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OT: Vent About Global Pandemic Management *HERE*

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Comments

  • edited September 2020

    @audiblevideo said:
    I’m not even going to mince my words

    Trump knew how deadly the virus was
    Trump lied when he said it wasn’t bad
    Trump actively, deliberately fought every effort to mitigate the virus

    Trump knowingly spread the virus at his “events”
    Chanting of opening the country back up
    Pushing fake remedies
    Contradicting every expert

    Trump knew
    Every action he took after that was with the knowledge of how bad it really was
    Every action was deliberate
    Not to “stop panic”, but to spread the virus

    Trump is a killer
    Trump is a mass murderer

    He should be declared unfit by the Congress as he has failed continuously for six months to do his duty to the country and to the oath of office to which he swore

    He should be removed, arrested, tried, and jailed for life

    Trump is a traitor

    I understand your anger. It would be more effective perhaps or more convincing to those who aren't so certain, if there could be some suggestion as the why of it all, as regards his actions etc....

  • @JohnnyGoodyear said:

    @audiblevideo said:
    I’m not even going to mince my words

    Trump knew how deadly the virus was
    Trump lied when he said it wasn’t bad
    Trump actively, deliberately fought every effort to mitigate the virus

    Trump knowingly spread the virus at his “events”
    Chanting of opening the country back up
    Pushing fake remedies
    Contradicting every expert

    Trump knew
    Every action he took after that was with the knowledge of how bad it really was
    Every action was deliberate
    Not to “stop panic”, but to spread the virus

    Trump is a killer
    Trump is a mass murderer

    He should be declared unfit by the Congress as he has failed continuously for six months to do his duty to the country and to the oath of office to which he swore

    He should be removed, arrested, tried, and jailed for life

    Trump is a traitor

    I understand your anger. It would be more effective perhaps or more convincing to those who aren't so certain, if there could be some suggestion as the why of it all, as regards his actions etc....

    Don't think I haven't been. I just needed to be explicit and here seemed to be as good a place as all the others open to me.

  • @JohnnyGoodyear said:
    I understand your anger. It would be more effective perhaps or more convincing to those who aren't so certain, if there could be some suggestion as the why of it all, as regards his actions etc....


    Can you say pee-pee tape, boys and girls?

    Sure, sure.

    I knew you could!

  • Putin was in the KGB when Ronnie Ray-Gun said tear down the wall.

    He saw the dismantling of the Soviet Union, and his goal ever since is to restore the union and demolish the United States as revenge.

    So far, he's doing a pretty impressive job at both — thanks to Dumbass Donnie!

    Star pupil...

  • They got lies so big
    They don't make a noise
    They tell 'em so well
    Like a secret disease
    That makes you go numb

    With a big ol' lie
    And a flag and a pie
    And a mom and a bible
    Most folks are just liable
    To buy any line
    Any place, any time

    When the lie's so big
    As in Donald Trump’s case,
    (That sinister face
    Behind all the Jesus hurrah)

    Could result in the end
    To a worrisome trend
    In which every American
    Not "born again"
    Could be punished in cruel and unusual ways
    By this treacherous cretin
    Who tells everyone
    That he's Jesus' best friend

    When the lie's so big
    And the fog gets so thick
    And the facts disappear
    The Republican Trick
    Can be played out again
    People, please tell me when
    We'll be rid of these men!

    Just who do they really
    Suppose that they are?
    And how did they manage to travel as far
    As they seem to have come?
    Were we really that dumb?

    People, wake up
    Figure it out
    Right Wing fanatics
    Around and about
    The Court House, The State House,
    The Congress, The White House

    Criminal saints
    With a "Heavenly Mission" --
    A nation enraptured
    By pure superstition

    When the lie's so big
    And the fog gets so thick
    And the facts disappear
    The Republican Trick
    Can be played out again
    People, please tell me when
    We'll be rid of these men!

  • ♥️
    Frank gets full credits for that.
    I changed just two words from this feature song from the 1988 tour.

  • @JohnnyGoodyear said:

    @audiblevideo said:
    I’m not even going to mince my words

    Trump knew how deadly the virus was
    Trump lied when he said it wasn’t bad
    Trump actively, deliberately fought every effort to mitigate the virus

    Trump knowingly spread the virus at his “events”
    Chanting of opening the country back up
    Pushing fake remedies
    Contradicting every expert

    Trump knew
    Every action he took after that was with the knowledge of how bad it really was
    Every action was deliberate
    Not to “stop panic”, but to spread the virus

    Trump is a killer
    Trump is a mass murderer

    He should be declared unfit by the Congress as he has failed continuously for six months to do his duty to the country and to the oath of office to which he swore

    He should be removed, arrested, tried, and jailed for life

    Trump is a traitor

    I understand your anger. It would be more effective perhaps or more convincing to those who aren't so certain, if there could be some suggestion as the why of it all, as regards his actions etc....

