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Off-Topic discussion about Bitcoin and cryptocurrency.
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Comments
What scares me about Bitcoin is how many people are of the opinion that they will hold it long term through thick and thin, no matter what. I have never heard a professional investor say that about anything. In fact, professional mantra is the exact opposite ... know why you are buying, set the parameters for your exit and stick to them.
I also don’t see the value argument:
As an intermediate payment mechanism (the emerging market proposition) sitting between real currency and consumers, great ... but how much would you pay for a $100 PayPal balance?
As a safe asset when hyperinflation inevitably hits fiat currency. Hyperinflation is a mysterious bird, and evidence of the past 15 years is that the Fed has successfully broken the worlds pool of dollars into two pools: the spending pool (where money is spent on goods and services) and the idle pool (where excess money gets invested into repo and other short term instruments that require, desperately, a hedge fund or private equity shop or REIT to borrow tons of money to take huge leveraged positions). The trick they’ve played is that pretty much every dollar they’ve created has gone into the idle pool and we’ve seen (1) massive hyperinflation of leveragable financial assets and resulting consolidation and wealth disparity and (2) virtually no leakage into the spending pool, except for luxury goods (see Forbes CLEWI index). So massive printing by the Fed absolutely does NOT make hyperinflation of consumer prices (the sort that makes politicians bust bubbles) inevitable. I’d say it’s very unlikely
as a tool for money laundering, its value is limited to small scale fraud. The bigger it gets the more the government will crack down. Arguably they already have and the games up on this one
blockchain technology ... don’t see why I’d buy Bitcoin to make money from that
but look how much it went up ... but why buy it today? Again real investors ask every day ... would I buy it again today, if not get out
Tesla accepts them today, it’s only a matter of time before it’s a real currency? Right now 150+ million Americans give up their free time to work exclusively for US Dollars. How many people in the US do that for Bitcoin? How many of Tesla’s employees, suppliers and creditors accept payment in Bitcoin? What % of the US population has enough Bitcoin to conduct transactions in? Bitcoin has virtually no shot at becoming an unbacked currency to replace the USD as legal tender. And if it ever gets a whiff of success the US government will slap a 25% transaction tax on Bitcoin transactions, announced only after they’ve successfully got all the data on accounts via AML requirements. Black market? Sure but if you want access to the US economy in full, not happening
I’m sure I’m missing something. But to me Bitcoin is a pure abstracted trading vehicle. It’s not an investment at all. And anyone sitting on massive gains and not selling is shocking. Get out, at least in part, and enjoy the fruits of the real economy!!!
Sorry to sound so US centric. Of course the same could be said for access to any developed market and its currency
It'll never last! They said, 10 years ago.,
Again, history is not the question, the future is
Every day is a reinvestment decision. If you didn’t sell, you've essentially repurchased.
Based on the value propositions above, I’d argue that Bitcoin has been a failure on almost all fronts and doesn’t warrant reinvestment.
What happened to its trading price over the last ten years is history ... and the all star investor graveyard is riddled with those who built future prediction models using historical data. Look at just before the dot com crash, just before the Lehman bankruptcy, etc. These are not “random” events - they are pretty clear blind spots in hindsight, generally driven by a failure to account for how the institutional money market system REALLY works
Could Bitcoin keep going up? Of course!! But in my view it’s a catalyst away from people really wishing they would’ve sold. Putting aside the more fundamental regulatory issues, if a decent swath of holders start to feel like I’ve laid out above, the race for the exits will begin, the institutional investor base will evaporate under regulatory pressure, and with no actual value proposition, it’s just pets.com again
Once more, I’m not predicting anything ... I can’t ... the question is whether someone who bought in a few years ago should stay 100% in, Madoff style, out of a fear of missing out on future price increases (that they probably wouldn’t sell into either!). I’d say there is no evidence that it’s a good risk to take. At least diversify into companies that actually produce things, buy land, buy something, anything to hedge the massive Bitcoin exposure you are taking now.
Oh and please, if you’re going to lend your Bitcoin for interest, ask yourself if you’ve really done sufficient diligence on your credit exposure. For a supposed “real asset class” there is a lot of prayer finding it’s way into decision making
lf you think I'm going to sit here and listen to you badmouth pets.com, buster, you've got another thing coming.
