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Off-Topic discussion about Bitcoin and cryptocurrency.
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Again from Taleb, overall commodity prices going back 20 years, which tells a very different story. You could use this graph to say QE and big deficits made commodity prices go down
That's legal strategy. If you are lucky, you choose right coin. Like one guy who bought absolute worthless meaningless shitcoin "Shiba Inu" few weeks ago for 1900$. After that TikTok degens pumped this coin many orders of magnitude and he now owns coins worth 2.4 billion of dollars :-)))))) I'm not sure if there is even enough liquidity on exchanges to sell su h huge bag
Unfortunatelly i don't have this level of luck, tried it few times and always lost everything i put into it, so not trying anymore :-)))
LMAO, this guy bought every dog-themed coin going and made a $3 million profit:
If it works, it works.
@dendy thats insane. i made a nice chunk of change off shiba as well, but nothing compared to that, bought in too late. (also pulled out too soon) I like the risk of shit coins, but also know to be careful. so far ive only made money, but im making very quick moves, and not putting much in to start. Im transferring most of my gains to ETH too, so will hopefully see more gains in the future.
With the rapid rise of the DeFi space, and with big changes coming to Ethereum (in the form of Eth2), ETH is primed for huge growth over the next several years.
congrats for gains
i don't have balls for that so i'll stay probably happy poor 😭
The Beeple B.20 derivative fund isn't going well. Of course, since now we're all about dog-themed coins, NFTs are old news, to be filed under "malinvestments" (fits perfectly with Austrian Business Cycle Theory 🤣 ).
https://news.artnet.com/market/b-20-token-price-beeple-1965853
FED and keynesian worshipers :
"There is no significant increase in inflation, everything is under control and part of plan. Nothing wrong on printing shitloads of new money. "
Reality: Kicks hard.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/12/consumer-price-index-april-2021.html
Is 4.2% hyperfinflation?
Also, I'm not sure you're aware of this, but one of the actual aims of stimulus is to create inflation, and growth along with it, because it's almost impossible to have growth without inflation.
If growth outstrips inflation we still get richer overall on aggregate. Inflation of 4% with growth at 6% is still a win.
Of course it's perfectly possible that it all goes wrong and inflation outstrips growth, resulting in 1970s-style stagflation. In the 70s this was caused by a supply shock (oil went up 400% in two years), but this could happen now too if critical supply shortages are unable to meet demand.
The other thing to keep an eye on is whether this is a one-off increase or a more persistent one. For example the UK suffered a spike in inflation after Brexit (caused by rising import prices) but it was a short-lived blip, not a permanent problem.
We've all had Minipops for 20 years already, for free.
I think I wanted to be impressed by NFTs somehow - to have my mind expanded in some unforseen way, but it's not happening.
Shitcoin corner:
Be wary of the scams. They're everywhere. There are more scams out there than real deals, by a wide margin. Learn what a 'rug pull' is, without experiencing one. Understand what a market cap is, if you don't already, and why it might be interesting to you, and why liquidity is important. If liquidity is 'locked' ("we assure you, the devs can't put their fingers in the pot - we've thrown away the key") you might be reassured for a brief moment, but supposedly it's possible for con artists to use time-release locks. A contract expires and something goes offline or locks up, because the internet gets the hiccups sometimes doesn't it? and then the entire liquidity fund's gone and nobody can withdraw anything at all.
Careful now.
I've decided that if there isn't a real person standing behind a shitcoin, then it must be a con. "Here be monsters," it says on the map.
Doxxed CryptoMoonShot makes for interesting googling, if you filter results to the last 24h.
Also worth mentioning: if you've somehow managed to glide through life without becoming an ironclad cynic, then I hate to burst your bubble princess, but reddit is compromised. You have to keep your wits about you, reading through those threads. There are many fake and hacked accounts, and all of the crypto threads are full of enthusiastic planted comments and up-votes that are designed to get people jazzed up and fomo-ing at the mouth, and parting with their money.
With all that said, it's tempting, isn't it? Who doesn't love a get rich quick scheme?
The “get rich quick” scheme that has 12 years of actual advances behind it or the “I’m Mark Cuban and I’m here to sell you GIFs for millions of dollars” scheme that erupted in the last several months?
Just talking about shitcoins there. I think it’s their appeal.
Lots of people don’t have any Bitcoin and the early adopter ship has long since sailed, but if you jump on a 100x growth speedboat you might catch up. Dream fuel. It’s what con artists live off.
But if you pick a good one...
I’ll agree with you on this point: Volatility drives the greatest amount of activity, not stability. But during the time that day traders dream of finding their gold mine, trillions are now in the market and the big players like BTC and ETH have serious financial backing.
One tweet can flash-crash practically every crypto:
Bitcoin:
Ethereum:
And of course Dogecoin, the currency of the future:
Dogecoin recovered the fastest, so it's clearly more robust than Bitcoin and Ethereum🤪
where i mentioned hyperinflation ?
Say this to people with minimal or mid-range wage. For those only thing will change is that tey will pay more for their everyday expenses. In most cases with no wage increase.
Just rich will get more rich.
Yes, we are still early .. Bitcoin needs to go long road to become resistent to tweets of one confused entrepreneur.
Btw. regarding Musk, this is funny. Or maybe not that much funny, more like sad, he should clean mess in his head in first place. 2 days ago he tweets if people wants pay for Tesla with Doge (PoW coin), and before that he tweets info about Space-X flight payed with Doge, and then he tweets Bitcoin is bad because of environmental impact bla blah. And 3 weeks ago he tweets this :
It's also very much hypocritical, because Tesla cars (or electric vehicles in general) are not that much environmental light like it is said in publicly accepted fairytale. Just google something about lithium mining ;-) And at the end, Tesla cars are powered by same electricity like Bitcoin mining, so from him this argument totally makes no sense.
