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Published by Cambridge University in August: "Abstract: In testimony before U.S. Congress on March 11, 2020, members of the House Oversight and Reform Committee were informed that estimated mortality for the novel coronavirus was ten-times higher than for seasonal influenza. Additional evidence, however, suggests the validity of this estimation could benefit from vetting for biases and miscalculations. The main objective of this article is to critically appraise the coronavirus mortality estimation presented to Congress. Informational texts from the World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are compared with coronavirus mortality calculations in Congressional testimony. Results of this critical appraisal reveal information bias and selection bias in coronavirus mortality overestimation, most likely caused by misclassifying an influenza infection fatality rate as a case fatality rate. Public health lessons learned for future infectious disease pandemics include: safeguarding against research biases that may underestimate or overestimate an associated risk of disease and mortality; reassessing the ethics of fear-based public health campaigns; and providing full public disclosure of adverse effects from severe mitigation measures to contain viral transmission."
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/disaster-medicine-and-public-health-preparedness/article/public-health-lessons-learned-from-biases-in-coronavirus-mortality-overestimation/7ACD87D8FD2237285EB667BB28DCC6E9
Any vaccine would or should be given to those most at risk of serious effects and death due to Covid-19, this would drastically cut the mortality rate, if the vaccine is relatively safe. Very much in the same way the Flu vaccine is administered.
Lot of ignorant redbaiting propaganda in this thread. Thought this was a thread about corona-chan, not Russia.
The “Russian bounties” story is BS, there’s no evidence. Even IF the Russians are offering those incentives to militants, it would be because the US has killed a couple hundred Russians in Syria since we’ve been there (illegally against international law, I’ll add). Media never tells you about that, do they, because it’s Hillary Clinton & Barack Obama that got us into the Syria clusterfuck. Media also doesn’t tell you that Russia is now taking over Libya, thanks to the chaos & power vacuum created again by Clinton & Obama. When Russia attacked Georgia, the media’s new darling G.W. Bush did diddly-squat even though Georgia was third largest contributor of troops to his stupid Iraq war. When Russia attacked Ukraine over Crimea, Obama admin did nothing. Clinton went from billion dollar backdoor deals with Rus oligarchs & trying to derail sanctions on Russia, to her current muh Russian bots redbaiting.
If Trump is controlled by Putin, why is he permitting US attacks on Russians in Syria. Why is he reallocating US troops in Germany over to NATO countries bordering Russia (Poland & the Baltic states). Yall think that’s something Russia wants? German chancellor Angela Merkel signs a pipeline deal with Russia that would allow Putin to drive a wedge between West and East Europe any time he wants, and it’s TRUMP that’s a Putin puppet? Before, if Putin wanted to play “who runs Bartertown” with Eastern Europe, he had to piss off West Europe as well. If Merkel gets her way with the Nord Stream 2 project, Putin will be able to selectively pressure the East European countries he wants back in the Russian sphere. Only Denmark was holding this Gazprom project up but they gave in last year, so it’s only a matter of time now before Russia is driving a wedge right through Europe. It’s a new Molotov-Ribbentrop pact & the only one trying to stop it now is Orangemanbad. If Putin had pee-pee videos he would’ve dropped them by now.
At least you made past the first sentence before, the drivel.
The flu vaccine is available for everyone here in the UK, but if the initial production produces only a limited quantity, at first, those with greatest medical need should be prioritised, then when supply is more available for everyone else.
I heard a guesstimate of 2 years to roll out the vaccine for everyone so prioritizing the early treatments for those at risk saves the most lives. The 2 year timer will probably start in 2021.
Trumps no-responsibty, not-a-plan policy, COVID response which was exactly NOTHING.
Herd Immunity is not a plan. It is a death sentence for 1.4 million people or likely more. Not to mention those who WILL be debilitated or harbor pre-existing conditions aka permanent side-effects.
I'm NOT an infectious disease specialist. I am just doing BASIC maths.
Assuming the INFECTION RATE (R0) of COVID is similar to influenza (1.4) to achieve even partial "herd immunity" 30-75% of the population has to have some immunity through exposure or vaccine.
The population of the United States is approximately 328 million people (328,000,000 people)
So far 2% of our population 6 million (6,000,000) Americans have been exposed to COVID19
Of those 6 million 187,000 have died horrible painful lonely deaths.
