real evidence. Also, the tone's a bit self-pitying for this kind of thing.

    I've not seen the real deal to compare it with.

    For the record, I don't condone threats or intimidation tactics from anybody, and I do think Elon's being a dick, toying with millions of people's finances. I'm not surprised that he's getting a bit of pushback from somewhere.

    This particular kind of attack has me thinking of witchcraft in the Middle Ages. Powerless little people trying to psych out kings from below the poverty line. We curse you Elon! Expect us!

    I had wondered if Twitter might be the first to step in, but I suppose that's a charged area.


    *not legally binding.

  • edited June 2021

    @ervi
    You were also following the plan two weeks ago when it was either drop to 32 or up to 42 or something, no? It's a pretty flexible plan

    not sure i understand your question... i posted here my possible scenario for next 5-10 days, i think i posted it 4 days ago ? I saw possibility of forming 5th (last) correction wave from Elliot Wave theory. I made also successfull trade based on this.

    Today i pasted another picture, where is visible that for now, price is following this predicted direction, which gives us possible bottom of this correction to area around 25.5k

    Not saying it is 100% what is going to happen. Just my bet based on my knowledge.

    I undersand for somebody who has no clue about technical analysis itmay look judt like lottery.

    Also @Gavinski asked my about my price guesstimates few days ago so trying to share how i think about price, and what is my short term analysis i use for planning my moves for next few days.

    No idea how is connected my 4 days old prediction for next few days with events happened 2 weeks ago...

  • It's off-topic I know, but I thought I would share this model that explains the peculiar motion of the planets in the night sky. It might not be comprehensible to those of you who aren't used to technical analysis, but it's very accurate :)

  • edited June 2021

     

  • richard nice model 😂

    it helps you predict with probability >50% any kind of future stochastic event ? Because you know, that's the ourpose of such model. So like i'm able to predict future price with probability high enough to be profitable, you should be able to predict, let's say next future impacts of meteorites (place and time) ... does it work ?

  • Oh yes, it’s rock solid, as long as the central assumptions hold! 😂

  • edited June 2021


    true story 🤣

  • edited June 2021

    @dendy, maybe we could start another Off-Topic Bitcoin/crypto thread to keep the conversations more “on topic”? I don’t see much value in responding to trolling comments every other post.

  • edited June 2021

    @NeuM

    ehm, ok, will post just relevant stuff from now and completely ignore trolling .. thanks for dragging me back on track, i'm easy to be distracted and loosing path :-)

  • @dendy said:
    @NeuM

    ehm, ok, will post just relevant stuff from now and completely ignore trolling .. thanks for dragging me back on track, i'm easy to be distracted and loosing path :-)

    ;)

  • Elliot Wave Theory is not a scientifically validated theory and is highly unreliable. It was proposed something like 80 years and has yet to shown to be reliably predictive.

  • edited June 2021

    Curious if anyone here as tried any of these AI bot trading services for crypto like Napbots etc

  • edited June 2021

    @Gavinski said:
    Curious if anyone here as tried any of these AI bot trading services for crypto like Napbots etc

    nope but discussed with guy who tried few and he told me : just forget it :-) Problem is as bot becomes mainstream (lot people are using it) it stops working .. it's simply because if multiple bots are trying to perform same strategy, usually most of them will loose and wins only the one with fastest internet connection and shortest ping latency, simply because it is faster.

    There are successful bots, but they are usually custom made and their owners do not share them. Best things are not available for masses :-) This basically means you first develop some mechanical strategy based on TA, and then you just program bot witch performs this strategy for you. But this is not easy job, it involves constant monitoring of bot and updating it's variables to adapt it to market changes, because trading based on TA means you need constantly adopt to market changes, adjust you strategy to new conditions. If you stay static, you loose.

    Definitely idea that you just run some bot and you get rich is myth. It doesn't work that way.

