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OT: Vent About Global Pandemic Management *HERE*

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Comments

  • @richardyot said:
    Herd immunity strategy (which I think is insane):

    https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-can-herd-immunity-really-protect-us-133583

    Also, anyone who knows anything about the sorts of mathematical models that the behavourial psychologists are using knows that they are incapable of modelling actual human behaviour, so relying on them is madness.

    @rackersr said:

    @LinearLineman said:
    I find it very interesting that there is no serious conflict on this potentially cantankerous thread. I have done my best to stir the pot but no takers. If you think that this is because the world has come to its senses, think again.

    There was a hand washing poll: Republicans polled they would wash their hands half as much as Democrats. There is no sea change in Trump’s base, and Fox News, for the most part, has not altered course.

    We are, let’s face it, a very liberal group of people (at least the ones who post). The few who could be counted on to defend the Republican party line here seem to have decided it is not worth it for them to stick their necks out any longer. To us liberal thinkers it may seem like there is no opposing argument because any such arguments are indefensible or that people have changed their minds. Frankly, I doubt it. Now they just talk amongst themselves.

    1. I don’t know what is liberal about liberalism, but it isn’t based on Liberty and Rights.
    2. I’m a Libertarian, the far opposite of being a Liberal.
    3. You may be right about other, but you are absolutely right about me. It is not worth it for me to stick my neck out for the most of you... the angry liberal clueless ones who believe CO2 is bad for the planet and the world will end in 12 years, those who insist I read or watch snipe from the likes of Rachel Maddow, or anyone else on MSNBC, CNN, ... or they will turn a deaf ear... isn’t she oen of those credible sources everyone tells me about that preached Russia, Russia, Russia every single program of every single day... oops, that didn’t turn out so well. These media people lie to you every single day, I have never lied to you nor anyone else on this board, nor anywhere else, and someone thinks they have the right to question my honesty or integrity?

    Who do you think gives you that right? Only one person in this world can grant that right and that is me. I don’t grant that right to anyone... unless I lie. Then the entire world has been granted that right, and I can never even beg for it back.

    Because it’s too late for most of you. Big changes are already taking place right under your noses and you don’t even see it.
    The problem is no one here seems to be able to ask the right questions. They have you all distracted and confused and angry and panicking... frankly, it reminds me of playing Lemmings years ago...
    Most of you have been walked up to the brink of insanity by the lying media and some of you, I fear, will not be able to deal with events taking place now and in the near future.
    As far as Corona Virus... I wash my hands like always and that’s about all the thought I give to it.
    I pay more attention to flu season every year.
    4. Anyone who doesn’t understand why people avoid vaccinations hasn’t done their homework on the subject... just like “Climate Change”
    5. You state there are no opposing defensible arguments. That one made me laugh. I have no desire to engage in discourse with people who are clueless.
    6. Our President has not only saved this Country, he has saved the World. Anyone who wants to dispute that has no idea what has happened, is happening, and is going to happen. Period. Please read that again... He has already saved the World. He and many others, many who’ve lost their lives doing their part. I have done my part. Anyone who reads this has been enlightened whether or not they accept it. I am willing to speak on behalf of anyone else who understands what is happening, but has their own reasons for not posting. Perhaps the other non-liberals have better things to do than read clueless angry drivel... probably helping some other non-liberal with something or accepting help from another non-liberal... we’re just like that.
    7. Those who think they can throw vile my way like it’s going to hurt my feelings, or to shame me in some odd way, like calling me racist, or one of the many other meaningless attacks liberals try to use,... fire away. Vent all your anger out of your body if that’s what it takes, I’m a big boy, I can take it. I’ll read all of it, but there will be no more posts from me in this thread. I have a garden to get ready for planting and a thousand better things to do than be lectured by people who’ve lost the ability to think for themselves with a CRITICAL MIND!! Start asking the right questions and you’ll be surprised what you’ll learn.
    8. I will read this thread to the end as a courtesy to anyone who needs to vent.

    I still listen to you all.
    I still wish you all nothing but the best in your lives.

    And so does Donald Trump.
    And your life is going to be more remarkable than you can imagine. That’s what saddens me when I witness all this anger. Though totally justified, it is misplaced upon our President.
    It took time to change the world, and it takes time to awaken the public. If you don’t know or understand what’s happening, you can’t share in the excitement and magnitude of current events.

