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As a past dev engineer I agree on what say this guy. He say 2030 to be replaced that 7 years I will say it will be in 5 years so 2028 for senior dev. In a teem of 6 dev lead by a senior architect software engineer, 4 junior dev and a guy dedicated GUI / manual writers will be left only 1 , the more skilled junior dev able to drive specs and have a global architecture view.
Here the new team in 2028 / 2030 : For the beta testing an AI will be doing that , an other AI writing the manual and a dedicated GUI for dealing with GUI and coding and only one employee the junior software engineer.
Yeah, I don’t think it will replace live, or recorded music, it’ll just be another tool used where necessary.
I’ve been using Photoshop professionally for 30 years. It hasn’t replaced photography, or illustration, but works alongside them. It’s probably created more jobs, than displaced them.
What we don’t know yet is the effect AI will have on other industries. Will it replace jobs, enhance them, or sit alongside allowing unskilled operators to produce trillions of lines of crap?
Or will it go haywire and trigger WW3 before we even get a chance to think about it?
Yeah that submarine identification thing is a real worry, bad actors and all that…
True, you're right to point that out! We must have different friends becaue I know a bunch of people who love his stuff. Sapiens in particular was mind blowing!
ANY western government really 😉
Certain areas are being hit.
https://restofworld.org/2023/ai-image-china-video-game-layoffs/
An art director i know at a local north american company said there will 'be a culling' at their company due to this.
Have a look at the culling of jobs in newspaper companies.
No more sending out "a reporter and a photographer" to cover a story. The reporter takes the photos on their phone.
No need for conductors for most movie scores either.
And for writers , in Hollywood they go on stricke , not only for that, but no future for them
One of my students has already cut his art department from 5 to 2 and midjourney
Yeah, not good, and the output won’t be as good either (I’ll argue that point to the death - even bad art by humans is better than the best currently artificially generated pap, in my book, however flash it may be).
I'm interested to hear why you would say that given the current quality of AI like MidJourney.
Yah the pure algorithmically weighted generations without a human intention/vision tend to stand out like soulless sore thumbs to me. Capable artists who leverage it as reference and source material will dominate the artists who don't use it and the cigar chompers who figure they don't need artists involved at all.
In the same way I could load up a complex, auto-generated, MIDI guitar solo triggering a multi-layered sample, which would still not be fit to lick clean Hendrix’s boots, even on one of his off days, the shiniest, Athena poster-like bit of AI ‘art’ while initially impressive, on longer viewing simply leaves me cold.
Without the human element, without the magic, it’s simply ‘data’.
Right, but if we are talking about commercial art though, (made up of 99+% of non-Hendrix workers) then a lot of them will be outclassed by purely generated stuff, at least as far as public appetites will go for a while.
To my experience 99,999 % of people , managers, directors doesn’t perceive that. Like people hearing music don’t make analysis of the music for them it is pleasant , relaxing , fun or not fun that all. Even educated people are outside of your scope. There a small Elite of music educated people and professional (not all ) that can think like you.
I am not pessimistic nor optimistic, first step is to find how AI is better to help you in human tasks.
I love the human factor, live jam … in music but famous musicians and famous singers (pop, rock, DJ) do a lot of rubbish concert and are not able to respect their audience ( Diva style that doesn’t bring any humanity, drunk musicians or under drugs not able to play). AI at least don’t drink and takes drugs and is not late , don’t do in 20 minutes a 1h30 concert when people pay a lot their tickets (thanks to Live Nation) .
It's an interesting point of of view and reminds me of the time when an artist sold a piece of work to a collector. The collector was happy about the piece until he discovered that the artist had used a duck and had its flippers dipped in paint and allowed it to waddle across the canvass.
So up to the point where the collector was oblivious to this they were quite happy and viewed the piece as "Art".
This is where things get blurred because you could argue that the artists in this instance had an intention to create something and used a duck to as a tool to realise the intention so is it still Art?
