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Off-Topic discussion about Bitcoin and cryptocurrency.
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Interesting. Thanks.
I can think of many interesting and cool ways ongoing transaction maintenance could be financed. I'm not going to voice any of them though. For now, that's yet another interesting facet to this whole thing. I don't understand the negativity and fear of the whole thing. Anything with that many people interested in it and able to influence the future of it seems promising indeed, provided government doesn't get too involved.
This feels a lot like all the other disruptive progressive changes in history to me. There are spectacular losers and winners but in the end there's overall progress for all. I think it's our largely our increasingly risk-adverse, equal distribution, societal outlook that accounts for some of the knee-jerk reactions to all this. More and more people don't want there to be any losers. I get that compassion but also think there's no stopping progress and that progress is always messy. I'm happy to be along for the ride.
Dendy (or others more educated on this than I am) I know you nor anyone else is giving financial advice, but I am curious if you think this is due another dip soon. I am kicking myself I didn't buy when the btc price was around 33k. I'm trying to decide now whether to just get at the current price of almost 42k or wait til there is another drop. I would be buying a significant, for me, amount, so the price matters
ohhhh shittttttt
BTC hit a low of just under $30,000 yesterday. For me, the day has been a nightmare because my crypto exchange froze my account for an entirely idiotic reason and I’ve missed out on this entire market drop. Very disappointing.
If you agree that BTC could go to $100,000 by the end of the year (which is what some are still saying today) or if you think it might do relatively nothing now that China has banned banks and exchanges from trading and holding crypto… then you have some decisions to mull over.
As for myself, I remain a long and plan on holding for a minimum of 5-10 years. Buying on the dips, especially big, BIG dips is still a valid strategy.
My plan is exactly to hold for ten years min if all goes well. I know buying in now is still likely to be a decent price, still, but I also know if there is another run on its value in the next few days or months I will wish I had waited lol. Haven't I heard speculation that it could drop into the low 20s this year?
I’ve not heard that from anyone. Even with China out of the arena (for now), there’s already a strong upward move today. And frankly, why wouldn’t there be? Everything was on discount.
Also, if you don’t want to worry about the state of the market and only have your eye on long term results, consider investing using dollar cost averaging. This means you contribute the same amount every week, every two weeks or every month (whatever time period you feel comfortable with) regardless of market conditions. This has proven to be a reasonable long term strategy, but if you are the type of person who wants to get very familiar with markets and act on big movements, it may not be for you.
Example: https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/dollar-cost-averaging
Yes I remember Dendy saying he likes that way too. Hard to say, I'll have to see how interested I get in it and how much time I want to spend studying it.
@Gavinski
if you REALLY want to hold let's say 10 years, then i would say it is absolutely irrelevant if you buy at 25,35 or 45.
But before you step into this game ask yourself if your psychology is strong enough. Are you REALLY ready to hold it for +10 years, and see temporary 40-45% drawbacks like recent one, or even 60-70% drawbacks lasting or example for year ? Because - believe me - long term holding is not that easy like it looks. It's easy to hold when you see numbers go up, but it's really hard to still hold when trend reverses temporary and you have no idea how long it will be the case.
You will see all kinds of FUD news in mainstream media. Stuff like Tether FUD, China/India/USA/whatever undemocratic totalitarian regime you can imagine is baning or at least highly taxing crypto gains, energy consumption FUD, crime financing fund,.. blah blah blah. Same shit for years returning again and again. Mostly during Bitcoin dips lol :-D You have to be ignore or laugh on those nonsenses.