    Here’s a wake-up call... Have you wondered why so many top executives have resigned lately? Bill Gates resigned from Microsoft today. What is the connecting factor behind all these resignations... When the truth comes out, it will come as a flood and you’ll find out whom you have the right to direct your anger at. Warning: You will be angrier at the real culprits than you are at President Trump. Do not let it overwhelm you. Remember to have compassion along with the anger. Some people got roped into something and couldn’t find a safe way out. Pity them for being spineless and short-sighted, be angry at their upsetting deeds, and hold them accountable with a compassionate heart.

    Atlas Babbled

  • @richardyot said:
    Overnight, The number of UK deaths has doubled and the number of confirmed cases has gone up by 30%. We are on exactly the same trajectory as Italy, lagging them by around 10 days.

    It's pretty certain that government policy will change next week once the health service can no longer cope.

    It can’t cope now.

    Talking to a friend today who’s a senior NHS worker in a city hospital. Says they’re treating patients in corridors because of bed shortages. And they don’t have any virus patients in yet.

    She says it will be total carnage in a week or so.

    The Tories have decimated the NHS and care system, and will have the blood of hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths on their hands.

  • wimwim
    edited March 2020

    @LinearLineman said:

    @wim said:

    @LinearLineman said:
    @wim I am saddened you haven’t tried to ameliorate my negativity. Maybe you see how much I enjoy it.

    To be honest, you kinda scared me a little. I was afraid to engage. :D

    Don’t be afraid @wim. Dive right in. The water’s fine.

    Actually, you really do seem to enjoy it don’t you? ;)

    Well, like I said, I don’t do politics. And I only enjoy venting my rage when I feel it’s going to accomplish something (which it rarely does, but oh well). Venting doesn’t make me feel any better, it makes me feel worse. I have finally begun to learn that it does help others and shouldn’t be impeded ... much to my wife’s relief.

    I’m fortunate to have an incredibly unfairly blessed life. I also live in a One Party Rule state where it really makes no difference what side of the political fence I’m on, I’m powerless to change anything ... so I’m free from caring. :D

    So I say rail away if it’s therapeutic!

  • @InfoCheck : sure there will be tension between individuals and the group. I am one who often feels differently from the group...but as an individual I don't get to determine the rules. I can advocate for different rules but as a matter of definition, the group (for better or worse) determinines the rules.

    Societies change over time in response to the tension between the individual and the group. And it sucks to be an individual strongly at odds with the group...particularly when the group is grievously hideously inhumane.

    I am not saying the group always comes up with good rules or that we shouldn't try to change them. we should .., heck I come from a family touched by legal genocide.

  • @LinearLineman You're a droll ironist, and that talent is simply lost on some people here. I recognize your anger with those who don't argue in good faith; I implore you not to engage them. Which is hilarious coming from me, I realize. But that's my quarantine goal, to not throw back the garbage that people dump.

    Another goal: running 5 miles every day. I am really enjoying running in the afternoons instead of the mornings. I'm so much faster! HUGE benefit to working from home!

  • @espiegel123 said:
    @InfoCheck : sure there will be tension between individuals and the group. I am one who often feels differently from the group...but as an individual I don't get to determine the rules. I can advocate for different rules but as a matter of definition, the group (for better or worse) determinines the rules.

    Societies change over time in response to the tension between the individual and the group. And it sucks to be an individual strongly at odds with the group...particularly when the group is grievously hideously inhumane.

    I am not saying the group always comes up with good rules or that we shouldn't try to change them. we should .., heck I come from a family touched by legal genocide.

    I’m not so sure about the group determining the rules for better or worse because there are many groups and they’re often in conflict with each other. The victor writes history. I think there’s definitely a lot of variation with respect to whether or not individuals would agree that the group determines the rules. There have certainly been no shortage of revolutions of all sorts along the way.

  • @InfoCheck said:

    @espiegel123 said:
    @InfoCheck : sure there will be tension between individuals and the group. I am one who often feels differently from the group...but as an individual I don't get to determine the rules. I can advocate for different rules but as a matter of definition, the group (for better or worse) determinines the rules.

    Societies change over time in response to the tension between the individual and the group. And it sucks to be an individual strongly at odds with the group...particularly when the group is grievously hideously inhumane.

    I am not saying the group always comes up with good rules or that we shouldn't try to change them. we should .., heck I come from a family touched by legal genocide.

    I’m not so sure about the group determining the rules for better or worse because there are many groups and they’re often in conflict with each other. The victor writes history. I think there’s definitely a lot of variation with respect to whether or not individuals would agree that the group determines the rules. There have certainly been no shortage of revolutions of all sorts along the way.

