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It seems like epidemiologists are converging on the infection fatality rate being 5 to 10 times the flu’s IFR (0.5% to around 1%)...with an outlier possibility that there is one strain that has a fatality rate similar to the flu and one that is significantly higher...with both strains being more transmissible than the flu.
They are constantly trying to remind us that flu death attribution is based on excess death calculation and not positive test for the flu. So comparing the currently reported COVID19 deaths to average flu deaths is skewed. Using the current COVID death attribution would reduces its fatality rate by of four or so.
So, yeah it is true that even if the IFR were the same as the flu, it is bad news. And it seems like COVID19 with current treatment protocols is has much higher fatality rate than the flu.
I don’t think there are actually very many people left that think it is just the flu. The media has given a lot of coverage to the fairly small number of people that don’t take it seriously.
Yep, excess death calculation. Thats actually the stat I was trying to look up when I found the graphic I posted above showing NY stats.
I think I heard that flu deaths so far in 2020 are under 7,000 (actual deaths from positive tests, obviously before any post-seasonal calculations). So that would be a more accurate comparison to the 50,000 covid19 deaths. This makes is clear that covid is nowhere close to similar to flu.
I am curious to see excess death comparisons of mid-January to beginning of March. It now seems likely that there were starting to be deaths in the U.S. and Europe before people realized...some will be flu/pneumonia deaths but there will also be heart attacks and strokes. For those not following medical developments, there are sometimes clotting issues and organ damage that result in death.
In the U.S., the flu deaths through mid-January this year (our flu season starts in mid-October I think), were looking to be a bit higher than usual but not as bad as a couple of years ago. That year was about 60k deaths and resulted hospitals not having adequate capacity.
The flu season may have masked doctors realizing something else was going on here starting mid-January which seems to be when community spread was already happening on the West Coast of the U.S.
Yep, flu and pneumonia deaths have spiked this year. Here’s the data:
Here’s the source. https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html
@espiegel123 I agree this data seems to support the idea that covid was causing significant death in the US long before we knew it.
LOL, look at the timestamp on this tweet:
That chart is showing percentage wise so far it’s not massively higher than the bad P&I in 2017-2018
I would say when an average flu season causes less than 8% of all deaths at its peak and has now jumped to over 14%... yes, to me that is massively high. Especially so, when considering a bad flu season in 17/18 peaked at causing 11% of weekly deaths.
I’m no expert, but I would not be surprised if the experts find out that COVID is actually responsible for a large portion of the peak in pneumonia deaths this year.
But the difference between 11 & 14 is enough to collapse the economy and send debt and unemployment skyrocketing?
If Covid was to be compared to flu the 1918 pandemic would be fairly comparable. No vaccine available then and various quarantine measures used in different locations.
Worth noting that the fatality statistics in some countries for COVID may be off by an order of magnitude or more. Ecuador has reported only 532 deaths from the virus but their excess deaths from March 1 to April 15 is more than 7,500 people:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/world/americas/ecuador-deaths-coronavirus.html
This is likely true in a a number or places. I will be curious to see the figures from states like Georgia and Florida. Probably not off by a factor of 10, but it would not be surprising if they were off by a factor of 2 or 3.
@Mark B Right, of course a 3% increase in flu deaths is not reason to plunge our country into debt and unemployment... but there are so many other factors going on. That 3% difference is only looking at deaths currently attributed to flu/pneumonia. Add to that the 50,000 verified deaths due to covid, so far.
A few months ago the US had to play the guessing game of “how bad would it be?” If they chose to do no lockdown... The fact that 50,000 have died in less than 2 months (going only by extremely low confirmed positive tested deaths) should be more than enough evidence to prove that limited social contact country-wide was the only humane option and that any return to normal social interaction needs to be carefully planned.
Apart from the fact that country’s (and states in the US) that have not had enforced lockdowns have not fared any worse.
@ knewspeak said: stuff
I know you're angry - I sure as hell am.
I know you don't agree with the person you named - I sure as hell don't, either.
However, calling him out like that out of the blue seems a like a cheap shot. It's been pages at least, since he participated in this thread, hasn't it? Anyway, that's I'll say on that.
Some country's that took early strong actions have done pretty well, but we didn't take any of those actions. In South Korea, for example, they started aggressive testing and quarantining and wearing masks in public places before the epidemic had spread far. There is increasing evidence that the mask-wearing significantly reduces transmission rate.
New Zealand seems on track -- via a very tight lockdown -- to have stopped the epidemic.
