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Off-Topic discussion about Bitcoin and cryptocurrency.
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It's not about specific exchanges (and Tether isn't an exchange anyway), it's about a systemic risk to the entire crypto domain. There is a $50 billion fraud taking place right in front of our eyes, and everyone who has money invested is trying desperately to look the other way:
What am I getting out of it? For one it's partly just curiosity, I'm really into economics so Bitcoin and crypto is something I've followed for a few years, and partly I want to offer some balance so that people don't rush in without knowing the facts. Because when this house of cards comes down people who haven't cashed out are going to lose money.
I agree with you in principle. One should never invest without doing their own homework first. And individuals should always invest with the attitude that their entire investment could go south and they could lose everything. But that’s true of any investment, isn’t it? For anyone who has been completely asleep for the last 20+ years, there have been many boom-bust cycles in the stock market, housing, Internet, crypto, etc. What causes boom-bust cycles? Human behavior. Underlying investment unknowns. Crowd following. Panic selling. Fear, greed, etc.
I think if a person refuses to be responsible for their own actions, then no amount of information will sway their decision making.
Yes, I quite agree, there have indeed been plenty of boom and busts, this is not unique to crypto.
By the way (regarding Tether)… https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasgans/2021/05/13/tether-releases-breakdown-of-its-reserves/?sh=fde6c8e1109d
Looks to me like they’re just poorly managed. That does not seem particularly out of the ordinary in the crypto space at this point in time.
I suspect there’s an amount of strategery involved in Musk’s outburst, and that it is intended to push the development away from PoW. I mean, who knows what any of what he says means, I’m fairly sure not even he knows. But I’m inclined to think that it’s more than just dicking around with the market, it’s also to catalyse development. It’d make a lot more sense if he got behind Eth instead though.
The thing is, his excuse for discontinuing to accept Bitcoin is based on a debunked claim. I’m not saying he should know everything about everything, but he’s just flat out wrong.
Except it isn't a debunked claim. People have posted articles providing the evidence...Even Ethereum's creator has publicly said that PoW is environmentally unsound and unsustainable.
Vitalik Buterin might be a little biased in his opinion.
My suspicion, and it’s what I’d do if I were simulating Musk, is to leave it a short while, then come out championing some other crypto which is not PoW based. Of course everyone will flock to that, whatever that turns out to be. That’s just my guess.
What I’d aim for promoting in his position is a non-PoW crypto that has a widely established network already, the bigger the network the faster the transaction speed, the lower the overall energy. The more devs working on it, the more sign that it’ll be a widely established network, which in turn attracts investment. Beyond Ethereum there are a lot of good candidate choices (and vastly more bad choices).
Oh, also, one more thing. In terms of doing your own research and weighing who you listen to, that’s good of course, but bear this in mind.
Bitcoin mining (actual BTC) was originally intended to be performed ‘by the people’ on their CPUs, as it is a distributed ledger and democratic and all that. That worked for a long while but during that long while there was no real value or seriousness attached to BTC, so you could mine away and get bitcoins easily, it would’ve cost very little in overhead or power, and it would be worth very little also. That’s the way it was in the beginning.
As soon as it looked like there was value, worth paying attention to, in BTC, technical minds (which is almost everyone already mining, it wasn’t in the awareness of civilians back then, only nerds) realised that you could hashcrack fairly well using graphic card GPUs (the parallelism involved in hardware transforms was useful here too). This wasn’t according to the plan, and who on earth would’ve thought that a prescribed system with incentives built in would ever be gamed? Crazy eh? That’s never happened before in the history of life on Earth. But it happened, so GPUs became the name of the game, soaking up power and chugging away mining all day. As BTC value rose, similarly, the incentives steered the dev of specialised hardware such as FGPAs and ASICS purely to hashcrack the bitcoin protocol packets.
Who bought these FGPA/ASIC rigs? People already invested in BTC mining. Nobody else.
People outside the cryptocurrency sphere tend of course to know less about it, and are unaware of a lot of the details, naturally.
People inside the crypto world know all about it, so you’d think they’d be trustworthy.
But, not if it’s run by a tight knit minority of miners, of course they’ll tell you it’s not using power, of course they’ll publish information in their favour. The whole thing is now highly undemocratic and run only by the extant miners who got in early, and they’re in the position to publish information in their favour. So, be careful.
richard please stop. I already explained to ypu this is because USDT is used in derivative pairs (FUTURES) ... derivatives ARE NOT spot purchases. There is NOT direct conversion between let's say Bitcoin and USDT if you are trading BTCUSDT futures on leverage. Futures are derivatives, their price is derived from spot price. Vast majority of USDT (and other stable coins) volume is from derivatives, not from spot trading.