    That is completely consistent with my point. The fact that revolutions happen doesn't mean that there aren't rules. They are a way that societies reorganize when there are explosive tensions between a mounting number of individuals and the group. There is no (in the strictly objective sense) one social system -- and no social system will be unchanging. But social systems are inevitable. We are literally coded for it in our DNA.

    Revolutions and changes over time are a demonstration of what I posited. Societies are essentially a set of rules. If you say "only i get to determine what actions I can take and you take an action in gross violation of any number of the social groupings to which you belong -- you will find that your freedom has limits". It isn't conceivable that humans could survive in the long-term without social groupings. Whether we can create rules that work for our long-term advantage, we will only find out in the long-term. It may well be that modern humans aren't capable of forming social groupings that benefit humanity in the long-term. We might well annihilate ourselves (slowly through destruction of our ecosystem or rapidly through nuclear or biowar) because our DNA provides greater flexibility in social reorganization than we can manage in conjunction with our ability to develop and use technology.

  • @espiegel123 maybe you could clarify what you meant by sociopathic?

  • @InfoCheck, I take issue with “honestly voiced opinions”.
    @wim, actually, it has been enjoyable and it felt good not to just be quiet. I had thought of, and even drafted, a post for my own thread, but thought better of it. @McD presented an opportunity I could not resist.

    One last time and then I will shut up. Racksr is a hit and run artist. He presents specious opinions without a shred of evidence and then says he will no longer post. I never denied his right to say anything, but I do expect some backup to a claim like the Donald has saved the world. As for myself, I am often wrong in my thinking, but someone needs to show me the light where I am. That is the purpose, for me, of discourse such as this. All this one sided bitching seems a bit windy without some decent and passionate back and forth. Yes, I meant to provoke. Otherwise it’s a bunch of guys saying, agreeing with each other. So now, on this subject, over and out and namaste (which for those who may not know means I bow to you. Very appropriate in this elbow bump world, no? But I heard a definition that resonates more for me... the light in me recognizes the light in you. Safe landings, friends.

  • @InfoCheck said:
    @espiegel123 maybe you could clarify what you meant by sociopathic?

    If a person finds it impossible to modulate their behavior to live within the broader norms (many of which are unwritten) established by the social grouping within which they live. In a way, these are people who don't internally acknowledge the validity of any social norms.

    This is different from disagreeing with society. There are some people who simply in their mind (though they often adroitly pretend otherwise) believe that the only rules to consider are the ones they make up for themselves.

    This is probably not a super great way to put it. There is a difference between being at odds with society and being narcissistic to the point of not having respect for any social norms -- where social norm does not necessarily even mean mainstream society. For example, a Jew in Nazi Germany that does not accept the rules put in place by the Nazis -- was likely to still be a part of some smaller community whose norms they adopt and use to modulate their behavior. They aren't being sociopathic in rejecting Nazi Germany nor would a slave rejecting the rules that enslave them. But both of those people going to be a part of some other social grouping and modulate their behavior and communication according to the unwritten rules of that social group.

  • @LinearLineman the only thing I know about Racksr was the post on this thread so I really don’t have any insight into how much of what was written, they believe. You could have had more experience with them than that.

    @McD might have been either too optimistic or simply wanted to extend the life of the thread by asking people to target non forum members on a rant thread. It seems to me it’s a tough request to separate our strong thoughts and feelings in a rant from the person posting them. I’m not that passionate so it’s fair to say that I probably can’t empathize with those who are 🤷🏼‍♂️ so my responses could be off base.

  • @ExAsperis99 said:
    Another goal: running 5 miles every day. I am really enjoying running in the afternoons instead of the mornings. I'm so much faster! HUGE benefit to working from home!

    Masked, I trust.

    Seriously, keep it up cowboy.

  • @MonzoPro said:

    @richardyot said:
    Overnight, The number of UK deaths has doubled and the number of confirmed cases has gone up by 30%. We are on exactly the same trajectory as Italy, lagging them by around 10 days.

    It's pretty certain that government policy will change next week once the health service can no longer cope.

    It can’t cope now.

    Talking to a friend today who’s a senior NHS worker in a city hospital. Says they’re treating patients in corridors because of bed shortages. And they don’t have any virus patients in yet.

    She says it will be total carnage in a week or so.

    The Tories have decimated the NHS and care system, and will have the blood of hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths on their hands.

