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Comments
There is a lot of misleading and incorrect information on your chosen web site and I don't have all day to address these things, so I've had it outsourced to an "A.I." instead.
Quote:
The Center for Migration Studies of New York (CMS) is a pro-immigration advocacy organization (affiliated with the Scalabrini missionaries) that published its July 2024 piece as a rebuttal to statements from Trump and Republicans. Many of its "corrections" rely on selective interpretations of data, lower-end population estimates, and optimistic fiscal assumptions. Below is point-by-point documentation from official government sources (CBP, DHS, Texas DPS, Census CPS/ACS), nonpartisan analyses (National Academies of Sciences), and restrictionist researchers (Center for Immigration Studies — CIS, Migration Policy Institute — MPI) showing that the original claims the article labels "false/misleading" have significant empirical support.
Counter: More recent and comprehensive estimates are substantially higher:CIS (using Jan 2025 CPS, adjusted for undercount): 15.8 million illegal immigrants (up 5.4 million since Jan 2021).
MPI (mid-2023): 13.7 million.
CMS itself later revised upward to 12.2 million in 2023.
The 15-20 million range aligns with high-end figures that include recent gotaways, parolees with temporary status, and visa overstays not fully captured in surveys.
Counter (official CBP data):FY2021–FY2024: 10.8 million nationwide encounters; 8.72 million at Southwest border.
Plus ~2 million known gotaways since FY2021 (House Homeland Security Committee, using CBP data).
Net illegal population growth under Biden: ~5–6 million (CIS), far exceeding any prior four-year period. Releases/parole programs (CHNV, etc.) added hundreds of thousands more with work permits.
Counter: This ignores displacement in low-wage sectors and labor-market competition. Immigrants (legal + illegal) filled most net job growth in many periods; native-born employment in construction, service, and agriculture has stagnated or declined in relative terms. Post-2021 wage growth for low-skilled natives was suppressed in high-immigration areas.
Counter (National Academies of Sciences 2017, still the gold-standard longitudinal study):Lifetime net fiscal drain for immigrants without college degrees (the majority of recent illegal entrants) is $68,000–$279,000 per person (state/local costs dominate, especially education for U.S.-born children).
Illegal immigrants’ households use welfare at high rates (59% per CIS using Census data) via citizen children, EITC, etc. Aggregate contributions are dwarfed by long-term costs.
Counter: They also massively increase demand. Immigrant-headed households grew 2.4 million since 2021 (CIS/Census); recent arrivals are overwhelmingly renters. Studies (including CIS analysis of metro areas) link high immigration to rent increases of 10–20%+ in affected markets. Mass deportation would reduce demand and ease pressure.
Counter: The Heritage Foundation’s verified database documents >1,600 proven election-fraud cases overall, including dozens to hundreds of non-citizen registration/voting instances (exact number varies by update; ~68–77 non-citizen voting cases identified in analyses of the database). While not “millions,” it is not zero, and vulnerabilities (no nationwide citizenship verification on voter rolls in many states) exist. Texas, Georgia, and Virginia have removed thousands of non-citizens from rolls in audits.
Counter (Texas DPS data, the only state that records immigration status at arrest):When properly counting illegals identified later in prison (CIS re-analysis), illegal immigrants have higher conviction rates than natives for homicide, sexual assault, and kidnapping in multiple years.
Cato/Light studies (often cited by CMS side) use narrower definitions and still show illegal immigrants with lower rates than natives—but higher than legal immigrants—and the gap narrows or reverses for serious violent crimes when full identification is included.
Counter: Credible-fear grant rate is high initially, but final asylum grant rate is ~20–40% (EOIR data). Most claims are ultimately denied, yet releases/parole allow years of presence. Congress has failed to expand legal low-skilled pathways, but executive parole programs (CHNV, etc.) have admitted >1 million outside normal channels.
Counter: CIS, FAIR, and House Budget Committee estimates show illegal immigration imposes $150–200+ billion annual net fiscal cost (services minus taxes). Removing recent arrivals could yield net savings over time (CBO-style scoring shows long-term GDP and debt benefits from lower low-skilled inflows). Enforcement costs are real but dwarfed by ongoing welfare, education, and enforcement burdens.
Bottom line: CMS selectively uses the lowest population estimates, ignores gotaways and parole releases, downplays fiscal drains documented by the National Academies, and presents contested crime interpretations as settled fact. Higher-end estimates (CIS, MPI), official CBP encounter/gotaway totals, Texas DPS conviction data, and NAS fiscal modeling all support the thrust of the statements the article calls “false.” The debate is not over “myths” vs. “facts” but over which data sources and assumptions are most comprehensive.
