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If it makes anyone feel better about what's coming, nearly every profession will be replaced by A.I., not just low-hanging fruit like writers, artists and musicians.
On the other hand, professions will adapt and completely new careers will develop. What takes dozens, hundreds or even thousands of people to do now, might be compressed to one person.
I think one-person music labels/movie production houses and possibly even one-person medical services might replace what exists today (with the right combination of A.I. and robotics). Even large-scale manufacturing will eventually be possible with very few employees. Shipping/logistics might take a bit longer to get there, but at some point with automation that also becomes possible.
Hmmm…
Neither Van Morrison or Tom Waits is on my list of fuckable people - just sayin’ 😂😂
It’s hard to criticize AI as fake and fraud when we in the same time makes acoustically sounding music with mystical small thin gadgets, like Pianoteq, or SWAM instruments - in the beginning of music history everything was voices and rhythmic thru wooden chops, but later on, people began making sounds with wires (strings) and blowing thru tubes (flutes)…
What I mean is, even the piano and chembalo was a fake way to play string instruments according to old fashioned musicians way back in time…
So, we must just wait and see what AI bring to the table in near future…
I too am from ward '75 and for me in game dev graphics the introduction of this stuff at this stage means I just need to own more, do more, learn more, control more; both with AI related stuff and with non AI stuff. Will it push me into places I can't or don't want to handle and then I am toast? Dunno. But yah, I have seen people bail on the industry the past couple years because of it. Either they were bumped by those who use it and they never got a handle on it or they simply see no enjoyment in using it and that things will just get worse for them. Some are just ducking and weaving finding companies or industries with fairly strict policies against it, but in time it will be there too.
As for music, I recall a few years ago a healthy community of fairly faceless beat makers who created brands based on a name. That stuff will likely be hit very hard.
For game audio, which was already extremely small shops or one man ops already I have seen people do great things with the voice synthesis... oh yah... those poor voice actors... sigh. Yah gotta be adaptable and a bit of a generalist. Probably doesn't hurt to be pretty on YT or insta.. oh wait, face swaps coming heh, everybody pretty, yay!
Etc. Yah real world gigs and plastic surgery ftw I guess.
I’m referencing the millions that buy popular music from Artists like Taylor Swift, Drake, Justin Bieber or Billie Elish. It’s reminiscent of cult worship.
Not that you might not worship your favorites using other criteria… the psychology of worship is fascinating and in the same realm as religion, IMHO.
Accelerationism in a nutshell.
This is exactly right, and is in fact exactly why this technology has been so readily embraced - and is so relentlessly pushed - by Really Damn Big business interests. Which, in turn, is why I have the reaction I do, to the surrender to its glamor by the very people whose domains are being aggressively intruded upon simply to squeeze yet another dram of Value.
If you like.
The times of folks having a 30 year career in something is over. I've got friends whose kids are at primary school (UK). I wonder what jobs will still be available for them to do once they finish their education. Another friend I have is expecting their first. By the time that kids 20 we'll be way past A.G.I. We'll have A.I systems that are hundreds of time smarter then the smartest person on the planet. We'll have robots that are faster, stronger, more accurate and able to do any manual job that a human being ever could and they won't sleep, need to go on holiday or complain about conditions and they'll be cheap.
Folks go on about jobs getting replaced by A.I but say it's okay because other jobs will open up. It's not going to happen. Those new jobs will be done by A.I too and they will be done better than a human. People have no idea what a devastating impact this is going to have on us. This isn't new technology replacing older technology so we use the new technology. This is new technology replacing humans. We have no where to go. I honestly can't think of a single occupation that would be immune from this. 10 years from now our greatest minds and thinkers will have a very hard time trying to understand what an advance A.I. 10 years after that it would be like trying to explain quantum physics to a dog. The intelligence gap will be that large and it will continue to grow.
Please who say "Old man screaming at the sky" have no idea what's coming down the pipe.