    Malignant narcissism and fear of incarceration

  • I haven't let loose with a hot blast of the anal trumpet in a while.

    Trump is unlike any other President before and probably unlike any to follow.

    His "victory" required so many small details to fall into place that the odds of his re-election are
    beyond calculation without some additional villainy. It's the potential for out right fraud that concerns me
    because the people of the US are NOT that stupid to allow another 4 years of this.

    Destroying confidence in the integrity of the vote is a no win proposition. If the riot after the result is
    announced and destroy it will just bring the disease to the surface to be dealt with.

    There's a final phase with any Clue where a trusted insider wakes up and exposes the Dear Leader as
    a charlatan and not the God his followers think he is. I think that's the next phase as he gets desperate.
    Someone close will try to talk him down from Bombing Iran or some stupid move intended to secure his
    position of power.

    It's going to be history in the making just as the last 4 years have been: Dark, violent, utterly clueless history. With Good People on One Side.

  • @WillieNegus ... you believe in destiny? You? What’s this “meant to be” ideology?
    @McD, are you sure? Seems over 40%+ of us Murderkins want four (if not eight) more years. That’s the stupidest, fearfulist and rascistist two fifths of us... quite a few, indeed and doesn’t include the sexual perverts... the left has to have something.

    Been watching Watchmen on HBO. Way different than the graphic novel, very whitey and very on target.

  • 57% of the forrests in the are on Federal Land and still no creatinn of the "US Rake Force".

    Many folks in the UK just woke up. Thinking it makes sense the Donald would create a "Rake Force" to roam the forrests, managing their "exploding logs" that are actually just dead timber with little "pop" left.

    Sorry... just exercise my right to make light of any serious discussion for my own entertainment. "Rock the Joke".

  • @WillieNegus ... I didn’t think you did, but...

    “What is meant to be will be. Nothing ever happened that wasn’t supposed to. No exceptions.”

    I think it might be better to say that suppositions are irrelevant; things happen as they will.

    “Moses supposes his toeses are roses, but Moses supposes erroneously”.

  • @WillieNegus ... this will splain it to you. Strange, it feels incredibly white these days....

  • @LinearLineman said:
    @WillieNegus ... this will splain it to you. Strange, it feels incredibly white these days....

    You and I are incredibly white my friend. If it wasn't for jazz and handful of novels we'd
    have little involvement with other suppressed cultures. I think we can throw in some asian religious thinking as documented by Alan Watts and some other modern new age charlatans.

    We rode in on a cloud of privilege and will float away to eternity without paying for the gifts.

    In my confinement I'd rather pokes bears than sit silently and pray for peace. There will
    be no peace without sacrifice.

  • I don’t know @McD, @WillieNegus says this is just how it’s supposed to be. There’s never been global peace and my guess is there never will be, no matter what the sacrifice. We’re just not made for that. However, if I were born a Jew a hundred years ago it woulda been a lot different.... not to mention five hundred years ago. It’s not just the color of your hide, it’s when and where, too.

  • I did a quick calculation to estimate the consequences of "Herd mentality" and it totals up to
    5+ Million deaths in the US and would make containment in other nations very difficult since we would allow open travel in the interest of economic benefit.

    My calculation extrapolates the current stats:
    196,000 deaths
    6,630,000 infection
    2.95% death rate

    Herd Immunity kick in with 60% infection
    328 Million in the US @ 60% requires 196M infected
    196M infected at %3 = 5.9M

    It's probably safe to assume there would continue to be key learning's to drive down the
    death rate but only if the health care system is NOT over loaded. So, if it took 6 months to hit
    196K dead then it would take 15 years to get to 60% infected. (Check me on that). A lot can change over 15 years so "herd mentality" might be irrelevant by then.

    So, if we believed in herd immunity as the solution we should start injecting to give the virus
    a faster transmission rate and get this shit over with. You check into a "health camp" and either come out immune or in a box. This could be the "final solution" for managing the pandemic.

    Hopefully, there are alternative solutions. I don't trust this government to run a decent
    hospitality camp and staff it with ethical Surgeons.

    Throwing a vaccine into this calculation can help improve the stats but we still have a long
    road to considering Covid-19 to not be a public health issue. If it takes 5 years to really be resolved then I hope we have learned some important lessons about governance and the value of applied science.

  • @McD said:
    I did a quick calculation to estimate the consequences of "Herd mentality" and it totals up to
    5+ Million deaths in the US and would make containment in other nations very difficult since we would allow open travel in the interest of economic benefit.

    My calculation extrapolates the current stats:
    196,000 deaths
    6,630,000 infection
    2.95% death rate

    Herd Immunity kick in with 60% infection
    328 Million in the US @ 60% requires 196M infected
    196M infected at %3 = 5.9M

    It's probably safe to assume there would continue to be key learning's to drive down the
    death rate but only if the health care system is NOT over loaded. So, if it took 6 months to hit
    196K dead then it would take 15 years to get to 60% infected. (Check me on that). A lot can change over 15 years so "herd mentality" might be irrelevant by then.