    Also they’re not really bothered about testing anymore, the suggestion is to self isolate for seven days, getting back only if your condition worsens, that’s was advice given to me and exactly the same to a friend in another city miles away. The 1% to 2% mortality rate could be pushed up towards the 15% that will be severe cases because of the sheer number of cases.
    It’s no wonder they need the police, to try to stop the outpouring of grief and anger of this brexit addled deranged egotistical government.

  • @espiegel123 said:

    @InfoCheck said:
    @espiegel123 maybe you could clarify what you meant by sociopathic?

    If a person finds it impossible to modulate their behavior to live within the broader norms (many of which are unwritten) established by the social grouping within which they live. In a way, these are people who don't internally acknowledge the validity of any social norms.

    This is different from disagreeing with society. There are some people who simply in their mind (though they often adroitly pretend otherwise) believe that the only rules to consider are the ones they make up for themselves.

    This is probably not a super great way to put it. There is a difference between being at odds with society and being narcissistic to the point of not having respect for any social norms -- where social norm does not necessarily even mean mainstream society. For example, a Jew in Nazi Germany that does not accept the rules put in place by the Nazis -- was likely to still be a part of some smaller community whose norms they adopt and use to modulate their behavior. They aren't being sociopathic in rejecting Nazi Germany nor would a slave rejecting the rules that enslave them. But both of those people going to be a part of some other social grouping and modulate their behavior and communication according to the unwritten rules of that social group.

    It seemed like a fairly standard rant post to me and didn’t seem to rise to the level of comparison with Germany in WWII. I would have needed a lot more behavior over a longer period of time than just this post to consider them to be sociopathic though more to the point it seems to fall more under the purview of a psychologist which I am not. It also seems there were in fact groups they identified with so your focus on one aspect of their libertarian POV as a justification for being classified as a sociopath may have been questionable?

  • @knewspeak said:

    @MonzoPro said:

    @richardyot said:
    Overnight, The number of UK deaths has doubled and the number of confirmed cases has gone up by 30%. We are on exactly the same trajectory as Italy, lagging them by around 10 days.

    It's pretty certain that government policy will change next week once the health service can no longer cope.

    It can’t cope now.

    Talking to a friend today who’s a senior NHS worker in a city hospital. Says they’re treating patients in corridors because of bed shortages. And they don’t have any virus patients in yet.

    She says it will be total carnage in a week or so.

    The Tories have decimated the NHS and care system, and will have the blood of hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths on their hands.

    Also they’re not really bothered about testing anymore, the suggestion is to self isolate for seven days, getting back only if your condition worsens, that’s was advice given to me and exactly the same to a friend in another city miles away. The 1% to 2% mortality rate could be pushed up towards the 15% that will be severe cases because of the sheer number of cases.
    It’s no wonder they need the police, to try to stop the outpouring of grief and anger of this brexit addled deranged egotistical government.

    Any idea why they went with the seven days of self isolation versus the 14 days I’ve been reading about?

  • @knewspeak said:

    @MonzoPro said:

    @richardyot said:
    Overnight, The number of UK deaths has doubled and the number of confirmed cases has gone up by 30%. We are on exactly the same trajectory as Italy, lagging them by around 10 days.

    It's pretty certain that government policy will change next week once the health service can no longer cope.

    It can’t cope now.

    Talking to a friend today who’s a senior NHS worker in a city hospital. Says they’re treating patients in corridors because of bed shortages. And they don’t have any virus patients in yet.

    She says it will be total carnage in a week or so.

    The Tories have decimated the NHS and care system, and will have the blood of hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths on their hands.

    Also they’re not really bothered about testing anymore, the suggestion is to self isolate for seven days, getting back only if your condition worsens, that’s was advice given to me and exactly the same to a friend in another city miles away. The 1% to 2% mortality rate could be pushed up towards the 15% that will be severe cases because of the sheer number of cases.
    It’s no wonder they need the police, to try to stop the outpouring of grief and anger of this brexit addled deranged egotistical government.

    And yet the demented bastards are still wasting time, money and resources in Brexit talks, and doing a feasability study for a bridge across the Irish sea.

    The UK has turned into a script for a comedy disaster movie, rejected for being too far-fetched.

  • @MonzoPro said:

    @knewspeak said:

    @MonzoPro said:

    @richardyot said:
    Overnight, The number of UK deaths has doubled and the number of confirmed cases has gone up by 30%. We are on exactly the same trajectory as Italy, lagging them by around 10 days.

    It's pretty certain that government policy will change next week once the health service can no longer cope.

    It can’t cope now.