You need to understand how MAJOR DIFFERENCE is this, otherwise what you thinkg is completely wrong ;-)
It's stil vastly more "democratic" than PoS blockchains. PoS is basically tool for rich people to get even more rich and hold absolute control over whole network by accumulating more coins. It's so bad, that for me it's better to stay with fiat than use any PoS blockchain.
With PoW it's lot harder to get control over network, because it is rooted in real world. But PoS - it's bad. You have to be just rich, and you can absolutely easili to get significant influence or even absolute control over network. Also many people are staking on exchanges (it's simoler) which basically means few biggest exchanges have total control over many PoS networks. PoS is crap.
Manzy people are overestimating influence of miners in Bitcoin. Actuall NODES are who is in charge, not miners. And to run node is accessible literally to everybody, you can run full bitcoin node with raspbery PI computer. Nodes can force any change in network even if miners wouldn't want to. Miners literally obey to nodes, nodes are backbone of network.
Also advantage of runing node is you can run there also LIGHTNING network node, and earn fees from transactions. Of course, I't not much, because transactions on lighning network are really cheap - it's more like service for network than way to get rich.
Bitcoin is hands down most decentralized and democratic blockchain in existence. Period.
Do you have a source for this?
Ah, but if you were rich, you wouldn’t be saying it’s crap, you’d love it.
I'm the source :-)) I know how it works :-)))
90% of people are not holding stable coins for later switching it to fiat :-)) Thats epic misunderstanding. Stable coins are used as temporaty store of value for spot trading - you go from bitcoin to terher to again buy bitcoin later. If you arr trading on spot, and you want to cash in fiat, it makes absolutely no sense to go from BTC into USDT and then imto fiat - you would pay double transaction fees :-)))
Another uses case (biggest one) of stable coins, and especially USDT are derivatives.
Yes, troubles with USDT may cause serious issue to SOME exchanges - For example on Bybit you can trade futures just against USDT, they don't have own stablecoin and don't use fiat at all.
But for example Binance has own stable coin (BUSD) so for them it would be not major issue ro change durures from USDT into BUSD. I think on binance you can even trade Futures agains fiat USD.
You can see how his huge volume of USDT is made iduring corrections - those huge liquidations of futures leveraged positions are what makes this huge USDT volume.
i'm wondering for what is even needed any backing of stablecoin. Makes completely no sense for me. It's not used (by majority) thar way. There are even algorythmic stablecoins (they need a mature a bit more for mass adoption, though).
Once again. USDT is needed mostly for operarions, where you just want to have capital temprary fixed 1:1 to fiat currency, but you don't plan to cash it out.
This is why most of people who really don't understand dynamics of crypto market are getting this whole topic totally wrong.
I'm not saying its absolutely OK with Terher - i personally never hold anything in USDT for longer than few days and especially not on my hw wallet. In case of Tether crash there will be shitstorm for sure, and significant corrections on most coins. But it CAN'T kill krypto good. Simply can't. There are available replacement for USDT.
This market is still young, it needs to mature, no doubt. There will be crashes. And there will be recoveries. Volatility is great if you swim with stream, not against it :-)
Definitely :-D
I'm sad when non-rich people are shilling PoS currencies. They are not aware how really bad thing it is for them. Especially chains which are based on so called "governance" tokens - which means everything is going to happen in network, you have to pay with those tokens to literally "buy" more votes to decide about that thing. But also without governance tokens - PoS nodes are basically those who are in charge in network, and bigger node is (more coins stacked), bigger is his right to decide about any future change (or even deny to confirm some transactions). It's really almost worse than traditional fiat banking system.
This is a great thread. I something from the related research it triggers almost every time I stop by.
shitloads of top quality analysis of recent two days ... super intresting
https://pomp.substack.com/p/what-happened-to-bitcoin-when-elon
https://www.coindesk.com/whats-the-carbon-footprint-of-fiat-money
"If you really do prioritize the environment, help Bitcoin shut down the most polluting industry on Earth: central banking."
Yeah, this.
Anyone who claims that there aren't recessions under hard money regimes knows literally nothing about economic history. The entire article is drivel.
If you're going to advocate for a modern-day gold standard, at the very least do your homework and read up on the history of hard money and the gold standard. This level of debate is worthy of the kindergarten. It's like debating a QAnon supporter.
And of course that's not to mention the absurdity of comparing the global financial network, that supports every transaction, from every shop, every business, and every bank account on the planet - millions of transactions every second, to Bitcoin, which can only process a small number of transactions on the blockchain.