    Actually bots are very interested topic. In my opinion, behind most of those dips or pumps based on tweets and flash news in media are initially not people but bots. You can see it in exchanges order books - often for second orders like this appear in order books:

    36550.00 0.1btc
    36545.00 0.1btc
    36540.00 0.1btc
    36535.00 0.1btc
    36530.00 0.1btc
    36525.00 0.1btc
    36520.00 0.1btc
    36515.00 0.1btc
    ... etc

    Simply series of orders with same amount, with prices divided by same step. It's is very clearly visible what is happening there.

    They appear in second and then, if price moves in different direction, they again disappear in second and appear on different price levels.

    So obviously those orders are not made not by people but automated. Such buy/sell walls are in many cases responsible for initiating price momentum .. when price starts move faster, next thing what happens are futures liquidations, which causes price move even faster in given direction (if you have opened long, so you bough some btc with leverage, and price moves agains you, you hit stop loss, or if you're degent ape without stop loss then you get liquidated:)), which means your position is sell back to market at cuurent price, which pushes price even lower)

    Many people who really don't understand the dynamic of market and how exchanges work are thinking - it's just that simple "people are dumb, just reacting on Elon tweet and selling".

    But it's not that easy. Bots are used on all markets, but on bigger ones like FOREX it is not that visible because you can hardly make significant move of market when many trillions dollars are involved .. but very easily on smaller market.. rest is psychology..

    I did hear about bots which are simply monitoring twitter, facebook and mainstream media for articles with keywords like "china" "cryptocurrency", "ban" .. simpler ones are just scaning posts for specific words and then trying to guess if news are positive or negative. More sophisticated are using machine learning for getting overall mood of those news. They are are monitoring number of retweets, which accounts are given message retweeting and lot other analytic tools (including realtime monitoring of exchanges outflows and inflows)

    It's tough game. You can't outsmart them, you have to learn swim with them ;)

  • edited June 2021

    Found super interesting thing. Here i marked with arrows on chart exact time when i drew my prediction and point where Elon tweeted .. Didn't noticed this before. It really looks like movement down started BEFORE Elon's tweet - so obviously main momentum was not caused by tweet but simply reaching some important resistance which was rejected.

    Wondering nobody noticed it. There was then second leg down after tweet but that second was corrected back to same value relatively soon and then trend continued with 5th wave ..

    Looks like he is not THAT powerful :-) Yes, he is abble to add to existing mmentum, but his effect is realtively quickly correlated by market back to normal (of course in case it is not some major message like Tesla stopping accepting bitcoin as payment, folloed by huge FUD in media about china banning completely bitcon lol)

  • @dendy thanks a lot, very interesting, actually I was also starting to wonder if these bots were at least partly responsible for these sudden dips and rises. It is a kind of self fulfilling prophecy

  • @Gavinski said:
    @dendy thanks a lot, very interesting, actually I was also starting to wonder if these bots were at least partly responsible for these sudden dips and rises. It is a kind of self fulfilling prophecy

    Definitely. Whole technical analysis is self fulfilling prophecy :-)) It simply works, because significsntly big number of people are using same indicators and ideas and are trading based on term.

    Market is nothing but psychology.

  • @espiegel123 said:
    Elliot Wave Theory is not a scientifically validated theory and is highly unreliable. It was proposed something like 80 years and has yet to shown to be reliably predictive.

    Please take this kind of objectivity elsewhere, can’t you see we’re trying to get rich here?

  • It's just the usual inflation hawk scaremongering. We had dire warnings of hyperinflation in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 etc...

    There will be higher than usual inflation this year, partly due to reopening, and of course from the stimulus. But there should also be higher than usual growth, and as long as inflation doesn't outstrip growth it will be fine.

    It's way too early to be warning about some persistent inflationary problem, for the simple reason that this only exists in the minds of inflation hawks.

  • It can't be said often enough: there is a difference between inflation and hyperinflation.

    Certain businesses hate ANY inflation which is not to say that the any inflation that they are afraid of is actually bad for consumers.

    A lot of the financial world is very focused on maximizing the profit/income of wealthy individuals and large corportations -- and could care less about the impact on actual people.

    Sometimes keeping inflation locked down is not beneficial.

    There are people for whom it is an article of faith that "all inflation is bad". Nothing can convince them otherwise.

This discussion has been closed.