I'm holding since early 2017, i saw go my initial investment 10x up, then 85% down.. didn't sell shit. Then for few years up/down.. etc .. During Corona dump march/2020 i was even in negative numbers for a while. Didn't sell a shit. Actually, i'm not going to sell EVER, even if it goes to zero :-)) As i mentioned, i have to plan to profit different way than selling and i have plan to hold at least next 5 maybe 10 years... And buy every single fucking dip
It is lot easier if you deeply understand topic, that's why i think being Bitcoiner means nonstop self-education. For holding for years without any deeper understanding, you need to be literally superman in terms of psychology. I'm not that guy, so i'm helping myself to keep it with knowledge
Also VERY important is to put there just money you can afford loose. This is ABSOLUTELY crucial. No matter how deep your faith is. There are some people who put there literally their whole net wealth, but that's not me, i'm not that strong. I'm always trying to see also possible risks.
Use DCA, put into it every single month 5% or 10% of your income and forget it. Keep doing it for years, no matter of price. Also very effective way is, buy some every time price goes down at least 30% after some phase of growth - but again just with money you can afford to loose and be prepare it goes down another 30% before it starts go up again. What i do in such case ? I buy again :-D Because hell fuck, i believe in this shit
That's it. Think about it deeply before you start investing into crypto. Definitely hands away from trading , you will most likely loose everything. Trading is VERY VERY hard, you need years of learning or starting to be profitable. Just plain holding of Bitcoin for years is more profitable than 90% of traders :-)
Regarding long term future of Bitcoin, i see just two possible alternatives. Lets's say 10 years from now:
1/ zero price. you can't 100% rule our some black swan even which causes people totally lost faith in crypto, and it completely dies. endgame. If somebody tells you this is not possible, do not believe anything he is saying :-)
2/ continuous growth with occasional drops (which may be smaller and smaller in future as total market capitalisation will grow). Price at least 10x, maybe 15-20x from today. Current market capitalisation of whole crypto is around 1.7 trillion, Bitcoin itself 750 billion. Market cap of gold is 10 trillion. I don't see any reason, i growth for last 12 years is preserved, having 10 years from now Bitcoin market capitalisation above Gold. Which makes 500k absolutely realistic target 10 years from now.
I don't see realistic scenario where Bitcoin price is around same value like now 10 years from now. Personally think this is dramatically more unlikely than 1/ or 2/
Oh and hads away from every new crypto which pops up from nowhere during bitcoin price surges, and promises being "new bitcoin", and promises you 100000x gains in months. Those are poping in every cycle, and it ALWAYS ends badly for most people. Few lucky get super rich, most of them loose everything (various dogecoins, shiba coins, safemoons, cumrockets and similiar shit).
Keep focused on signal, ignore noise.
And last advice: Don't believe to anybody, including me. Do your own research and and act accordingly ;-)
Well said, @dendy. If one cannot accept risk, then don’t get involved. There will be endless chatter about efforts to make cryptos illegal, that confiscation is possible, that people who hold cryptos must be drug dealers, terrorists, or whatever nonsense is peddled by detractors to undermine and shake confidence in a financial system which challenges the status quo.
Ok, i'm going to add my personal prediction too .. Let's see who will win :-)
@dendy one thing that MIGHT drastically affect buy-sell activity of crypto holders in the US is Joe Biden’s proposal to radically increase taxes on wealthy people. There are a lot of crypto holders who have become extremely wealthy due to getting in on all of this early and I’m personally aware of some who are talking about permanently leaving the US if the tax burden is too great. At minimum, large sales of crypto would be scaled back or non-existent for the remainder of the current administration’s term.
Most of retail never reaches treshold to be considered as "wealthy" and really wealthy people will always found way how to avoid too much taxation
)
Those are more just populistic screams into darkness, often used by socialists like Biden. I'm not much afraid this can affect crypto in long term. There will be always smart countries which see the opportunity of low taxation and benevolent approach to crypto, and they will profit from crypto lot more than taxation hell countries.
Additionaly, what this will cause will be just that crypto rich people (or rich people in generall) will leave US and move to some other crypto more friendly country ;-) Increasing taxes is always bad for country economy in long term, but socialistic populists never learn this.
OK I've had a read, and from what I can see his original vision is quite different to where we have ended up. Most of the paper is about transactions and using Bitcoin as a payment system, I saw no mention of it being a store of value or a speculative asset which is what it has now become.