It's like having a car that pollutes as much as an entire city, and then claiming you can fit everyone from that city in your car and everything will be OK.
There’s no reason for personal attacks on other members here.
This is silly. One member has literally been telling Richard that he doesn’t know what he’s talking about and been amazingly condescending, and Richard’s response has been an almost saintlike patience.
And you know full well that this is not a personal attack on a member but the nutty post that was linked to. (Did you read it?!)
Your method seems to be to ignore claims of substance and instead light into some bizarre, minor transgression as a distraction. By all means, have at it, but I think most savvy readers see right through it.
https://artreview.com/jeff-koons-felix-the-cat-nft-sold-for-58-million-dollars/
@NeuM it's ok dude, easy.. i'm from CryptoTwitter, many years #hodler, went theough 2017 crash and 2020 corona crash :-))). Don't give a shit about personal attacks, saw lot worse 🤣 😂
Not only bitcoiners see reality:
Which is just fact and not peesonal attack. Sorry if it hurts but really i know some about how crypto market works, what are dynamics, how spot trading and derivatives trading works, and some about on-chain analysis. Spent 6 years learning about it. I mean REALLY learning and practisizing all
it's aspects. Not just reading some shit in some media and thinking it's all i need to know to understand it. I went really deep.
Which doesn't mean i haven't lot to learn - learning every day from giants who know many orders of magnitude more than me.
But when i see somebody is taking about something where he obviously has no clue how it really works, i say it. You have very twisted vision of what is personal attack.
I have really nothing against Richard and i respect him very much as musician. This won't change just because i totally disagree with his economy a cryptocurrency opinions...
This has been one of the best threads recently.
Anyway, I was just thinking....from my understanding of finance and business systems they rely on a certain amount of liquidity in the system in order for things to work under the current economic models. Like oil lubrication in a mechanical system.
So, from this perspective would it not make more sense that something like Dogecoin would be a more suitable currency than Bitcoin. Bitcoin being a limited supply would potentially lead to a similar situation as money being tied to the Gold standard during the time of the “Great Depression”.
Whereas you could keep printing Doge.
I know you will say this is inflationary, but isn’t Bitcoin going from 10k a coin to 50k a coin inflationary in it’s own value and then talk of it going to 100k and beyond?
I know, probably covered earlier in the thread, but just wondering out loud.
At this time it’s all speculative and what is the real value of a token? As far as I can see there is no intrinsic value in any of it. It’s not like when the tokens go up in value that the organisation behind the token is receiving that value in their treasury. If I was in one of those organisations I would be finding a way to quietly move whatever I had back out to the market while the demand is there, move it back into fiat/gold and have a nice dinner or two.
Maybe, Bitcoin has something because it isn’t trying to be anything and maybe Doge is the same. Polarities of the same wheel.
All these other ‘Alt coins’ are just nothing but noise and hot air feeding on human greed?
Doge is feeded mostly by elon fucking musk, followed by horde of low iq "investors" from TikTok. If there would be not him, there would be no Doge frenzy. Do you want to put your money into something which is driven mostly by emotionally unstable billionaire and bunch of financially totally uneducated peopke who enjoys trolling on twitter ?
more or less yes :-))) Some project may replace large part of banking sector in near future, but for now it's nit for sure.. It may grow big, it may not. There are some projects which I co sider interesting (AAVE, Dot, Link, Yfi for example), but ... well see which one will survive next Bitcoin bear market cycle and which will die :-)
Definitely most of alcoin are classic pump&dump scheme or dying zombie projects (xrp, tron, eos, ...)
Doge:
Bitcoin:
(*) nodes are computers which are holding whole blockchain data files and are distributing transactions to miners. I's cheap and easy to run bitcoin node, liketrally anybody can do it https://getumbrel.com/
Sumarized: Bitcoin is slowly going to transform into widely accepted investment asset, used by people who are looking more into long term investment than short term speculation, where Dogecoin is still what it was years ago - toy in hands of eccentric billionaire followed by trolls and tiktokers who wants to get quick rich.
Do you see difference ?
My post wasn't an attack on @dendy but on the article he linked to, but I admit the QAnon and kindergarten references were unnecessary and rude. I like @dendy and I'm glad he's part of this conversation.
I will make an effort to be more temperate in future though, because I am enjoying this debate and actually it's remarkable how civil it has remained despite profound disagreements.
I think everyone agrees on that, QE drives up the price of assets because it removes bonds from circulation, meaning that bond holders then need to find other ways to invest their money and that drives up demand for other asset classes such as stocks and property.
Making bonds available as safe assets means that there is less competition for other asset classes.