    Talking to a friend today who’s a senior NHS worker in a city hospital. Says they’re treating patients in corridors because of bed shortages. And they don’t have any virus patients in yet.

    She says it will be total carnage in a week or so.

    The Tories have decimated the NHS and care system, and will have the blood of hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths on their hands.

    Also they’re not really bothered about testing anymore, the suggestion is to self isolate for seven days, getting back only if your condition worsens, that’s was advice given to me and exactly the same to a friend in another city miles away. The 1% to 2% mortality rate could be pushed up towards the 15% that will be severe cases because of the sheer number of cases.
    It’s no wonder they need the police, to try to stop the outpouring of grief and anger of this brexit addled deranged egotistical government.

    And yet the demented bastards are still wasting time, money and resources in Brexit talks, and doing a feasability study for a bridge across the Irish sea.

    The UK has turned into a script for a comedy disaster movie, rejected for being too far-fetched.

    They’re so deranged nothing will stop brexit, no amount of carnage, how much more must we turn a blind eye to.

  • @robertreynolds said:

    @LinearLineman said:
    I find it very interesting that there is no serious conflict on this potentially cantankerous thread.

    At least you’ve admitted you’re just a shit stirrer with no real intention of debating in good faith. So I’ll give you that.

    Oh no you di'n't... Oh Lordy. Release the Kraken. I haven't read the response yet. (Grabs pop corn and sinks into Barcalounger). UFC Cage match.

  • @InfoCheck said:

    @espiegel123 said:

    @InfoCheck said:
    @espiegel123 maybe you could clarify what you meant by sociopathic?

    If a person finds it impossible to modulate their behavior to live within the broader norms (many of which are unwritten) established by the social grouping within which they live. In a way, these are people who don't internally acknowledge the validity of any social norms.

    This is different from disagreeing with society. There are some people who simply in their mind (though they often adroitly pretend otherwise) believe that the only rules to consider are the ones they make up for themselves.

    This is probably not a super great way to put it. There is a difference between being at odds with society and being narcissistic to the point of not having respect for any social norms -- where social norm does not necessarily even mean mainstream society. For example, a Jew in Nazi Germany that does not accept the rules put in place by the Nazis -- was likely to still be a part of some smaller community whose norms they adopt and use to modulate their behavior. They aren't being sociopathic in rejecting Nazi Germany nor would a slave rejecting the rules that enslave them. But both of those people going to be a part of some other social grouping and modulate their behavior and communication according to the unwritten rules of that social group.

    It seemed like a fairly standard rant post to me and didn’t seem to rise to the level of comparison with Germany in WWII. I would have needed a lot more behavior over a longer period of time than just this post to consider them to be sociopathic though more to the point it seems to fall more under the purview of a psychologist which I am not. It also seems there were in fact groups they identified with so your focus on one aspect of their libertarian POV as a justification for being classified as a sociopath may have been questionable?

    You are misinterpreting what I wrote. I did not compare the person to Nazi Germany in any way at all. What I was saying there was part of a response to your question of what I meant by sociopathic. The mention was strictly in the context of explaining that an individual isn't sociopathic for simply rejecting a particular set of rules.

    So, there is no line to draw from my earlier comment to what you quoted.

    The early comment had to do with his saying that only he gets to decide what the rules are. That is a typical libertarian line of reasoning. It is at odds with a functioning society in my opinion.

    p.s. I know from past exchanges that you find my point of view quite conformist -- and that isn't really the case. Most people I know consider me a non-conformist who tends to push back quite a bit against conventional wisdom and many accepted norms. I am not arguing that the group is always right.

  • Boys and girls let’s...

  • @Max23 said:
    the only numbers that I trust come out of the EU
    and they are horrible

    do you believe what china or Iran says?
    I dont.

    You can trust numbers from South Korea and Japan. They have been excellent.

  • @Shiro said:

    @Max23 said:
    the only numbers that I trust come out of the EU
    and they are horrible

    do you believe what china or Iran says?
    I dont.

    You can trust numbers from South Korea and Japan. They have been excellent.

    South Korea has done by far the most extensive tests, without doubt.

  • wimwim
    edited March 2020

    Not that it’s important because it doesn’t change at all what everyone needs to do, but I wonder how much influence social environment will end up having on the results. I know that in general Asia has much higher population density coupled with less sense of “personal space” and less societal interaction in general than say most parts of, California, where I live. I’m guessing if the US manages to dodge the bullet in a relative sense, this will be a significant part of the reason. Of course, that may well be more than offset by the slow reaction.

