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Nassim is an excellent source on anything statistical. One of those people where if you disagree with him on something, you should check your priors and reasoning very carefully. Because you're probably wrong.
Nassim Taleb is a wonder to me, as most people with his 'difficult' personality are wrong about almost everything. Total asshole, but a brilliant one.
This. Except Berlusconi's smarter.
And Trump's corruption has always been comically small scale.
This is really important, especially the part about the individual states having different responses and different rates of spread as a result. CA and WA actually appear to be doing OK. But New York is for sure in big trouble, on track to be as bad as the entire country of Italy.
I think where this type of analysis breaks down is the fact that it only analyzes the confirmed cases, so it is really tracking the increase in testing, not necessarily an accurate observation of the spread of infection. The “concerning states” like Michigan for example are showing numbers double daily most likely because they are ramping up better testing, not because there is evidence that the infection is actually doubling every day. It will take more observation to see how bad places like Michigan really are. (And since we don’t have time to wait and see, thats why immediate action is important).
The death rate is probably more accurate than testing, but is a huge lagging indicator. However looking at it can give you an idea of which states are seriously underreporting.
Of course not every dead person is being tested either.
Great story which also highlights the need to get more accurate information about rates of infection in different areas throughout the country. The delay in developing tests, mass production, distribution, testing, and getting the results back quickly has crippled the response in the U.S. More science based population test sampling would provide a clearer picture of infection rates across the nation. Local governments could develop more appropriate plans and communicate their necessity to the public which would raise compliance rates.
The current shotgun approach has little justification beyond slowing the spread by staying home so the vulnerable are protected. With no detailed information about how the infection rate is growing in the community, the public is left to come to their own conclusions about how bad it really is where they live. Given the early reports that the viral infections were mostly mild for 80% of the people and that the vulnerable population were old people or those with compromised health, many in the public came to the conclusion that the media reaction to the story was an over reaction.
If local governments are able to explain in finer detail what’s happening in their community, then the public is more likely to make the sacrifices needed to comply with the government’s plans. Many communities have significantly greater trust in their local governments than in their state or federal government which increases the rate of compliance.
Even with large outbreaks in the major cities, less densely populated communities may be slow to respond as some of its citizens believe their community is sufficiently different from those cities that infection rates won’t explode when the virus comes to their community. They believe more extreme steps should only be taken when there’s a need for them rather than too soon and damaging their local economy when there’s no need to do so. They may also hold out hope that the virus may never be able to take hold in their community as solutions and mitigation efforts will be developed to slow its spread before it reaches them.
In many ways, this social dynamic is similar to fast spreading wildfires or hurricanes where some people have a hard time accepting the natural disaster will effect them personally. The more community specific information can be shared with the public, I believe the more people will go along with measures rather than decide for themselves how to respond.
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Good idea. Let’s attack Britain 😂
Trump still has not mobilized things to ensure widespread testing. In fact, he scoffed at the idea yesterday or the day before of testing everyone. He doesn't want to see big numbers -- he was saying that out loud for quite a while. This isn't something that should be left to the states.
The reason things are so much better in South Korea is that they really wanted and want to know who is infected so that those people are not coming into contact with healthy people.
We know that a huge number of people remain asymptomatic, but without wide-scale testing, we can't know how many there are.
Without testing for antibodies, we don't know who has already had the virus without knowing it.
If we want to get back to work -- we need to know these things and the federal government needs to make it a national priority instead of pitting the states against each other.
I live in Seattle, where the first death in the US occurred which seems like an eternity ago, and which was the first hotspot for the outbreak in the US. The Washington State governor announced the first set of restrictions a week or two ago, and there were more stricter restrictions still went into force at midnight last night. Yet what I can't understand is what's the point of restrictions here or anywhere in the US when there are still so many flights.
I live underneath the approach route for Seattle airport and I can tell you since this started and still there is a constant stream of airplanes arriving and departing, every few minutes (large commercial airplanes, not small private ones).
