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Off-Topic discussion about Bitcoin and cryptocurrency.
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Today really is a bloodbath, even as a sceptic who always thought the bubble would pop I'm surprised at this.
I really hope people have managed to cash in their gains and/or mitigated their losses.
Yeah, I cashed in at a loss when things clarified. Made a quick few back with the bounce about half an hour ago, then got out again quickly. Stressful day! The pros must be in their element.
I think we give Elon too much credit for causing the crash. I’m sorry but he doesn’t have that much power over the entire cryptoverse.
My opinion of course 😉
As people get set to go back to work, go on vacation, get on with life…i am sure they have decided it’s time to CA$H in on their investments and get out while it’s good. Last year was super hard on all of us as a species and certain life priorities came in to focus for a lot of us.
As with all dips it’s good for the long term investor to get more.
Crypto is a curiosity of mine and i truly believe in some of the projects so the dip is welcomed so i can get some more Coin for those projects i believe me in.
Will i invest all my savings into crypto? No way. Will i take a chance on a few? Yes of course.
Crypto and the BlockChain is just getting started in my opinion now that it is in the public’s eye and has regulators chomping at the bit on how to capitalize on it.
It’s going to be a fun next 5-10 years. Hopefully Dendy will have us all on his private island for a great party when he finally cashes in 👊🏼™️💕
Wow. Crazy how at 6am my time, the big Coins all dipped majorly at the same time. Looks like they bouncing back. Wish i was up then to have gobbled up some more. Hahah.
Yes, I saw BTC and ETH both bottomed out around 6AM PST. BTC below $30,000 at that time.
This is amazing. Liquidarions (for those do not understand those are traders who are tradinf with futures leverage - in that case you use small collateral to borrow money from exchange to trade bigger volume. Disadvantage is if you don't manage properly and price goes too quickly in different direction, you loose all your collateral)
This is definitelly biggest dump simce "corona march" .. approximately same size in % (around 40%) but lot bigger when measured in volume (because of significstnly bigger price)
Lol would be glad but until Bitcoin will not rise to something like 5-10 million USD personal island is unlikely :-)))) I don't have that much, i was too much cautious first years when imtouched crypto, spend more time by studying than actually investing so my portfolio isn't that big ... I'm here more for tech than for some huge profits :-)
My plan is to accumulate enough during next 5 years to be able just lend my bitcoins and live from interest. Don't need millions and actually don't want, lot of money === lot of troubles (and lot of taxes, and i don't want to feed those parasites who are in charge of my country too much lol)
How right you are. Since I only jumped into crypto late last year after studying it (off and on) for over 10+ years, fortunately I’m still above water right now. Anyone who jumped in on all the momentum trading over the last month just got completely soaked. Same thing happens in the stock market all the time. Long term investing is the only sensible approach for an individual. Day traders usually lose.
reading all this is madly fascinating but i still feel my measley student money is better invested into 2nd hand guitars, pedals and synths
Here’s a good general guideline for investing: If you can’t afford to lose it, don’t invest it.
Laughing hard. This was me today :-)))
Pure gold ! Most important rule of investing.
👍
shopping spree on markets at full throttle.. recent night almost 20k BTC leaved exchanges in 10 minutes. Whales are sucking liquidity like mad.
What is also great, derivatives market is sleeping, nobody has balls for longing or shorting. Most of price action is driven by spot purchases which is super healty.
From halving to first big +40% correction.
Like. Fucking. Clockwork.
We will make it to Citadel.
@dendy there was also another kind of "halving" yesterday 😄
True retracements always take a few days to play out. Nothing unusual there. Sure it's a large swing, but high volatility is a trademark of crypto.
Prices also tend to "bounce" after a large fall. A "double-bottom" (price hitting a low, bouncing up, then hitting a low and bouncing again) is often a sign of a reversal after a fall. Might not be in this case, but I'm guessing things are showing signs of bottoming out. It looks to me like there's still downward momentum that could last for up to a week though, so I wouldn't expect recovery just yet.
You seem to have outstanding understanding of economics, but very little of stock market dynamics. I have no understanding of economics and a only a little about markets. But this is pretty basic stuff.