I do not agree that people will be completely removed from the equation. Automation will be able to replace labor, not ideas. As long as people understand this element of supply and demand, they won't be easily replaced. Being the person who lays the bricks, drives the cars, picks the plants or builds the widget will mean unemployment. The person who dreams up the widget, service or the latest song won't be out of a job. Besides... if the goal of a job/work is money, then it might only take one idea, doggedly pursued, to make one's living.
If A.I. and robotics suddenly means people need to redefine their own place in the world, that is what will happen.
Hundreds of millions of people have only labor to offer.
That seems a bit reductive. People are more complex than one might think.
If garbage music is played on an acoustic guitar, is it still garbage music? What if the garbage music was played on a marimba? If you don’t like it, it doesn’t matter that tool was used when you heard what came out of the speakers.
Also here’s the obligatory essay from Tom regarding machines and music from 2004.
http://symbioid.com/pdf/Tech/Collaborating with Machines - Jenkinson.pdf?view=FitH
While I don’t agree with completely, there is a viewpoint made here which could be applied to modern day software and even the use of AI
And little money to afford the energy, the roof over the head, the food to live.
We gaze into the looking glass, it’s reflection seems so intoxicating…
I don’t know how the money side of things is going to work.
Oh yeah, that makes me feel a whole lot better... LOL
It would be billions, globally.
The notion that they can just become "ideas people" to make a living is crazy.
Even if they could all come up with "ideas", the world doesn't need that many ideas.
The sad truth is a large percentage of people will have their lives wrecked as a result of Ai taking their jobs.
Havn't machines, automations and AI already changed the world to become a world of labourfree lifes?
The cows get milked by machines, the forrest is cut down by machines, the farmers use machines to do almost everything, including using big drones that can automatic spray the fields with chemicals against insects like grasshoppers...
I think average people haven't noticed this massive changes to human life on earth, and, do we like it?
I agree 100q%. I’m not saying some are being naive but I do think the major upheavals in our society from the COVID pandemic, political divisions in the U.S., gun violence, war in Ukraine and the complete breakdown in Gaza have blunted the social conscience and our ability to have foresight into the future. Most of us are just trying to make it through the day; the philosophical issues relating to AI just isn’t on the front burner.
I have a hard time believing the economy and tenured careers won’t be majorly impacted by AI technologies. We’re already seeing cannibal capitalism when the top 1% DOUBLED their wealth during the pandemic and many middle class families now view fast food as a luxury.
And while some will say my tinfoil hat is on too tight, the very real possibility of AI models and algorithms beħcoming self aware is not just the purview of science fiction movies. 20 years ago I would’ve agreed that it’s silly to think that computers could think or make decisions but now it seriously is a possibility…
I wonder how Ai will change the software industry?
Will you be able to say to Ai "make me a photo manipulation app that does everything PhotoShop does" and it builds it?
That will be child’s play, the real danger will be the technological power race that will ensue as more and more freedoms are granted to A.I. with the hope ‘our’ A.I. has a technological edge over any adversaries A.I.
So, Adobe will be out of business but the real problem is WW3 run by Ai...?
We only need AI for one of those possibilities, human stupidity is making the other a distinct reality.
This is why open source is so important for AI. it's just like a virus, with open source software viruses can be crushed quickly. In the future there will be so many so called "good" AI working with us they will collectively crush any "bad" AI very easily as soon as it is discovered as they will vastly outnumber them.
All the more reason for nations to work together with treaties and regulations etc.
I haven’t spotted many ‘good’ viruses amongst the many reports of bad ones and A.I. will have a massive degree of autonomy to create code, so debugging its creative content I do think would mostly beyond human control, given it’s speed in comparison to human resources.
It's just the way the sytems are being built and designed, they won't be any more autonomous than they need to be, and yes all the different AI will be able to spot the errors and bad code before humans can. It's a safety in numbers thing.
Here's an interesting example of audio 'remapping' so you can turn any kind of track into anything else (for example turning a singer into a trumpet).
This is probably what Apple should be doing for both GarageBand and Logic Pro:
That was amazing. Shows you what a talented musician can do with state of the art A.I music tools.