That's at least thousands or probably tens of thousands of people potentially spreading the virus into Seattle, and out of Seattle due to:
Even if people and the airports are trying to enforce distancing with all of these, with tens of thousands of people daily still arriving/leaving Seattle it seems inevitable there will be further spreading.
If there's to be a lockdown it should be complete, why are people still traveling in droves at this time anyway.
Today’s rant: the US will pass up Italy and China for total confirmed cases today.
Yes, the disease our president said less than a month ago “ One day it’s like a miracle, it will disappear” Is now more widespread here than anywhere else.
Thank you Mr. Trump
😡
I don't doubt you for a minute, but that's odd about SEA. We live ten minutes from the Austin airport (not a hub, but usually very busy) and planes in the sky are now a decided rarity.
Good points and insight @mungbeans from someone living directly under the approach. How much, in your estimate, were the # of flights reduced by?
The governor of Louisiana said that he wasn't sure if his state's recent uptick in new cases/deaths was related to Mardi Gras. He's not a good liar.
SEA air travel is down about 34,000 passengers per day, fwiw. I just read an article that said average passengers this time last year as 50,000 per day and currently, it is 16,000. There are concerns about this.
It puzzles me, too that there is as much air traffic everywhere in the U.S. as there is.
Does't really seem to be any much noticeable difference, defiantly not a rarity as @JohnnyGoodyear has observed. Actually as I type this I can actually hear one flying overhead now, oh and here's another one I can hear (you can tell from the engine sound if its large versus small, both of these I can hear now are large).
While typing this, @espiegel123 has posted some figures, 16,000 per day still seems a huge number during this time. If 16000 is the total number traveling, lets assume half of those are departing.
Thats 8000, potentially infected people, leaving every single day from one of the main epicenters for the outbreak in the US.
lol even a broken clock is right twice a day... the problem with anything vindicating trump is that he's always lying, even when he tells the truth he doesn't know it... chloroquine was never the issue, the issue was and is his irresponsibility surrounding the virus whether it be calling it a hoax, to suggesting that it would go from 15 people dying to zero, to his administrations racist innuendo over where it came from which put asians in danger, to his super villainy of trying to buy the rights to the cure.... to his irresponsible coaxing of the masses to congregate together on easter during a freaking pandemic.
and yes he is a nazi sympathizer just ask any one of the very fine people in Charlottesville with a tikii torch who their man is in the White House and they'll tell you... but why should that be surprising since his hero and mentor was his father whom I heard got arrested for rioting with the kkk, I wonder did that really happen?
if so it would explain the lawsuit against him for refusing to rent housing to people of color, the fact that he's the only president that does not believe that people of color can be exonerated by dna test, his impassioned birther movement against Obama, and his ridiculous insinuation that cubans couldn't be evangelical christians against ted cruz.... not to mention the fact that he believes Mexican judges can't do their job because they're Mexican...
I know I know, I'm a single issue voter that needs to expand my horizons, I mean he's doing great things for wall street after all just give him a chance hahahahahahaha
@kobamoto, absolutely happened around 1927. Fred fought with police in full regalia and was arrested. Google it.
I am so terrified for these Southern states. Trump may hate the voters of New York and California, but he understands that each state has an economy larger than most nations (California's is bigger than that of the entire UK), and he can't alienate them entirely. Despite the lip service he pays to "real Americans," he doesn't give a f**k about Louisiana.
The U.S. Senate has passed the economic stimulus bill after protecting their corporate masters by tying it to minimal aid to workers. Meanwhile corporations will be able to leverage their $500 billion slush fund controlled by the Secretary of the Treasury to have access to $4 trillion dollars. I hope someone in the House has the courage to pump the breaks on the bill.
Meanwhile the Senate is off on vacation assuming the House will just roll over. If they do, that’ll just mean more consolidation of corporate control in our country funded through tax payer dollars.
