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It seems to me that this sort of post crosses over into a personal attack of another forum member and therefore would be OT. Perhaps it’d be best if we focus on our own rants rather than direct our ire upon each other especially if we expect Michael to continue to tolerate the existence of this thread?
Already the numbers coming out are skewed. In Sweden, which did absolutely nothing for as long as absolutely possible because "no need to be alarmists, we can handle this", 2 days ago announced that we can't even test you even if you want to. That means that you can have it, without getting it confirmed, and it is up to you to take the correct actions (not seeing/infecting others). This in turn obviously means that the official numbers coming out of Sweden, which are the confirmed cases, and I guess it is similar for a bunch of other countries, have very little to do with the reality and the real/actual number of infected.
As you measure you get results. If you don't measure the number will be lower. Simple.
Also 2 days ago, there were 8 tests carried out in the whole of the US (according to Guardian article). I don't think the numbers coming out of the US are correct either when looking for how many who are actually infected.
China has passed the point of hiding it now, so they now want to lead the way in how to combat it (though they take measures not many other countries can do, for humanitarian reasons). Also, not every country can get 1000's of people to track every infected person, as they in most other countries already have other jobs/tasks and the head of state can't command that many people at the wave of a hand. Only China still can do that.
The early numbers from China comparing infected vs deaths all had the same % of deaths, down to second or third decimal. Impressive. Incredible coincidence too.
The numbers from Iran I don't trust at all, and they have surprisingly many days in a row ended up on nice round numbers.
The trouble with this is that it can be asymptomatic for a while and some people have no symptoms. No nation in the world can afford or is able to test everyone so. Don’t test unless absolutely necessary. Test key health staff, carers etc. Test people who have displayed symptoms and have quarantined and seem ready to get back in action. Everyone keeps going on about testing. Why? If you’re sick, stay at home until you’re well. This collective hypochondria is a result of over medication and self obsession.
I’m not pissed off with uk government’s current policies. I’m pissed off with a level at which all governments are raping the environment while pretending everything’s ok. With the rampant capitalism where everything’s measured by the amount of growth. Welcome to the fucked up system we’re living in. But of course we’re not going to be leaving this life with a smile on our faces...we’re spiritually not grown up enough to face it. We’ll be shouting ‘nurse’ on top of our lungs until our last breath. Yes we will because it is our right to live to dominate etc etc. Yet we’re nothing more than lichen on a rock.
@hellquist it’s well documented that in the U.S. there’s currently not much testing capacity. In addition there are a lot of different administrative systems that need to coordinate to turn this around. I read a story about the run around a reporter in Washington state got trying to get an answer to how much it would cost to test. It wasn’t good. Hopefully the declaration of a national emergency will be able to cut through these barriers, we’ll see in the next couple of weeks.
At this point the only practical solutions are shutting down meetings whether they’re schools, work places, churches, or entertainment venues. They’re certainly less comprehensive than the steps other countries have taken and unprecedented for the U.S. during my lifetime— in the next month or so we’ll learn how effective they’ve been. It all boils down to how many people have decided to follow the social isolation and sanitation measures that have saturated all of the media outlets. In the U.S. there’s likely to be a variation in how different states and communities respond with associated consequences.
At least it appears Congress and the administration have agreed upon some measures which will facilitate the ability of workers to stay home rather than go to work.
Weak assed lichen bitches.
Overnight, The number of UK deaths has doubled and the number of confirmed cases has gone up by 30%. We are on exactly the same trajectory as Italy, lagging them by around 10 days.
It's pretty certain that government policy will change next week once the health service can no longer cope.
@InfoCheck, you have earned a lot of respect here and I am one of those who respects you. If you don’t think the poster was making a personal attack on all who disagree with him then you are missing the big picture, IMO. He paints us all with his alternative facts brush.
We are no longer in a simpler delusional world where everyone goes about his or her business with whatever beliefs good or bad they hold and they are somewhat under control. Folks with this Orwellian mindset are making decisions that affect our lives at the deepest existential level. I am all for civility, but not when pure misguided, misinformed and malevolent intentions are displayed before my eyes. It is not for no reason that the fight of good against evil is portrayed artistically and fought for in “reality” by generations. That good and evil is quite malleable In people’s minds leads us to unspeakable horror overall. Yes, there are islands of compassion and self sacrifice, but largely our lesser angels rule and the veneer of civilized society is thin indeed.
I don’t think @michael will close this thread. Idle venting and rants about this or that government are rather purposeless, IMO. But hearing the voices of ignorance and hatred... we can no longer shield ourselves from that with our own cozy little worlds. That snug little denial space is gone and a cold appraisal of the world we live in is unavoidable. I have avoided that appraisal for seventy years. But, in light of recent events, I no longer can. I am philosophical about it. The world will survive and probably be better off for it. But the voices of chaos and self destruction cannot go unchallenged. Not because it has any deep meaning, but because the enslavement of the human mind is at the center of our human predicament. We live in a human space. It is meaningless in the scheme of things. But between us all it matters.
I miss the good old days.