Seriously, though, everything you say makes perfect sense. But I believe that cryptocurrency acolytes feel something different is afoot, something actually magical or transformative.
😂 agreed
It's just a matter of time before the governments start putting pressure on crypto currencies. Different regulations will be introduced, similar to existing regulations in the banking industry. ID checks and personal info collection for self-hosted wallet owners, reporting of transactions over a certain amount, etc. They will demand every activity to be traceable to fight tax evasion and criminal activities
That's when the panic will start and the value will plummet...
I can't argue with anything you've said except above where you say it's not an investment at all. Perhaps long-term yes, but over shorter terms it's an investment just like any other. Swing traders ride the highs and lows over a period ranging from a few days to usually no more than a few months. In that sense it's an "investment" just like any others.
I bought a very small amount of BTC and ETH a few months ago and have enjoyed a 50% return. That beats the hell out of the rest of my portfolio. Do I expect that to last indefinitely? Absolutely not. I plan to see if I can get enough of a feel for how the ups and downs behave to treat swing-trade in these two.
Anyway, my point was anything that puts capital to work making (or losing) money is an investment. One small disagreement out of a post full of great information. Thanks for making it.
( BTW, Robinhood is a simple way to dabble in crypto without need to actually hold any. You can buy and sell it in any dollar increment just like any other stock. I have no idea whether it's a good or safe vehicle for larger investments, but its quick and easy for the kind of chump change I'm dealing with.)
You articulated this very well.
I have noted that in much discussion of BitCoin that people that feel strongly that BitCoin is fundamentally different (in a good way) from any past currency or investment vehicle -- that there will be an insistence that 10 years of history is sufficient to prove that BitCoin will continue into the future as it has performed in recent history -- and at the same time treat the much longer time scale of fiat currency as being insufficient to establish legitimacy.
I have no idea what will happen with BitCoin. I won't be surprised if the bubble collapses or if it continues as a critical device for decades -- it is subject to a lot of complex influences -- not the least of which is whether there are sufficiently large number of people that feel that it is a legitimate vehicle that will continue to fund it. [Putting aside all the well-established concerns about the energy demands which have resulted in it being a less and less distributed system over time -- concentration which will only increase if it continues to rise in value. Strangely at odds with the notion that it is a system of the people fundamentally different from other currencies and monetary instruments.]
Absolutely agree with this ... I should’ve been clearer ... when I said not an investment I did mean that it’s a trading asset. I can understand why people would want trade momentum, sentiment and animal spirits, etc. I don’t understand why someone would want to remain locked in “no matter what” like it’s a long term investment, which I do hear often, and feel bad for those people because, as I alluded, that sounds like a victim of fraud a la Bernie “don’t pull your money or you’ll miss out” madoff.
Thanks
“I believe fiat currency ‘acolytes’ feel something different is afoot, something actually magical or transformative.”
See how that works?
Some critics here may never change their minds and jump into crypto. But in my opinion, that’s not what’s going on. What I’m seeing is critics (both from the fair and unfair camps) slowly talking themselves into it. I had to come around to it slowly also and I had nothing but criticism for the past 12 years. But after I actually put my own money into some cryptos I had skin in the game and I was forced to look seriously at things and challenge my assumptions.
But I want to be clear about things. I’m not advising ANYONE to risk their money. I won’t shed a single tear or “lose out” if someone decides to never participate. I can only communicate what is my experience.
Yeh, I'm with you on that. If there's enough reason to see it as a long term trading asset, I'm just not seeing it yet. Dendy has come the closest to articulating details about why he feels that way, but it doesn't sit right with me.
Damn would I like to be smart enough to have baged some of those outrageous gains I missed out on though.
... or maybe "smart" is actually the crippling factor here. Knowledge is probably the last thing that drove the people who cashed in big time. I think I need to go rethink my life.
I found this too hilarious not to share
Good illustration about NFTs as they exist now, but totally off about the Rainforest part. I guaran-damn-tee you that no-one is chopping down trees or even pumping oil for crypto mining. Excess hydro, geothermal, and waste natural gas are the only electricity that are practical for use in crypto mining. That part is funny only because of its ignorance. The rest is spot on though.