When the rural south, Idaho, Iowa and the like start being really hit, I think we will see the Feds jump in. But -- remember, the people that love Trump are largely unaware that the worst was avoidable. They only know what Fox News and The Federalist have to say. They have forgotten by now that Trump was calling concern about the coronavirus a Democrat hoax.
You would think that line of reasoning alone plus his having said in February that we would be down to 0 cases soon would alert his base to his incompetence. But when he says "no one could have known", they believe him because THEY DIDN'T KNOW. They have been conditioned to believe that mainstream media is controlled by people that hate "real Americans" (and why rural white people are more "real" than Chicagoans or New Yorkers or Los Angelenos is beyond me). So, they literally think no one saw this coming and that there was nothing we could have done.
We are supposed to be the most innovative country on earth with the greatest technology -- and we couldn't get reliable test kits manufactured and distributed and start tracking the virus?
This is all so dispiriting -- and we STILL haven't mobilized to do the things that need to happen to be able to relax social distancing -- testing is woefully behind and there is no long-term strategy.
Sorry for the rant. The news has been dispiriting.
Reminds me of the traveling businesswoman who likely spread it to thousands in several countries.
According to this, about an hour ago, US cases surpassed China's. Of course the US has "tested far more than anybody else" (Trump).
Soon Trump is going to announce new guidelines for social distancing.
Food for thought. The mayor of a small town in Italy (Nembro) is a physicist and he compared the number of deaths in his town during the period that started with the first coronavirus cases and compared them to the same period last year. After subtracting out the deaths officially attributed to coronavirus as a contributor (which would include things like pneumonia after a coronavirus infection), the number of deaths this year was much much much higher than last year.
There are a lot of possible explanations. One that jumps out is that coronavirus is causing deaths not being attributed to it which may mean that in some places the death rate is actually higher than reported.
I imagine that people will start comparing overall death rates in places with significant coronavirus cases to see if this is an anomaly or true elsewhere.
There are a number of articles today mentioning this. Here is a link to one:
https://www.corriere.it/politica/20_marzo_26/the-real-death-toll-for-covid-19-is-at-least-4-times-the-official-numbers-b5af0edc-6eeb-11ea-925b-a0c3cdbe1130.shtml?refresh_ce-cp
It is possible that this will all turn out to be anecdotal, but right now it seems an interesting puzzle. I think we'll be seeing follow-up in the coming days that either debunks it or provides evidence that there is something going on.
The fact that the health services are overwhelmed is going to be a factor, simply because all the other emergencies such as heart attacks etc are less likely to be treated effectively. Even non-emergencies like cancer care are going to be far less effective in an overstretched service where healthcare staff are exhausted, ill, in quarantine etc. The virus paralyses the entire healthcare infrastructure.
In addition, in urban areas, there are long lines to get tested. Some people who feel sick don't bother to get tested, or gave up after waiting 7 hours in line. Take the metro/bus back home and try again tomorrow. (Don't do that).
Plus there are many rural convalescent homes for the elderly, miles from any hospital. It's too much too handle. Plus the never-ending nurse shortage over the years...
Yep.
The figures in my area are about 5 days behind. Testing coverage is low as well. I think what happened in New York is they panicked and massively ramped up testing.
On the same day the US records the most number of cases anywhere in the world, Trump doubles down on his urging people to go back to work in his daily briefing.
NY has 6x as many cases, and 3x as many deaths as any other state.
Worldwide, daily deaths are rising. Click the "Now" and "Yesterday" tab above the graph.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
The day is reset after midnight GMT+0.
As we all know, his base isn't just the rural areas, or the less-educated.
Ever worked on a US military installation? Ever go to the cafeteria? What channel is always playing on the TV? Some of those TVs have 'hilarious' notes attached stating that the TV must remain on that channel per the base commander. Fox News. I used to work on several. It's scary.
Sorry for paraphrasing, but that's what the news does, so...
I hear you.
Commander in Grief and his channel....
You'd have thunk it was Trump, but the channel changed during the Obama years.
Though I believe Trump or the Republicans made it official on military bases.