An artist can grab a coffee table and throw a bunch of stuff on it and have it exhibited as Art so clearly there isn't an actual mechanical skill component to being an artist only an intention. If the person that writes the words that instructs the AI tool to generate a piece of AI art, and the results mirrors the persons intention then how is that any differnt?
I find the words 'art' and 'artist' have almost zero value in most discussions now. Even pre-AI generators I gave up on it. Seen too many things called 'art' that just don't resemble each other in any significant way. The possible range of use just seems too broad now to be able to make any salient point. That is why I just stick to 'commercial art'. More quantifiable / contained. The big red square or bananas taped to a wall arguments just aren't compatible when talking about layoffs and the job market etc.
Good point if the AI results Miror what the artist want and the feeling it got at that moment it is human art 🖼️, if an AI have the ability to connect via physical captors to my brain and express what I want to express in my music in my style it is music , my music. (In the lab it’s the evolution of AI and with neuronal computing its coming.
I am very pessimistic on the catastrophic impact that AI will have on the job market. People that laugh that off have really no idea what's coming down the pipe.
Folks say that the people displaced by AI will be able to do AI related jobs but an average office worker is never going to become a AI scientists.
It's fair to say that that most office jobs can/will be replace by AI within the next 5-10 years. Same with lawyers, accountants, etc.. any job where a human is doing pattern matching and applying a bit of reason.
Imagine living in a world where you have billions of highly advanced AI models connected to each other who are training themselves on the fly on all of our data so that if one figures out how to do a single thing slightly better then it did before that information is transmitted to all AI models. We are talking about a vast hyper intelligence that will be able to out reason and out think any human being. They could design super efficient human robots to do any human manual task better than any human.
How will money work when you have a huge percentage of the population jobs replaced by AI / machines.
What will be our purpose?
My biggest curiosity now is just what the timeframe on all of this looks like.
Well, I don't know...white collar jobs are under threat by AI yes...but I doubt we'll see an AI plumber or electrician any time soon...
Definitely, but that’s commercial art, and company owners will want to squeeze as much profit out of their resources as possible. Always have, always will.
But I’ve found, via flicking through billions of images on the Instagram, that I can spot an AI fake every, single, time. They lack the magic that human creativity always adds to a piece of work.
So of course companies will use this stuff, and of course most of the masses will be fooled. But canny companies will use AI as a tool, keep their best artists and encourage them to use it sparingly, and will always be one step in front of the data shaggers.
Trend setters, rather than automated regurgitators.
No, it’s bollocks. But while there are still gullible idiots around willing to part with their cash for this stuff, or canny investors knowing they can sell it on to a gullible idiot for a profit, ‘artists’ will keep spewing it out.
Most of the art and music I like is done by skint nutters like me, and pushes some kind of inspirational lever in my heart. The vibe from the creator themselves is sometimes as important as the work I’m looking at or listening to. But I realise my preference is not a typical reflection of the general public’s cultural consumption.
Isn't that impossible to know? If you are fooled, you dont know it.
So by that analogy, hitting the random button in a MIDI sequencer makes me a composer? As good as someone that has studied composition and knows how to do it without a random button?
It doesn’t, does it.
We’ll have to adapt or die.
When I started as a designer, we used paste-up and Letraset. Photo retouching was done via paint and an airbrush. Those skills were wiped out overnight when DTP and Photoshop arrived.
So I learned that stuff.
Then the web turned up, print design jobs started to go, and so I learned web stuff - which ironically paid me 5 times more than print design.
Keep moving, keep learning, keep your eye on the ball. Something usually turns up. Either that or we’ll all be digging up turnips for our robotic overlords.
LOL
Not so far. If something catches my eye I’ll make my mind up before checking the tags or description. Usually I’ll conclude it’s AI, but HOPE it’s not, as I’ll have then found an interesting artist to follow, rather than some dickwad who’s gone from selfies and photos of his dinner, to greasing out 300 fantasy artworks each day.
Come on Gus, you can spot this stuff, you’re in the business.
I find the AI art that I’ve seen and heard to be pretty hokey and lacking in sophistication. It exhibits the taste of a 12 year old for the most part. I guess most people don’t move past that. Color me unimpressed.