Just a reminder: if you haven't read the following article to understand why social distancing will still have an impact on the pandemic's lethality you should.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
It also provides some good info on how to extrapolate a reasonable idea of the actual infection rate from the incomplete data
For those of you thinking: "this can't be contained -- so, I am not going to do this social distancing stuff": PLEASE read the article carefully -- the phase we are in is mitigation not containment -- and we can all actively influence the course of the pandemic in our communities by taking action -- and please spread the word and share the article with people. Most people are unaware of the reasons why this is so important.
READ THE ARTICLE and pass it on. We can reduce the lethality of the pandemic. It is science. And the reasons are not obvious to some until they read how the pieces of the puzzle fit together.
i think there is only one difference between china and EU .... in china, they did know exact numbees, they were just hiding them... in EU nobody knows real numbers, because most goverments are incometent bureaucrats...
choose what is better
i personally choose china..
@supadom et al: re herd immunity. Even the worst case scenarios that I have read from epidemiologists indicates something like 70% of the population coming down with the virus with no mitigation practices. 70% is not enough for herd immunity to kick in. The number of people required to achieve herd immunity varies with the virus. For the measles, the number is about 95% of the population needs to be immune. The more easily transmissible the virus, the higher the percentage of the population needs to be immune. There are viruses where it is as low as 80%.
It does not appear that enough of the population even in a worst case scenario will become immune to achieve herd immunity naturally.
Now, add to that, we don't know (should I have put the last three words in all caps? maybe) if this virus is mutating slowly enough to ensure that becoming infected provides long-lasting immunity OR if this is a virus like the flu where there are distinct families that don't have cross-immunity. We know that there are now two branches of it but don't yet know how different they are in terms of immunity. With flu, if you achieve immunity to one of the families, young you actually become MORE susceptible to the other family. That is why flu vaccines always have representatives of both viral families.
We don't yet know what percentage of people are subject t re-infection. The early data are inconclusive.
So, it seems very risky for anyone to be making bets that rely on the best case scenario about the virus.
(By the way, even if the lethality were the same as the flu that would be a HUGE number of dead people -- but epidemiologists seem to agree that coronavirus is on the order of 5 to 50 times more lethal.)
Everything you say is 100% correct , but I find it hard to understand why this sort of panic isn’t happening every year with 650,000 people dying Regularly from just normal flu ?
I’ve worked in healthcare in the past and with the elderly so have always understood how important one’s personal hygiene routine is , especially around the elderly . What makes this virus different ? Surely a virus that kills so many each year should invoke equal concern if not more ? This is why I fail to take this supposed pandemic with any more concern than I would normally each year . Maybe with global worming we need more concern because the flu season will last longer as we warm 🤔.....
Either way, personal hygiene and being aware or your actions are 2 things that are as important as each other..... Hopefully we can take good from this experience and keep up with better personal hygiene routines..... I was always told as a child you shouldn’t eat free bar snacks sat out 🤢🤮 so at the very least we can enjoy free peanuts again
As long as ye don’t have any allergies 😳
The National Post is Dog Shit
I think the panic is that if it is indeed 10-15 times worse than the normal flu than the deaths would be 10-15 time worse too. Simply put the system is balanced right now to take care of and accept (as you say) 650,000 deaths (I don’t know the number) but 10-15 times more would then be 6,500,000 to 10,000,000. That is a lot more bodies to process. Also it is a big old unpleasant existential reminder of the nasty end that inevitably awaits us all one day (ie. everybody dies but we find ways to not think about it every minute of the day).
@SilverK , have you read the article that @espiegel123 just reposted above ? Experts estimate this is in the order of 5 to 50 times deadlier than the flu....and there is already a vaccine for that virus. It’s not just about the numbers either, it’s about by how far those numbers exceed the threshold of our health services’ ability to manage.
Take a look at Italy - do you think it’s going well over there ?
@SilverK : Perhaps you aren't familiar with the fatality statistics of the flu. In the U.S., 61,000 people died in last season's flu. That was one of the worst years in the last decade. The year prior it was 38,000 and the year before that 23,000.
So a VERY bad flu season killed about 60,000 people in the U.S.
IN THE U.S. ALONE, this epidemic is expected to cause 300,00 to 1.5 million deaths. So, the BEST CASE is 5 times worse than the flu. BUT most public health folks say that unless something changes dramatically in the next 12 months (such as finding a way of treating severe cases without a respirator or hospitalization), think that best case is more like 500,000 with fairly high odds that it will be significantly worst.
Now, those are just the deaths directly attributable to the coronavirus (and infections that result from it like pneumonia) it DOES NOT include the additional deaths that will occur to people as the result of a lack of hospital and medical resources because the health care system will be overburdened.
Take a look at the stats about the number of hospital beds available in your country. Look up the stats on how many people will need hospitalization for coronavirus related illness.
Seriously, read the article over and over till you understand those things.
