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Great summary of the only useful takeaway (IMO) of the last 26 pages.
The housing bubble was essentially a nationwide wide pyramid scheme where everyone from home owners pulling out home equity by refinancing every few years to rating companies who gave high ratings to financial products that were simply high risk loans repackaged, to the CEOs of Wallstreet invest firms making money from all the transactions due to the economy’s increased spending driven by the home loans contributed to the inevitable collapse. It was never sustainable and like the mark in a pyramid scheme they didn’t bother to consider the idea that if it looks too good to be true, it probably isn’t.
Here’s a story on the CDC analysis about how getting the virus can cause significant health issues for young people.
Helpful article for anyone concerned that President Trump could cancel elections for his own gain: https://news.yahoo.com/could-trump-delay-november-election-234714948.html
It was suggested elsewhere that this would be the best thread for this article.
Just finished reading this and immediately thought of everyone here.
It may be comforting. It may not be. Depends on your presuppositions, I guess.
Don't think it's been posted here. Apologies if it has.
I hope it helps you navigate the reality in which we all find ourselves.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/
That’s an interesting article @lsv, but does not change the great possibility of hospital overload... which was not happening with regular flu outbreaks (when there is a vaccine I imagine it will take its place with seasonal flu strains).
His points are valid -- we don't have enough data to understand what is going on or how to make accurate projections. But, since the data suggest a reasonable possibility of a very bad outcome, it seems a dangerous bet to bet on the best-case scenario. Since, we won't know that we were wrong about the best-case until it is too late to act.
One hopes that as we get more and better data that the various people modeling the outbreak will have models that point the way to a course of action less draconian than what we have now. We will know a lot more in a few weeks.
One of the challenges will be that public policy moves are not agile. Politicians and bureaucracies have a lot of inertia. We certainly run the risk of decisions being made now and becoming entrenched based on today's projections when things may look very different in 2 or 3 weeks.
The takeaway that I get is not that social distancing is the wrong thing to be doing at the moment but that the scientists need to be agile and be rigorous in our information gathering and constantly re-do the risk/benefit analysis to see if there are less draconian responses that have acceptable outcomes.
(This would have been much better if our early response had been better. We basically wasted a month or six weeks when less extreme measures would have given us a lot of information and possibly have contained the virus.)
p.s. the reason why discussion belongs here and not in the positive advice thread is that the other thread is intended for practical fact-based well-vetted information for dealing with the COVID-19 and not discussions of public policy. We could probably use yet another thread for non-venting discussion of the various issues. There are a lot of interesting to consider aspects apart from the political venting that many of us felt the need to get off our chests.
@LinearLineman
You are correct. Precautionary measures will have the greatest initial impact on hospital load #s.
I found the article to be balanced in it's analysis. Cautioning that much premature data-wringing may increase the wrong perception of how things are unfolding.
I think epidemiologist and public health folks understand that. Journalists and politicians (independent of affiliation) not so much.
One of my big worries it that now that we have entered a chaotic period -- there will be power plays to use it to advantage.
@espiegel123 said:
Precisely.
We're down to a skeleton crew at work & steps are being taken for everyone to work from home. Simple precautions are warranted. Distancing, hand washing. The Five Items from the CDC list, etc. Even so, our decisions need to be based on the most accurate data available.
I would add the old adage: An Ounce of Prevention is worth a Pound of Cure. That's our attitude here.
I with you on this. I think it's the weakest link in the chain right now.
Btw, here is another piece in statnews that is a response to the Ioannidis piece that says what I was trying to say better:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/we-know-enough-now-to-act-decisively-against-covid-19/
One other thought. I just checked out the Twitter-verse re: Ioannidis, and it strikes me that there are a lot of bad-takes on the article (on every possible side). I have no idea what actions he thinks we should be taking.
It is a matter of fact that we don't have enough data to know for sure what is going on -- which is the main point of his essay. It seems to me that is a simple fact.
It is an important debate that people need to have with good faith: what do you do with incomplete data when the consequences of being wrong are staggeringly bad and when you have a limited window for action.
Thanks. It's funny. Past few days I've been thinking a lot about Confirmation Bias. When it was pointed out that Ioannidis' piece contained contrarian writing to spark discussion, I hadn't picked up on that when I read his article. Perhaps, my own CB was at work.
Personally, I'm more in the camp of Lipsitch regarding the immediate need for precautions without the underlying assumption that COVID19 will just burn out quickly. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.
I think these two articles make good bookends.
*Just seeing your new response. I'm sure it's being gamed to the hilt on social media. It Game Theory 24/7 on most social media sites generally.
Yes. Everything in good faith. It's one reason why partisanship can be so counterproductive regardless of who engages in it.