Fwiw, it is not true re the only energy being used is excess energy that would otherwise go off into the ether. And the higher the BTC price, the less that it is true. This talking point about mining using only waste energy is fiction based on crypto-enthusiasts saying so.
But does it work? I'm not sure it does. Rhetorically, "fiat currency acolytes" makes sense only to crypto acolytes. No one who just uses money calls money "fiat currency."
But I do agree that money is a shared fiction, if that's the paradox you're trying to express.
You're doing it again.
Proof?
I've done more research than you probably think I have. What you're saying doesn't make logical sense (to me) and I've never seen anything written that would convince me otherwise. To use high-priced energy such as wood, coal, or petroleum just makes no logical sense. Are you seriously saying people are chopping down trees, transporting them, and burning them in electricity plants to produce crypto mining electricity??
If you look at where mining is centralized, it is all in regions where there's excess electricity capacity. If you understand that transporting energy is incredibly costly and impractical. If you realize that mining is a competition to have the lowest cost per transaction. I think your assertion falls flat on its face.
I think you're making an assertion based on your own bias. I'll be happy to eat my words if you can point me toward any concrete material showing otherwise.
And BTW, I never said crypto only uses waste energy. I said it doesn't burn down rain forests or suck up petroleum. What I said is it overwhelmingly uses energy that is excess capacity. Wood burning would NEVER fall into that category.
Sigh. I don't have the energy for a debate on this. I retract my challenge of proof. You'll just turn it back to me. I'll have to retrace my steps researching something I've already satisfied myself about. We'll continue to disagree. Nothing will be accomplished.
New policy. I'll just let statements like this go from now on. I'm just not interested in this kind of debate. Please feel free to have the last word. I should be satisfied to be comfortable in my own opinions without feeling the need to call people out when they don't feel the same way.
Someday I'll learn.
You just seem very invested in telling others how bad this investment is. Go on, live a little and get one. You know you want to.
You wrote: "Excess hydro, geothermal, and waste natural gas are the only electricity that are practical for use in crypto mining." (emphasis added)
I have read a fair amount as well, and I have never seen anyone not connected with the crypto industry claim that excess energy is the ONLY electricity in use for crypto mining. . Even people in the industry generally only claim that 70% of the electricity is renewables and waste energy. If you have a reliable source, please cite it.
Well, I do that but what I'm honestly hoping for is a nuanced debate with someone who can show me something. I'm definitely not trying to call anyone out. Am I? Maybe a bit but maiiiiinly it's the first thing.
Please don't learn, I quite like reading your words.
Enough with Bitcoin’s greenwashing ! Bitcoin runs mostly on fossil fuels.
With research from the University of Cambridge
Yes, not the best expression on my part. What I said made it sound like that was the only energy being used. What I meant was literally what I said that those are the only practical sources. People do impractical things all the time, so yes, some portion is undoubtedly from other sources. I believe it's a lot less than you do, obviously. And I absolutely believe Rain Forest trees are not being cut down to burn for crypto mining in any significant amounts. I've no proof of that, I'll admit. But characterizing crypto mining as destroying the rain forests is ridiculous on its face. If there's a percentage of mining electricity coming from trees, I cannot believe it's anything but a minuscule percentage.
Nope. I'm not wasting time debating. Done with that. It's a total waste of time. You can have the last word. 👍🏼😎✌🏼
Good post. Some meat rather than simply dropping an assertion as though it's fact (which I'll admit I'm guilty of). Thanks for that.
My pleasure, thanks for engaging.
Of course, I always keep circling back to the reality that debating from the energy consumption standpoint serves little purpose anyway. It's a reality, and being unhappy about it isn't going to make it go away.
But that opinion has already been challenged too so this is yet a another useless comment from me.
Thankfully for everyone, I have other stuff I gotta do right now. 👍🏼
I don't understand this logic at all. Historically, humans have sometimes been able to abandon things in use because we recognize that they are destructive. This notion that bitcoin is so intrinsically embedded that it couldn't be abandoned for something less destructive doesn't make sense. It is POSSIBLE we won't abandon it, we sadly do stick with lots of destructive practices, but we also abandon some -- and we ONLY abandon them by people unhappy about them working towards their abandonment.