Let's take the minimum number of people to "achieve" herd immunity 30%
30% of our population is 98,400,000
98.4 million people that need to have been exposed to COVID19 and SURVIVED (since there is NO VACCINE)
Let's leave out what it means to achieve 30% of the population SUCCESSFULLY surviving COVID.
Let's leave out whether our health care system could keep up and give the best possible outcomes.
Let's leave out what deficiencies we have in unf*cked data regarding who dies in what age group & who survives.
Let's leave out what long term health effects exposure to COVID19 gives those who survive.
Let us just ASSUME that 30% of the population magically gets COVID19 and some portion of them die. Let's also ASSUME that the percentage of deaths is between 1 and 2 percent. Splitting the difference at 1.5%
ONE point FIVE percent (1.5%) of 98,400,000 (the 30%) is
1,476,000
One million four hundred seventy six thousand DEAD
Those are the lowest numbers with the most basic of maths assuming the best conditions and not counting the collateral damage to our health system, economy, society, and mental/emotional health.
1,476,000 dead Americans
This is Trumps plan. No plan.
Fuck that orange lazyAF lying bastard to hell and back.
Yes the number of deaths is shocking, but without a vaccine or remedies for the serious consequences of Covid, the Social and Economic effects will also be as shocking, not just for the USA, but the whole world.
Yes. They are using the same flawed herd mentality math to calculate the final death toll.
We have 45 days to change regimes in the US. Meanwhile, the current administration is claiming they will provide a vaccine before the election and roll it out to everyone over 6 months.
You can fool some of the people some of the time... ya-da, ya-da.
I voting for the socialist, bomb-throwing, atheist who has yet to provide evidence of these
bonafides.
Regarding the economic aspects... If herd immunity is good for business, I'm buy shares in
companies in the undertaking and hospitals. Get in on the ground floor... opps too late.
I never predict these trends. The smart money beats me every time. I locked down my investments in cash accounts. Shit gonna being flying everywhere in three, two...
Money smart... people... not so much.
I'm so glad "Corporations are people" and protected by the First Amendment with rights
to buy politicians. They will protect the economy from the ignorant masses awaited to be
fleeced.
I know... old news... I'm sure it's changed since 2015.
And the hits just keep coming!
Recent trends indicate the death rates are dropping as they develop effective solutions to
sustain more through the final stages to recover. The secret is to insure adequate resources
to provide these services to meet the demand. Supply and demand: basic economics.
Tradeoffs are key to effective management. If you can't measure it, how can you ever hope to manage it?
"President Trump, how come the US has more deaths?"
"We do more testing."
There are efforts to reduce testing and also to insure inaccurate counting of the deaths.
Help is on the way. We will ignore our way out of this and get back to record profits in the market. Protect my 401K... my inheritance... my assets. I'll be in on the slopes soon getting back to "normal".
You can’t use a 4% death rate of the whole population to make projections. It does not take into account all the people that are asymptomatic and have not been tested.
Take Sweden for example, where they are now getting back to normal. The total percentage of the population that died from Covid is 0.06%
The US is a bit higher than this % so far but it won’t be millions of deaths.
It's not that bad... once the smoke blows over to europe we'll be slowly getting out more.
The main benefit will be deferring those student loans for a more active lifestyle outside
the classroom. It's like a "gap year" for the kids. "Fall into the Gap."
@Max23 I wasn’t saying 30% was herd immunity. I was assuming with the lowest numbers and best scenarios to show, and to make a point, that it’s not a plan, except a plan to kill 1.4 million people at the minimum of minimums.
In some countries that’s sociopathic mass murder, apparently here it’s politics
If he gets another four years we’re ALL fucked, and not just from COVID.
Mine have already matriculated and have day jobs and one has a baby.
No. But I miss live music.
It's a trip not to be missed IMHO.
You think that but the noise makes you throw them outdoors.
I wish.
Audible... helps to get in that extra nap.
Yuck... all that pruning and fertilizing. I recommend bird watching with a nice Chianti
or headphones, a guitar and an iPhone in the ruins of the old garden.
I developed adult ADD during this period (apparently, it is a real thing) and could not concentrate and focus on anything. My doctor prescribed Adderall last month, and it does seem to be working. I am completing projects, and am not experiencing any of the wanted or unwanted recreational effects of amphetamines.
Exactly... totally different results. Drink up:
Sorry... I cropped out the "Lede"
Viva La Espana... where's that tilde?