All true. Now what changed over the banking systems in the past: banks were audited for debt to loan ratios. Due to a lack of regulatory oversite and redefining investment houses a a type of bank the biggest "hyper-faux-banks" we allowed to package debt and sell it as an invest. Those financial product we're rated
as "Class A" collateral back products with extremely low probabilities to default on the return rates.
The regulators of these investment products (a new type of bonded (assured) investment) looked the other way and did not apply anything close to reasonable diligent protections for the consumer of these bonded assets. The consumer of bonded assets are pension plans, large institution that manage assets
for risk averse institutions as a hedge.
So, the "pyramid scheme" for home (re)financing was balanced on the other end with packed shit bombs of debt on the other end with no one holding the risk except the home buyer and the pension plans. Everyone in the middle passing risk between those 2 group scraped off service fees of 3-6% for the $5-6T shift of "money" in the form of obligations that could never be met.
Now the biggest "banks" (i.e. investment monoliths) decided to sell "insurance" for the Class A assets so they could put more risk on the books since every exposure for these shit-bonds could be claimed to also be hedged for losses and they scarped another fee off these products. Of course, for this crazy "new market" they were adding 1T's to their general ledger and they wrapped that risk in other dubious levels of
collateral sleigh of hand.
So, blaming the pyramid scam stooge for over re-fi'ing and buying dozens of homes misses the whole game that took the Financial Sector off the hook. In fact they got injections of cash by printing $1T's of new dollars to make it look like we didn't actually pay them off to keep the "large bank" model in place. In fact they swopped in on the housing inventory and waited a few months and got back to selling house at market values and the system is still moving forward using "internal controls" in the industry to prevent
another collapse of the economy.
And here's another "Black Swan" event to test the resistance of the financial system to cash flow shocks.
Maybe they can grab the assets of the dead to help pay the costs of mitigating the damaged done to the economy. After all they are really the problem and should foot the bill. Everyone else recovered and can contribute by getting back to work, buying stuff and assuming more serviceable debt.
I'm telling you reading economists is really helpful to get somewhere close to cause and effect relationships that go beyond the headlines in to some careful analysis, modeling and prediction.
But like with political pundits you need to test the advisor for ideological blind spots and try to find a trusted source.
Here is an appropriate time line, in Trump’s own words, of how he has always known this was a pandemic. Please try to ignore Lemon. He is a bit stuffy And officious. How can people swallow this shit?
@LSV : I agree. When one reads the Lipsitch piece and his brief mention of his phone call -- one is reminded that in science (and philosophy and math...any discipline that is based on rigor) people look at differing interpretations and responding to them as a part of a methodology as a way of arriving at better understanding rather than as a way of scoring points or bringing someone down. They totally understand that "I think your argument is wrong and this is where I disagree" is not a personal attack and they will see where things go.
There were some interesting threads about the Ioannidis article hidden amongst the chatter. One was from an epidemiologist at Harvard who basically said, everything he says about what we don't know is right -- so we'd better start getting to know that stuff.
One of the critical tests he mentioned is one to test for the antibodies -- so that we can figure out how many people were infected and now have some immunity as that will let us figure out where we are in the cycle. (Not to mention that once we now how to test for that, those people can get back to being out in the world and start serving their communities)
I don’t find this comforting because it’s main point seems to be that we don’t have enough information to know what the long term effects of the virus will be or if we’re managing it in a way that makes things worse or better.
Hoping for the best and planning for the worst is where I’m at now as there’s not much I can do at this point beyond staying home. My country wasn’t prepared to deal with the virus. Many in the public didn’t get enough information that they trusted to take action to limit its spread. For many, staying at home is a severe and perhaps unsustainable hardship in terms of food and shelter. I hope the research and monitoring being done now will provide more answers so it can be managed more effectively.
In the meantime I hope my fellow citizens are able to manage their social isolation.
A Cautionary Covid-19 Fairytale
Once upon a time there was a middle aged iPadOS synth head who grew more stir crazy with each passing day. He‘d ran out of new apps to buy. The joy experienced creating music on the go during commutes and stolen moments at home had been replaced with a sore shoulder and back. Peering through the blinds of his kitchen window at the neighbors gathered around the bbq with their steaks and beers weakened his resolve. It broke when they started to jam.
He’d pressed the randomIzation button of life. Catch the virus, become immune, release the chains of social isolation. Two weeks after the infection party he dialed 911 with labored breath only to hear an all circuits are busy message endlessly looping.
Six months later he’s prosecuted after a neighbor identified him from the viral YouTube live stream of the party. There are too many cases so he got off lightly by agreeing to a misdemeanor plea deal and a $1000 fine. An irate mob shot up the house and violated the beloved iPad Pro. The wife filed for divorce, his boss fired him, and the dog peed on his bed.
