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A big assumption here is that the healthcare system and public compliance with measures to reduce the spread will be on average similar. What happens if there are communities where they feel safe enough to engage in behaviors which increase the rate of spread from 2-2.5 people spreading the infection to situations where it’s 4 people they transmit the virus to? What if this leads to more simultaneous hospitalizations which overwhelms local hospitals in the area? Wouldn’t this lead to a higher death rate too?
In a very real sense it’s better to focus on assuming the virus is already present in your community and you don’t know who has it. If people had this perspective and followed the guidelines for isolation and personal sanitation of themselves and surfaces, they’d significantly reduce infection rates.
Focusing and arguing about death rates and infection numbers would seem to be something for healthcare professionals to focus on and their conclusions are only as good as the information they have available. In the U.S. this testing system isn’t operational yet. Hopefully it will be soon.
We’re not in some sort of controlled experiment where they’re able to measure and control all of the variables. So when it comes to drawing conclusions from the numbers we have access to, it’s closer to a garbage in garbage out scenario when you’re in a community where you don’t know how compliant the public will be nor have done any significant testing to know what the viral load in the community is either. Plus we’ve already seen examples like the South Korean Christian church members who disproportionately spread the virus in their country relative to other citizens. With a diverse country like the U.S. how can we really even begin to accurately predict those sorts of things at this time?
Most significantly, how or why would a different death rate at this point in time have any influence on how we behave as individuals to reduce viral spread?
In the dark times
Will there also be singing?
Yes, there will also be singing
About the dark times.
– Bertolt Brecht, motto to Svendborg Poems, 1939
He is right though, we bathed once a week, swam in mucky rivers, had mumps and measles, sleep in rooms so cold the frost was on the inside, you could right your name on the windows, no central heating, just a coal fire, no fridge we had pantry.... but these days....
@Max23 I hear you. Where I live there’s very limited medical care and lots of old people. The whole just in time stocking approach for medical supplies breaks down very quickly under these circumstances especially when there was never a plan to address the increased resources needed in a crisis like this.
Many people just don’t seem to get it. Read a news story about how coffee shops in the Bay Area are fuller than usual because people who were told to work from home are going to coffee shops to do their work.
I think there will be stories about people who didn’t do what they were supposed to do because people are attracted to them the same way rubberneckers are when they drive past car accidents, they just can’t look away. In talking with some people who’ve actually gone out more recently than me, they’ve talked about schools closing, churches not meeting, people keeping a healthy distance apart from each other and stocking up on cleaning and food supplies so presumably all of these behaviors will lead to lower infection rates.
Damn, things are getting serious when the NRA cancels its national meeting.
Those bastards bought all the Dr Pepper when I went to the grocery store tonight. What a society.
Let the hate flow through you my brother....
very little concern here in Savannah, Georgia, tho I get emails from businesses demonstrating their intent to run cleaner. I give it two weeks till these crackers are pissing their pants.
Meanwhile the obsequious (Pence being the ass licker in chief) still lick Donald Trump’s ass (sounds transmissible), and both refuse to be tested. ConDon refuses to take any responsibility. Obama did it!.
Pence said publicly that he and his master must shake hands With the people. Part of the job. Then why all the videos of him elbow bumping? This toadie lies.... even to his daddy. And if the Stable Imbecile goes down he will be Number One. But for now he is just number two.
I can't believe they haven't used their rank to get tested. They just don't want the "little people" to cry foul at demonstration of privilege or expect access to testing.
It would be an amazing irony if he contracts it after putting out such misleading information for his
political polling numbers and no other potential benefit possible.
They are still stuck in campaign mode to matin power without using the nuclear option of declaring martial law to remain in power.
really liked the empathy in @AudioGus ' post
I'm bummed because they just closed the big arts centre here until April 5th, which kills a gig I was to play there next week. Now I'm concerned that the dance group classes I make music for every week (with my fabulous double-iPad rig) might get shut down for a while as well.
@McD ... martial law... of course.
We can’t entirely scapegoat governments, no, but after this, we must learn, we must, it will take time, maybe many generations, first we will build better national collaboration, then international collaboration, because this is the fault of humanity, humanity holds the key to it’s solution and other problems that will arise. We may fall, but we also stand as one human race on our beautiful planet.
+1. The old British class system firmly back in place. Cannon fodder.
And that, is how they win.
'no one voted for pulmonary fibrosis' followed by 'they all knew what they were voting for' 😬
Herd immunity strategy (which I think is insane):
https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-can-herd-immunity-really-protect-us-133583
Also, anyone who knows anything about the sorts of mathematical models that the behavourial psychologists are using knows that they are incapable of modelling actual human behaviour, so relying on them is madness.
Herd immunity is a real thing it works, the only problem, the herd, is the world, not just the UK.
It works in humans by means of vaccination though, not by waiting for two thirds of the population to get ill.
What makes me more sad is you already see how fast humans get angry and selfish in such situations. Even the most good and helpful transforms into a world war Z zombie. Then we should ask if we are better. Would you share your toilet paper? If there are just 2 packages of noodles will you take them both?
Mankind is not made for working together and such a world wide crisis which could getting more worse shows that again.
We are more stupid as animals. Maybe it is just the immune system of the earth.
Just an example of Johnson acknowledging via his usual delivery method of lying, that he can’t do anything, because his party have spent the last ten years running all essential services down beyond their ability to cope, even without a pandemic.
Even if he could do anything positive, he wouldn’t.
The UK population have been royally screwed over, and there could be half a million deaths as a result.
That packaging uses the same amount of plastic as hundreds of plastic bags, yet many areas have banned stores from using plastic bags.
That’s absolutely correct, one thing that they’re only just waking up to, well some at least, is the fact that transmission is really widespread, it was in Italy, hence the rapid explosion in cases. It’s why the numbers were statistically out of line in Italy, they were just using detected cases, the vast majority or not detected.