    So, if we believed in herd immunity as the solution we should start injecting to give the virus
    a faster transmission rate and get this shit over with. You check into a "health camp" and either come out immune or in a box. This could be the "final solution" for managing the pandemic.

    Hopefully, there are alternative solutions. I don't trust this government to run a decent
    hospitality camp and staff it with ethical Surgeons.

    Throwing a vaccine into this calculation can help improve the stats but we still have a long
    road to considering Covid-19 to not be a public health issue. If it takes 5 years to really be resolved then I hope we have learned some important lessons about governance and the value of applied science.

    That 2.95% death rate is a somewhat spurious figure. That is NOT the death rate of infected people. That number of infections is "known infections". We know for sure that the actual number of infections is quite a bit higher. And because of the erratic testing we have done local infection rates are off by varying amounts.

    It seems like most epidemiologists think that with current treatment protocols the IFR (infection fatality rate) is somewhere on the order of 0.5% or possibly lower (if generalized to the whole population). That is still a whole lot of people (too many) dying if you try to get to herd immunity but it is a lot fewer than what you calculated.

    Also worth noting is that people becoming infected and dying DON'T just stop when the number of people infected hit the 'herd immunity number' -- a lot depends as to what the rate of infection is when you get to the 'herd immunity number'. For instance, if the rate of infection is very high when you hit herd immunity, a lot of people will still be spreading the disease and the number of people infected will exceed the predicted number.

    If the rate of infection is very low as you approach herd immunity, you don't get that same overshoot.

  • edited September 2020

    About six million dead? How many millions maimed for life? This is is a preposterous solution. Proposed by an idiot who can’t even say the term correctly.

  • @espiegel123 said:
    That 2.95% death rate is a somewhat spurious figure.

    6.6M infected and 196K dead. Can you fix these stats to indicate 0.5%. Is the death total
    a damped exponential and I need to find a current death rate?

    I'll extrapolate 0.5% to predict a death total.

    196M infected for 60% immunity.
    0.5% would yield 980K dead.
    Much better. I suspect the number is somewhere in between 5 and 1 million.

    It still takes 15 years without "health hotels" to speed up transmission and managed care
    to keep that 0.5% rate.

    Do you think there will be vaccines that exceed 0.5% death rates too? I hope so.
    How should we consider mutations and this model?

  • edited September 2020
    The user and all related content has been deleted.
  • edited September 2020
    The user and all related content has been deleted.
  • @Max23 said:
    U can’t calculate like this
    Infected vs dead — u are predicting the future here ;)

    That's the point. Use the current data to forecast the future.

    (You are assuming here that all currently infected(that you know of) won’t die, this is totally wrong ;) )

    Yes. I make assumptions. I'm not a professional. But I want a clue when this herd "mentality" would get us to just being "Great Again"... careless essentially. San Souci.

    Look at closed cases for the correct numbers;)
    (Numbers are from today) https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Do I need to do it again with yet another IFR? Can someone help. I have so many threads to
    ruin.

  • edited September 2020
    The user and all related content has been deleted.
  • @Max23 said:
    Heard immunity,
    Gee for that you need like 70—80% to have had it to be effective.
    That means millions of dead people ;)
    Not a course of action you want to take ;)

    I guess you missed our Dear Leader's comments on how Covid-19 will just "go away" in time
    due to "herd mentality". It's a common thread on YouTube as the natural way to deal with these events. They have no Plan B other than pushing a Vaccine in October. A vaccine that would take over 2 years to roll out, best case.

    "Moo..."

  • edited September 2020
    The user and all related content has been deleted.
  • COVID-19 is a virus.

    The common cold is a virus.

    Yup, we'll cure COVID-19 before "A VERY SPECIAL DAY!"

    Hopefully that very special day is the same day Dumbass Donnie gets thrown to the gutter — where his happy place is...

  • The user and all related content has been deleted.
  • Oh, George "W" Bush started that all by himself, didn't you hear???

    "It's hard work, real hard!"

  • @Max23 said:
    There is no vaccine and there won’t be any in short time. Maybe never.

    I think this virus and any that follow will create the pressure to develop RNA delivery
    drugs that can combat viruses. That's my hope for the long term.

    But until then, I think we need to using the same strategy we use for a large scale forrest fire.
    Containment. The only effective containment is slowing the rate of transmission.

    We could dramatically slow transmissions if we only knew when we had it. Mass production
    of low cost antigen test strips. That would help if we could self-test and get an answer in minutes. PCR Lab Tests are too expensive and take too long to report results. Antigen testing is not as accurate but a positive result can alert someone NOT to spread the virus while they are contagious: slow the rate of transmission.

    Ever a vaccine manufactured starting tomorrow can take 2 years to cover enough people to get back to normal.

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