@wim my view is (and has been all along) that this is a bubble that will pop. However it's always impossible to know exactly when markets are going to move, no-one can predict the future.
Of course I could be wrong, I'm human and more than willing to accept that predictions are impossible to get 100% right, or even 50% right.
Having said that, these are my predictions for the current crypto run, we can all judge in a few months if I was close or not:
It's likely that the price will end up above where it was at the start of the bull run, unless something really big happens like Tether unwinding or China banning crypto mining completely.
I don't think this means the end of crypto though, it's likely to be around for decades, especially as there is a reasonably large and committed userbase. There will almost certainly be another bull run or two in the coming years.
Having said that, after 12 years in existence I'm not seeing a use-case for crypto or the blockchain outside of financial speculation, so the game-changing promise of disruption is not something I personally believe in. To put things in perspective, the iPhone has been around almost as long as Bitcoin (2007 vs 2009) and no-one is doubting the importance of the iPhone.
I'm not invested in this financially, so I have no skin in the game, I'm just armchair quarterbacking here. If I'm wrong about any of this I'm happy to eat humble pie.
I'm tending more and more to agree with you about crypto**, but believe blockchain technology is promising. There are emerging uses for distributed ledgers that are beginning to come into focus. I'm not alone in this. Big players (financial institutions like Visa and JP Morgan Chase for instance) are clearly beginning to see it too.
I'll admit the technology does suck at this point. But so did room-sized computers that had orders of magnitude less computing power than my phone not many years ago. So did cell phones in the beginning. So did modems. So does self-driving technology today. If there are real-world problems something address, people figure out how to improve it.
I can understand why you don't see the real world uses for blockchain. I come from a different background (30+ years managing computing and data processing), and I see it differently. To me blockchain technology does seem like something that will remain disruptive and will improve and be put to good use over time.
(** though that doesn't bother me much because I'm happy to see it as simply a speculative investment vehicle for my purposes as long as it's there.
)
@wim yes of course, I could be wrong. My predictions have about as much weight as playing Fantasy Football.
Also I think that it's perfectly legitimate to approach crypto trading like a game of poker. Some people will win.
So one thing that I think should be interesting for people who approach Bitcoin as an investment is the mining costs, and how they affect the likelihood that you can make a profit.
Bitcoin has only one input: people have to buy Bitcoin for money to enter into the Bitcoin economy.
However there are multiple outputs: people cashing out, transaction fees, and mining costs.
On average 900 Bitcoin are mined every day. Miners have substantial energy costs so it's pretty reasonable to assume that miners will cash most of their coins out to pay for the electricity, and also to make a profit.
If the price of a Bitcoin is $30,000, and miners cash out 75% of their coins, there is $20 million leaving the ecosystem every single day. That's $7 billion dollars every year leaving the Bitcoin pool.
And of course if the price rises to $60,000 you are then looking at twice that amount: $14.5 billion is leaving the ecosystem every year, and has to be replenished with new buyers buying more Bitcoin.
There is no yield, the only source of profit is price, and you can only realise profits by selling to someone else. It's like investing in a stock that pays no dividends, for a company that has no revenues, but actually loses billions of dollars every year. Does that sound like a good investment?
Bitcoin is a negative-sum game: to make money you have to make that money from someone else (which is zero-sum), but there are also mining costs to account for and they must come from the same pool of cash.
One question for the crypto experts: did Satoshi envisage commercial Bitcoin mining like we have now, with specialised computers that are only good for mining Bitcoin? Or was it intended to be done by ordinary people using their own computers?
The reason I ask is because the "money for the people" ethos seems to fit better with the second option, but I don't know enough about the origin story to figure out if the current situation was foreseen right at the start.
Depends on the timeframe and the investing strategy.
High volatility is ripe ground for short-term swing trades if you know what you're doing. I'm not talking day-trading, but in and out over a period of a few days to a few months. Managed very carefully, this kind of trading can have a fairly high probability of success.