. . . to be continued
It kills flies? (Sorry. Had to swing the humor bat.)
Trump's MO whenever exposed to criticism is to just deny the record and re-frame his stance an example of his genius. I just change the channel. No point in expecting the leopard to change his spots. Lying is in his DNA... it's his business model for getting money from people. The essential tool of the "Confidence Man".
"They told me this would just not happen in the US but I said "I'm not so sure" and took steps to
prevent the disaster." It sounds so credible too for the low information citizen. And his lies are backed by an agile "news business" that can also pivot instantly too a new contradictory line and discount the facts of the past. They ridicule their detractors for "politicizing" the situation for personal gains. Classic implementation of Orwell's Doublespeak propaganda mechanism.
It's starting to flounder... people can smell the rat when they start hauling away loved ones and it generates rage for those responsible.
But the pattern is for the "conservatives" destroy their credibility for a "liberal" regime (which has become increasing conservative) which works for 4-8 years to set the system back into functioning order and they are ousted by an angry electorate that's open to being manipulated into voting for extreme changes.
This is the pendulum of US politics since WW2.
Kennedy/Johnson
Nixon/Ford
Carter
Reagan/Bush
Clinton
Bush2
Obama
Trump/Pence (I expect the Repub's will opt for Impeachment to survive 2020).
Anyone else have some conspriracy rants they'd like to slip into this polluted debate? I don't mind a rant that makes you think.
(In 2016 some scientists in a secret bio-weapons lab perfected a new virus that could upset the world order and introduced in into China. That bio-weapons lab was in ---------.) It's the plausibility of the story that can make the conspiracy spread. If someone wants to believe they can pass the "mind virus along".
Who doesn't love a little Sci-Fi Potboiler with just enough science to help suspend disbelief.
Forgive me for being a little defensive , you and others have come across in previous posts as very condescending so my patients and manners have worn thin along with my confidence in our societies ability to use common sense . I will hopefully make time to read the links you have sent , but really don’t think they will make any difference .... Deadly virus kill thousands each year ... they all belong to roughly the same family , but regardless of how similar they are to each other or not , they kill thousands each year ..... I truly believe that last year was no different to this , and next year will be the same ... hopefully less will die if more people remember to keep up with washing their hands etc....
My point will not be made until this is all over and probably not rammed home for a couple of years until people start remembering past events and start seeing for themselves ....
@InfoCheck said:
I'm sorry to hear that you're having to cope with so much. You've probably mentioned where you're from but I'm curious where you are. You come across as thoughtful & reasoned. I'm sure you and your loved one will successfully navigate the rough seas.
Your Covid-19 Fairy tale would fit nicely on Black Mirror.
Thank you, personally I’m okay. I’m someone who’s more cautious. I still look both ways before crossing the road. I live alone and haven’t left home since the 5th. There’s plenty of food and toilet paper on hand so I’ll be here for a couple more weeks. The current routine isn’t too different from what I’ve been doing the last two years.
I do have many older family members and residents in town that I am concerned about. I have some friends with heart problems and MS. My brother in-law has asthma. My aunt had oral cancer surgery, and is supposed to go in for radiation treatments next week.
Re: Ioannidis
If someone gave me a crystal ball and showed me the future or the 'truth' and it said that this was an overblown series of interpretive bungles fueled by a few bad data anomalies and/or lack of data / excess of dogma etc I would say "Ohh, OK, that's what this is?" On the other hand if the crystal ball explained to me that this is as bad as they say / fear and holy shit snot buy all the supplies you can I would say "Ohh, OK, that's what this is?" What I mean is, I am both too dumb and too skeptical to be sufficiently convinced with a high degree of certainty either way. I just hope me and my friends and family come out on the other end, relatively unscathed (aside from fresh pin pricks on our shoulders) and movin' on.
(PS.I actually read a whole article today!)
@i warned you @Max23. Lemon is a bit creepy, but the clips say it all. I could almost understand how Republican Senators and Congressfolk could go along with his other notorieties. Syria, Stormy. Even the perfect “letter” which was a phone call. But this? I used to say Kennedy and Johnson were worse liars cause their lies truly cost lives. 60,000 Americans and million or so Vietnamese. But Trump is on his way now. A former DOJ lawyer thinks he could build a homocide case against him. I ain’t sayin nuthin, but it’s hard to eliminate the possibility of malevolence. He gets you thinking, you know?
@InfoCheck said:
FWIW, I have a similar routine to you. Even without a pandemic looming this lifestyle can be challenging. I've lived alone for the past few years myself. I can empathize with your situation. My mother has BC and takes a daily Chemo pill for maintenance & she lives 650 miles from me right now. Trying to manage things long distance is very trying.
I wish you continued strength & good fortune.