One thing I don't think was really considered is the scalability issue, in the very first paragraph of the paper Satoshi wrote this in relation to conventional payment systems:
The cost of mediation increases transaction costs, limiting the minimum practical transaction size and cutting off the possibility for small casual transactions
And as we now know Bitcoin is not suited to small casual transactions so I think this is a pretty clear indication that he didn't really foresee the direction Bitcoin would end up taking. Bitcoin can only process around 7 transactions per second globally, so it's clearly not suitable for small transactions (which number in the millions per second globally).
I'm also guessing he didn't foresee the rise of ASIC miners and commercial mining operations, he probably thought it would all happen on distributed computers belonging to regular people (which is how it was in the early days). Yes I know that anyone can store the blockchain on their home machine, but not anyone can be a miner anymore.
That's called evolution. Bitcoin is open source, lot of devs are still working on it's improvement (some of them cooperateed even with Satoshi, like Adam Back, other ale new). That's beauty of decentralization - many people are working together, without need of central authority taking care about them. They are pushing initinial vision and solving new issues which were not possible to predict 12 years ago. This year is for example coming very big Bitcoin update called "Taproot", which amongst other improvements improves also privacy and adds posibility of more complex smart contracts.
Bitcoin is constantly adopting on changed conditions - which is one of reasons why i believe it's here to stay.
Richard are you really reading all i wrote ? I wrote multiple times scalability is solved by Lightning network which can process millions of small transactions per second with near to zero fees. Lightning network is rapidly growing. Don't try to understand it, it's very complicate process but you don't need to understand it
It just exists, and to use it for end-users is almost same easy like using directly main net. I think it's in process of adoption also on exchanges, if i good remember Kraken is already supporting it.
Think about bitcoin main net like interbank SWIFT clearing system, and lighning is equivalent to VISA, PayPal or other second layer payment systems in traditional finance. Just it's way much more efficient and scallable.
Yes I know about the Lightning network (and I do read your posts), but the point I was making was simply that the original paper does not reflect where we have ended up. Satoshi's original vision was clearly for Bitcoin itself to be used for transactions, which we now know is not practical.
It actually doesn't really matter, and I don't object to the idea of the concept evolving over time as it interfaces with reality, it's merely an observation. I was curious about the original intentions vs how things have played out.
Ok, i found it. So, Satoshi was fucking genius.
He actually predicted lighning network and smart contracts back then when Vitalik Butering was probably still visiting kindergargarden:)) and prepared Bitcoin core for that :-)
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=195.msg1611#msg1611
Btw. thank you for this discussion, didn't know this yet, so i learned something new again.
meanwhile in traditional finance/government system:
https://www.cityam.com/tax-scammers-and-carbon-credits-decade/
Don't kick yourself too hard @Gavinski. It was only that price for half an hour, the exchanges were jammed up and when it was in freefall, nobody knew where it would stop. It's easy to look at charts after the fact, but in the moment it's all uncertainty and stress. If you want to ride the crypto train, I'd get familiar with this particular anxiety.
Possibly a bit more droppage now. It's hard to say if it'll gather pace.
I finally just went and bought my first chunk of crypto today. Wish me luck guys!
It’s a ride and a huge learning experience, so enjoy it! 👍
Yup, who knows how the f**k it will all turn out, but let's see, fingers crossed
Best of luck dude
I'm hoping that my bad luck with my ipad today will signal good luck with my crypto investments 🤞😭
Like being shat on by a pigeon
Haha. Always look on the bright side of life!
Happened to me 3 times in one year. Different birds, different places. Number 3 was a real peach.
Should really link the source: https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/
I don't offer any financial advice myself. Not convinced it's truly bottomed-out just yet, but I am hoping for growth in the coming months.
I'm personally hoping it bottoms out some more and I will buy a bit more when it does
You never know. I thought I knew when I bought more BTC at $45,000 after it had seen a recent high of $60,000… then it dipped below $30,000. LOL. I repeat… you never know.