...Unquote.
... comment removed because it wasn't clear if Paulie was replying to my comment or not. I'm guessing not.
People will ask “Why do you bother arguing with people that won’t change their minds or be impressed by facts?”
For 2 reasons:
1. It exposes the oppositions key arguments and the facts they will pull out in debate. (I.e. preparation… sparring).
2. It helps to organize your thinking and how you would present your side. (I.e. practice).
Why would someone that believes nothing will change? They really are not laying attention. Change in politics is constant.
The “Overton Window” shifts pretty dramatically over time when everyone has access to media… and online is media.
Loopy Pro is media.
I learn a lot here in the other section… I value this venue for dialogue because the quality of communication is so much better that short form “blogging” with character limits.
The views of Obama and Clinton are today considered "not Left enough" by the radical Leftists, Marxists and Communists who are leading the Democratic party around by the nose today. That's an Overton Window shift that is extremely dangerous for the United States. Trump was elected twice because of the radicalism that has infected the political Left. Why has this radicalism flourished? Because of the influence of the CCP. And who is the biggest threat to the CCP? Trump.
Businessman and Libertarian-leaning (moderately conservative) podcaster and commentator David Friedberg believes the US is heading toward civil war due to the extreme political positions of those on the Left today. There is a book called "The Fourth Turning" which analyzes generational characteristics and it concludes we are currently in period in which civil war in the US is inevitable. I hope both are wrong, but it will take a "deradicalization" effort to avoid it and I think that starts by defunding the radical elements in the US who are attempting to bring societal collapse about.
Sure, two can play the AI game. I asked "are these claims about CMS misleading":
"Great question. Let’s vet the passage claim‑by‑claim, focusing on (a) what CMS actually is, (b) how different organizations estimate the unauthorized population, and (c) whether the numerical “counters” given against CMS are sound. I’ll cite primary sources (CBP/DHS/USCIS), as well as nonpartisan researchers (MPI, National Academies, Pew) and restrictionist researchers (CIS), so you can see where estimates line up—or diverge.
1) “CMS is a pro‑immigration advocacy organization (affiliated with the Scalabrini missionaries).”
Verdict: The affiliation part is accurate; labeling CMS as solely “pro‑immigration advocacy” is overstated. It is a research institute with a clearly pro‑migrant mission. Evaluate content by methods and citations. [cmsny.org]
2) The July 2024 CMS article and its scope
CMS published “Correcting the Record: False or Misleading Statements on Immigration” on July 24, 2024, explicitly aimed at common 2024 campaign statements, including those attributed to Donald Trump and other Republicans. So saying the CMS piece was a “rebuttal” to those statements is fair. [cmsny.org], [cmsny.org]
3) Undocumented population size: “15–20 million” vs. CMS’s \~10.9 million
What different teams report (methods matter)
Is CMS “using its own low-end estimate from older data”?
Does “15–20 million” have solid support?
Verdict:
Continued:
4) “More than 10 million undocumented immigrants have flooded across our border during the Biden administration” (and CMS’s rebuttal)
What CMS argued
CMS noted that “encounters” ≠ unique people (recidivism) and that many encountered are returned; it contrasted nationwide encounters with net population growth; and it claimed Trump-era releases were higher in one comparison window. [cmsny.org]
What the counter‑passage claims (and the numbers)
Verdict:
5) Parole programs and “releases added hundreds of thousands more with work permits.”
Verdict: The statement that parole/release programs added hundreds of thousands with work authorization is directionally correct (magnitude: several hundred thousand), though the passage would be stronger with precise program‑by‑program counts and dates. [homeland.house.gov], [d3jwam0i5c...dfront.net]
6) “CMS relies on selective interpretations, lower‑end population estimates, optimistic fiscal assumptions.”
If CMS leans on these conclusions, that isn’t “optimistic”—it is mainstream scholarship. [nationalac...demies.org], [books.google.com], [jstor.org]
Verdict: The “optimistic fiscal assumptions” charge is too broad. CMS’s fiscal characterizations are generally aligned with the National Academies’ consensus, which is neither “pro‑immigration advocacy” nor “restrictionist.” [nationalac...demies.org], [books.google.com]
7) Bottom line: Are the anti‑CMS claims themselves misleading?