I don't recommend short selling but you can also make money on losing companies that way. I've tried it a few times when I couldn't find enough opportunities I was comfortable with. Made more than I lost that way I think, but decided it wasn't for me when a couple of trades didn't go my way.
nope, you can lend your bitcoin and earn interests.. there is already multimole posibilities how to do it.. for example blockfi.com, or lyou can work as liquidity provider for decentralised exchanges and profit on yields. This option is a bit complicated for people outside crypto but it's just matter of time when some super user-friendly application will be available for this. Most simple solution how to get earn momey without need to sell your stack is BlockFi ans Celsius
Also some banks are working on custodian services for lending your crypto or borrowing fiat with cryptomused as collateraľ.
There are already multiple ways how to profit on your bitcoin without need to sell it.
better if you read whitepaper to understand what was his primary goal
https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
As i mentioned, everybody who wants participate on bitcoin decentralisation can run fullnode. Nodes are lot more important for decentralisation than mining. Mininers are just creating new blocks and passing them back to network, but nodes are validators of each block, nodes are also deciding about every network update, and there is Lignthing network layer running on nodes which is 1000000x more efficient for transactions than for example VISA network, optimalised for near to zero fees microtransactions.
Nodes are literally "in charge", they are totally decentralized management of network, brain of network - miners are basically just manual workers.
You can run node on raspberry PI with less consumption than your home TV :-)
I think i explained this at least 2x or 3x in this and other thread bit you obviously sisn't read it :-)
There might be derivatives of Bitcoin, but none of this flows back directly into Bitcoin itself. The price is still only supported by people buying Bitcoin.
I'm not going to be too much academmic and theoretic or argue what is and what is not derivstive.
I'm just saying there are already practical ways how you can benefit from your bitcoin without need of selling it ever, and those ways are growing and improvimg rapidly. It was my reaction on your note you have to sell bitcoin to profit. No, you don't.
Sure, you can use your Bitcoin as collateral in another trade, but that’s just adding another layer of speculation, it’s not the same as yield.
To make an analogy: a bar of gold doesn’t generate yield, but you can use it as collateral.
But to directly make a profit from owning a bar of gold you need to sell it for a higher price than you bought it for.
from what i know he didn't take too much care about philosophical side of things, he was more concentrated on technical side, on solving main issues (trustless transactions, solving byzantian generals problem). So for him it was most important to have network robust enough, with hash power big enough (in relation to coin price), to make network secure. Becuse this is main point of PoS - as price grows, i crease hash power and preserver decentralisation, to maintain network secure.
Many people think you need increase hash power to process more transaction which is absolutely not true. Number of processed transactions has absolutely nothing to do wih hashrate size. Hashrate is in direct relation with price, not with number of transactions.
So, then I guess when all Bitcoin are done being mined, it does become a kind of "money of the people" given that virtually anyone can run a node and that there shouldn't be any further influence of big miners? Does the energy consumption argument also go away then (for Bitcoin only, obviously)?
This is an honest question, not meant to be leading in any way. I'm still trying to get my head around this whole concept.
No, mining will be still needed. Minimg is about puting together transactions and creating new block. Miners are rewarded not just by new mined coins but also by transaction fees. There are multiple theories how network run will be financed when (around year 2150) will be mined last botcoin. Not entirely clear for now, maybe transaction fees on main net will be big enoguh to pay miners , there are other proposed solutions - we have enough time to solve this problem :-))
Influence of big miners is overestimated. Nodes with no minig can still force them to accept ANY network change or update if needed (althout there is alway preffered method of give them free choice to accept any network change which they usually do - like now wh upcoming Taproot update which is at the moment already accepted by, i think, 80% of miners and this number is growing)
You are sort of right, but also wrong.
Bitcoin (BTC) can be acquired by mining it using computers designed expressly for that purpose, Bitcoin can be acquired by trading another crypto for it, Bitcoin can be acquired by someone having another person transfer it to their wallet and Bitcoin can be acquired by paying some other form of fiat currency for it (and the exchange of Bitcoin for cash does NOT have to happen with the involvement of a crypto exchange).
In one final example, Bitcoin can be acquired by hacking/social engineering/theft is “possible” but falls outside the spectrum of acceptable voluntary transactions.