California has had a fraction of the deaths of places that locked down later in the epidemic cycle. We can see from the number of deaths and rate of increases that the lockdown has had an impact.
We also may not be seeing accurate death figures from some states. I am very interested to see excess death stats for Florida, for instance, which already tried (and got caught) trying to hide some COVID deaths from its death reporting.
Only in America is somebody actually allowed to sell bleach for people to drink.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/24/revealed-leader-group-peddling-bleach-cure-lobbied-trump-coronavirus
As we know Sweden decided to go against “sensible” scientific advice and instead has not forced a lockdown.
So far it seems that... it's way too early to tell. Plus a model is an overall predicted curve - reality doesn't typically follow a smooth curve.
Maybe they made the right choice for their country. Maybe they didn't. It's one hell of a gamble, either way, and might endanger other countries in either case.
Trump is like an orange toilet. He's totally void inside, so you fill him with sh%t, and he'll flush it out on national TV.
Not quite sure what you are getting at. But Sweden is not doing great. Per capita, Sweden is currently at 213 deaths per million inhabitants. Neighboring Denmark which locked down early is at 70 deaths per million.
Sweden has gone from 23 COVID-attributed deaths to 2023 over the past month and the number of daily deaths appears to still be increasing though it is hard to say exactly since there is clearly something odd about how they release figures.
During that same period, Denmark (which did lock down) went from 23 deaths to a total of 394.
So, Sweden maybe not a great example for lockdowns don't have an effect.
And just a reminder, whenever you think about the number of deaths reported for COVID-19 and think about comparing them to annual flu deaths: the attributions at this point use totally different methodology.
COVID deaths are currently being reported based on testing and deaths being attributed to the COVID at time of death. Flu deaths are not attributed this way. Only about 1/4 of flu deaths are attributed to the flu at the time. Statistics are used to ascertain how many of the excess deaths during the flu season should be attributed to the flu.
You can't do this till after the fact. The evidence so far is that excess deaths are going to turn out (and it will vary from place to place) to range from anywhere from 1.5 times what has been reported to 10 times as many has been reported. Preliminary work has shown that in some Italian towns the figure is as low as 2x but in one town it appears to be considerably higher.
Sweden has less deaths per capita than the UK and other European country’s in lockdown. They are also expecting to have herd immunity in a few weeks.
Their neighbours may have fewer deaths at the moment but the point of the lockdown was to reduce the impact to the health service. Which was never really stretched anyway due to much less cases than predicted. So their neighbours will either have to stay locked down until a vaccine is available (no guarantee) or slowly let the virus spread and it will have the same fatality rate anyway.
This chart, which is a favorite of Russian bots on Twitter, seems to have been devised by a newly religious blogger from "the Country Formerly Known as Great Britain, now known as The Quagmire."
I hope he's right. But it also seems he is discounting exponential spread, and the comments on his site quickly dive into George Soros and Bill Gates conspiracies. In fairness, exponential spread also took Diamond and Silk by surprise.
I think you are confounding a number of issues.
Sweden doing better than the UK is irrelevant to your thesis that lockdowns don't make a difference. The comparison of neighboring Denmark and Sweden where the epidemics started at the same time and have had radically different outcomes speaks to your earlier claim.
Doctors in Sweden even wrote an open letter to the Swedish government urging the to take stronger action. The epidemic is getting worse in Sweden while it is mostly over in Denmark.
As to whether their neighbors will need to stay locked down is a dubious proposition. As long as they continue their active testing and tracing (which they have been doing since the lockdown), they can take the "hammer and dance" approach by taking localized action to prevent clusters of infection from spreading.
Btw, Sweden (216 deaths per million) is doing slightly better than the UK but not a lot better (UK is at 287 deaths per million). Denmark is doing better by a huge margin (by a factor of 3).
Also, comparing Sweden to the UK based on today's deaths per million is misleading because on March 23, the U.K was already at several hundred deaths. In a few weeks, compare Sweden's death rate to today's UK per-capita death stats and you will have a better comparison.
@Mark B : ugh. Just took a look at the site that graphic came from. That graphic is something created by a blogger using dubious methods. The graph given of daily reported deaths does not match what is reported on Worldometers. I think you've been had.
That chart is daily deaths per 100,000 so looks ok on a quick check.
Taking you point about these countries in lockdown keeping it under control. As soon as they go back to normal and people start mixing with each other that is going to be very difficult.
The article is about how somebody in America is already selling bleach as a healthcare product with instructions to add a few drops to drinks to cure you.