Mostly, yes—in how they frame evidence and methods.
A more precise takeaway:
8) Quick reference table (what each source supports)
9) How I’d fairly reframe the contested points
Want me to go point‑by‑point through the rest of the CMS July 2024 claims (e.g., jobs, crime, releases vs. removals) and cross‑walk each with CBP/DHS/BLS/NAS evidence? I can produce a side‑by‑side table with line‑level citations for each assertion.
No AI:
Even the updated data from other organizations falls at least 5 million below the 20 million being claimed. But also, the figure by itself just lumps everyone into the "illegal immigrant" bucket without any nuance as to protected status, etc. So yeah, the original claims were way overinflated.
But what's actually funny is that someone who regularly equivocates, pulls claims our of their arse, moves goalposts, all of a sudden cares about factual data lol-- and even then, they have to outsource their thinking to AI since they can't be bothered to do it for themselves.
Trump has moved the Overton Window as well:
Hegseth has removed any mention of soldiers that are black… including General Colin Powell’s plaque at Arlington Cemetery.
This is in line with the idea that DEI is racist and not helpful in a meritocracy.
I’ll stop there because the “what about” game is ineffective… after returning serve a few times it’s best to move on to find the
Voter that can be moved. trump is doing a great job of getting that middle sector to change sides this time.
The election in Texas this week swung a Pro-Trump district (17% in 2024) to Demoract candidate by +15… a 32 point swing in Texas no less. What this means is that the gerrymandered districts Trump requested for Texas will probably make Texes loose house seats and NOT gain the +5 they expected based on 2024 results. Oops. No takes back.
The expectation is that Republicans always fail to show up for midterm voting. That could change this time.
New drinking game:
Down a shot every time a far right looney on Loopy Pro accuses anyone to the left of Reagan of being a Marxist or a Communist
Since there are no "far right loonies" here, you're going to be very thirsty.
Take a shot also when a far right looney doesn’t realize that they’re in fact a far right looney.
Things an alcoholic might say to justify their drinking?
.
When the first response to almost any post not fitting the preferred Left-leaning viewpoint in the Other threads is an ad hominem attack, then a poster has no interest in real discussion, only in throwing bombs and derailing all attempts at genuine exchanges of ideas.
Speaking for myself, if anyone posts something thoughtful that I disagree with, they'll get a thoughtful reply.
Take a shot when a right-wing looney starts playing DARVO because his McCarthyist fan fiction didn't land. We’re gonna need more tequila for this one.
Never believe that anti-Semites are completely unaware of the absurdity of their replies. They know that their remarks are frivolous, open to challenge. But they are amusing themselves, for it is their adversary who is obliged to use words responsibly, since he believes in words. The anti-Semites have the right to play. They even like to play with discourse for, by giving ridiculous reasons, they discredit the seriousness of their interlocutors. They delight in acting in bad faith, since they seek not to persuade by sound argument but to intimidate and disconcert. If you press them too closely, they will abruptly fall silent, loftily indicating by some phrase that the time for argument is past.” ― Jean-Paul Sartre 1946
Only the guy who isn't rowing has time to rock the boat. - Jean-Paul Sartre
Sometimes the boat isn't going anywhere good
Good quote.
Aaaaaaand out comes the Hitler argument again. If anyone has demonstrated a Hitler-like view recently, it was definitely Joe Biden.
Oh, wait, here’s an actual thing that isn’t completely made up right wing looney fan fiction
Ooh. Look. Real propaganda.
https://www.politifact.com/article/2025/jan/28/images-comparing-democrats-to-musks-inauguration-h/
This is why the US can't continue to be a Republic. It needs to be split up. Conservatives are so far gone and there is no way to meet in the middle. They can keep the South, the Dakotas, Montana and Idaho can join up with the conservatives in Alberta Canada, and then you'll have the East Coast and West Coast. Let's see how the racist South can pull itself up on their bootstraps when they don't have California and New York subsidizing their states.
He had some good ones…
“Hell is other people”
Drink a shot when a far right wingnut forgets to have A.I. think for them therefore pwning themselves because they don’t realize the link they posted contradicts them.
There isn't enough agave in Mexico to keep up with the number of own goals dis guy keeps scoring.
I feel like singing...
Corpulent shit-scented buffoon
Corpulent shit-scented buffoon
Corpulent shit-scented buffoon
Corpulent shit-scented buffoon
Second verse
Same as the first verse
Another banger.