On other side, this makes totally sense. Tesla will for sure make lot more money with this, than with selling few cars to Bitcoin enthusiasts ...
(this was released shortly before musk tweet)
https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/exclusive-tesla-seeks-entry-into-us-renewable-fuel-credit-market-sources-2021-05-12/
One of the defining characteristics of inflation is that wages go up. Where there are bottlenecks in the economy (inflation doesn't happen evenly across the whole economy, it happens in pockets) there is likely to be a shortage of labour, particularly skilled labour, so wages go up as employers compete for staff.
This is happening right now in the US, in lumber yards for example, as they try to increase capacity to meet demand. Also anecdotally there are headline stories about employers struggling to hire workers, particularly in low-paid jobs.
Historically wages do tend to track inflation. The big disconnect, and one that is bad for workers, is that wage increases used to track productivity increases until the 1970s. Since the 1980s however most of the gains in productive capacity and economic growth have gone to capital rather than workers.
Here's a chart tracking median US household income in relation to inflation, and you can see that the worse period in terms of household income are in fact during periods of low inflation because they correlate with low growth and low earnings:
Tether released a laughable one-page document detailing their reserves today, which consisted of two pie charts, and included the admission that their reserves are made up of only 3.87% cash. The bulk of the reserves are made up of unspecified "commercial paper" with no details as to what those assets are or their risk profile.
Everyone knows these are really hyper-volatile crypto assets. Tether is backed by crypto. Issue Tether to buy crypto and then claim the Tether is backed by the same crypto, what could possibly go wrong?
And there's not even an attestation this time, because no accountant wants their name associated with this ponzi. The New York AG is going to have make do with the two pie charts 🤡
Also commercial paper is typically unsecured, which means that most of Tethers reserves are just thin air. Especially if the commercial paper originated from a sister company such as Bitfinex.
BTW anyone who holds crypto should be alarmed by Tether's release today, because even in the best-case scenario (ie no fraud) it's obvious that there is a major liquidity problem here. If people head for the exit in any kind of numbers there is not enough cash to pay them out.
If Bitcoin crashes all the exchanges will shut down, there is not enough fiat to pay people out.
In fact at some point there might not even be enough cash to pay the miners.
huge outflow from Coinbase, 10k BTC ... big whales know difference between dhirt term fud and long term growth..
this is super interesting, huge inflow right BEFORE elon tweet. Obviously insider who knew what is going to happen. SEC should investigate Elon, this looks more and more like intentional market manipulation to buy cheap.
@richardyot
i'm concerned lot more about my money in bank, considering fact they have stored physicslly just 1% of my money and in case of some black swan event, if all people would try to get their savings from bank in form of cash - then bank would simply not have those money.
Also because anytime goverment can decide to cut down my money (like it happened for example on Cyprus few years ago)
That is real threat, that's why i don't feel safe about my money in bank. They not only aren't backed by anything, they mostly doesn't exist at all 🤣 - they are just promise that banksters will (maybe) process some payments. Also, it they decide to block my access to these money, they can do it, absolutely legally and i can't so anything with that.
I don't know how it works in your country, but here in the UK all bank deposit accounts are guaranteed up to £80,000. For people who have more money there is also a state-bank (NS&i) that will guarantee deposits up to £2 million (this is backed by the central bank). If you have more than £2 million you can buy bonds, which are guaranteed for any amount.
So basically no matter how much money you have, there is always a safe haven.
This varies by country, the US has insurance of up to $250 000 via the The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and again people with more money always have the option to buy risk-free bonds.
In both the UK and US these schemes have never left depositors facing a loss, so far at least, because they are backed by the central bank.
The Cypriot situation that happened back in 2013 was partly caused by the ECB's reluctance to act as a lender of last resort. Without the backing of a central bank any deposit is potentially risky.
But anyway if you really think crypto is safer than regular banks, good luck! 😬
Do you understand how fractional banking works ? They really don't have your money, i mean physically in tresor.
In case all people would run on bank to get out their money as cash, bank will collapse. They hold just few percent (in EU it's 1%) as physical cash. Most of your money physically doesn't exist.
In case something like that happens, banks are closed to prevent people access their money. This happened many times already.
What happened at at Cyprus - i mean particály the thing where government taxed by 100% tax all money above 100k, so gov. basically took away people's money.
Totally irelevant what was treshold, i'm talking about principle - money in bank are not your money and anybody (bank, government) can in any moment decide to prevent you access those money or take them completely away from you. Fact.
In general (no related to what i wrote above) fiat currency only value lies in brute force of goverment, which is using violent law enforcement to force people use that shitcoins as money. If you are ok with such system, you'r choice. I'm not ok with that.
This Bank of England paper explains how money and banking work:
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-bulletin/2014/money-creation-in-the-modern-economy.pdf
Money is created by banks when they make new loans. There is no fractional reserve requirement for this BTW, banks are not limited by reserves but by capital requirements. Reserves are used to settle interbank payments (to balance payments and deposits between banks).
And yes bank runs do happen, we had one in the UK in 2007 with a bank called Northern Rock. The bank was nationalised and no depositors lost a single penny - because the state stepped in to protect depositors from the failing bank.
And that in fact perfectly illustrates the value of fiat money: it allows the central bank to create liquidity in times of crisis, something which is not possible on a gold standard. In the 1929 crash hundreds of banks went under because there was no effective lender of last resort.
ok.
LOL. You sure are working your narrative, Richard. Do you know how many exchanges there are in the world? And you seem quite resistant to understand that an exchange is not necessary for people to conduct transactions using cryptos.
What are you getting out of this anyway? If you’re skeptical because you want to invest but are frightened by risk, then don’t get involved. It’s really as simple as that.