Here is another article EVERYONE should read PARTICULARLY if you are a social distancing skeptic:
https://medium.com/@ariadnelabs/social-distancing-this-is-not-a-snow-day-ac21d7fa78b4
I’m not supportive of @rackersr personal attacks either. We don’t agree on the need to address the points @rackersr made. I believe people can come to their own conclusions. To be honest you did put out a call to have people challenge your political point of view and encouraged them to engage in controversy. It’s therefore not surprising to me that someone responded as they did.
It seems to me both of the responses had a lot of anger in them which shouldn’t be too surprising on a rant thread; however, I still think it’s not a good idea nor respectful to engage in personal attacks especially when the OP has specifically asked us not to engage in them. Perhaps it’d be better to open up a new thread where it’s acceptable to rant at each other? Individuals could then decide if that’s something they’re interested in participating in or not. At the very least they’ll be exercising some form of consent rather than having the rules or expectations of the thread change mid-stream.
@InfoCheck : yeah, i agree about personal attacks. I think we can rage at MAGA without attacking individuals that express MAGA-friendliness
The post that conflated people that believe in global warming with people that think the world is going into 12 years speaks for itself with the quality of its reasoning. Almost no one in the scientific community believes the world will end in 12 years. There is near unanimity among climate scientists that manmade C02 is contributing to global climate change.
If one makes such specious connections, it demonstrates the overall merits or demerits of the thought processes that lead to the rest of the conclusions.
The notion expressed by someone I choose not to @ (since it is clear that his mind is made up and he is not interested in considering other viewpoints -- which is certainly his right) that only an individual can decide what actions are appropriate for him/her/whatever's self is profoundly sociopathic BY DEFINITION.
Humans are a social species. Being social beings means that we survive only by virtue of social constructs.There are many different ways that social groups can organize and many different rule structures that can be put in place -- but it is a simple fact that humans are social beings.
If one chooses to live by rules at odds with the social group (tribe, city, country, commune, whatever), the social group will decide what happens to you regardless of one's notion of extreme autonomy.
There is literally no society on earth that exists with no rules.
@InfoCheck, the OP did not request civility, I think. on this thread, but the other one. The helpful one.
Besides, who ever listens to the OP or does not stray from the topic?
Of course I am angry at people spouting imbecilities when he represents so many amongst us who worship a pathological liar... who refuse to believe the evidence before their own eyes when his lies are exposed by comparison videos of his statements. 2+2=4 no longer matters to these people. The best you can say about them is that they are misinformed and don’t have the intellectual curiosity to lift their heads up from the slop trough. At worst they are haters only seeking to serve their own xenophobic, bigoted, white interests. I can be angry and I can also not give a shit. On this thread ( not the other, helpful one) I choose to be angry.
These fools will pay the same price we will, but they will go to their graves blaming others for not seeing the “truth”.
Once again we disagree, we clearly have interpreted the OP differently. I will admit to going off topic occasionally though there’s certainly many others who do so frequently on the forum without much protest from the thread’s posters or OP. For me there’s a significant difference between going off on a tangent that strays from the topic versus engaging in personal attacks with other members.
@espiegel123, absolutely right that no society can exist without rules, but these rules need neither be “good” or “bad”, right or wrong. We value children amongst all else (sort of), but the Romans threw unwanted baby girls on the far side of the river to die. No harm, no foul. Just following the rules of the day.
The best way to expose someone's unreasonableness (imo) is to be reasonable and clear in one's communication back to them. It is amazing how often (unable to contain their rage and irrationality) they just explode into a general rant against "the libs" (even if they are talking to a conservative) regardless of its relevance.
@InfoCheck, we do indeed, disagree. Today is a special day. And yes, I certainly and purposely invited opposing views. He did not disappoint and, as I said, is representative of large numbers whose beliefs are unsupported by evidence.
Gee, @espiegel123, and there I thought I was being reasonable and clear. My bad!
I do think @rackersr has serious CO2 issues though, I would suspect the scrubbers are defective in his bunkers ventilation system.
My point was simply that if someone uses "only I get to decide what the rules for me are" as a starting point for their reasoning they are literally espousing sociopathy and have built an argument on something that has no foundation. There are all kinds of debates one can have about what good sets of rules are -- but humans as a whole can't survive without some rules imposed by the group -- even if they are as simple as "you don't get to kill people or poop in my water".
@espiegel123, agreed, but sometimes those rules include genocide. Even in the US the rules are fractured as some thought Jim Crow “laws” were and still are applicable.
You raised interesting points about the individual versus the group. For various reasons, the needs of the group don’t always serve or match up with the needs of the individual. There’s frequently tension between these two. For individuals who live in a group where the group’s rules and norms serve them well, they’re going to have a much more positive opinion about them versus someone who believes and feels the group’s rules do not serve them well. The rules and norms of groups evolve over time and are not therefore static or necessarily that objective although there are many commonalities across different groups over time as well as differences. If someone should pathologize someone because they believe the group’s rules and norms aren’t for them, it doesn’t seem fair to me. Perhaps the group should be more willing to reconsider their rules and norms to accommodate them?
@espiegel123 @LinearLineman I would refer you to the second and fourth sentences which I interpreted as not engaging in personal attacks on forum members.