    Please don’t construe my remarks about Asia as racist or stereotyping. I have worked many places for extended periods of time and have observed it. I also count it as a good thing and wish where I live was more like that ... well maybe not right now, but usually.

    Europe is generally more densely populated than much of the US. Italy has a higher proportion of elderly persons.

    Just musing out loud. Like I said, it changes nothing practical about the steps everyone needs to be taking ... which to me seem obvious. I’m not obsessed with the figures because in the end it doesn’t change what will happen or what I need to do.

    The articles about flattening the curve by reacting strongly and early have been helpful in hammering home the point though.

  • @knewspeak said:

    @MonzoPro said:

    @knewspeak said:

    @MonzoPro said:

    @richardyot said:
    Overnight, The number of UK deaths has doubled and the number of confirmed cases has gone up by 30%. We are on exactly the same trajectory as Italy, lagging them by around 10 days.

    It's pretty certain that government policy will change next week once the health service can no longer cope.

    It can’t cope now.

    Talking to a friend today who’s a senior NHS worker in a city hospital. Says they’re treating patients in corridors because of bed shortages. And they don’t have any virus patients in yet.

    She says it will be total carnage in a week or so.

    The Tories have decimated the NHS and care system, and will have the blood of hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths on their hands.

    Also they’re not really bothered about testing anymore, the suggestion is to self isolate for seven days, getting back only if your condition worsens, that’s was advice given to me and exactly the same to a friend in another city miles away. The 1% to 2% mortality rate could be pushed up towards the 15% that will be severe cases because of the sheer number of cases.
    It’s no wonder they need the police, to try to stop the outpouring of grief and anger of this brexit addled deranged egotistical government.

    And yet the demented bastards are still wasting time, money and resources in Brexit talks, and doing a feasability study for a bridge across the Irish sea.

    The UK has turned into a script for a comedy disaster movie, rejected for being too far-fetched.

    They’re so deranged nothing will stop brexit, no amount of carnage, how much more must we turn a blind eye to.

    Brexit was the first wave - infecting the UK with xenophobia. Funnily enough I posted a link to that vid during a Brexit spat on Facebook. A lot of us with kids take a different perspective on this stuff. I don’t want my lad growing up in a mean, hostile environment.

    Just heard a friend in Devon has been told to self-isolate at home for 7 days, no test. No support.

    Sort yourselves out sick Brits, you’re invisible to the government, except when it’s time to pay your taxes or vote to support their populist authoritarian plans.

  • Well, the CDC has done some modeling and this is their latest estimate:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html

    Excerpt:

    "Between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to a projection that encompasses the range of the four scenarios. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.

    And, the calculations based on the C.D.C.’s scenarios suggested, 2.4 million to 21 million people in the United States could require hospitalization, potentially crushing the nation’s medical system, which has only about 925,000 staffed hospital beds. Fewer than a tenth of those are for people who are critically ill."

    Not sure whether I'm reassured or concerned by thinking that the mortality estimates for this "worst case scenario" are actually lower than I expect. They also stated that it doesn't take into account recent measures taken. Schools just got shut down in my state for at least 2 weeks.

    If I also get to vent, it's that Billie Eilish just held a concert in my state capitol to a packed arena just hours after the governor announced a state of emergency and asked for there to not be any large gatherings. She cancelled the rest of her tour before going on and we got to be the last show. Lucky us. I used to kinda like her...

  • From the BBC:

    “ Hundreds of scientists have written to the government urging them to introduce tougher measures to tackle the spread of Covid-19.
    In an open letter, a group of 229 scientists from UK universities say the government's current approach will put the NHS under additional stress and "risk many more lives than necessary".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402

  • @oddSTAR said:
    Well, the CDC has done some modeling and this is their latest estimate:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html

    Excerpt:

    "Between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to a projection that encompasses the range of the four scenarios. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.

    And, the calculations based on the C.D.C.’s scenarios suggested, 2.4 million to 21 million people in the United States could require hospitalization, potentially crushing the nation’s medical system, which has only about 925,000 staffed hospital beds. Fewer than a tenth of those are for people who are critically ill."

    Not sure whether I'm reassured or concerned by thinking that the mortality estimates for this "worst case scenario" are actually lower than I expect. They also stated that it doesn't take into account recent measures taken. Schools just got shut down in my state for at least 2 weeks.

    If I also get to vent, it's that Billie Eilish just held a concert in my state capitol to a packed arena just hours after the governor announced a state of emergency and asked for there to not be any large gatherings. She cancelled the rest of her tour before going on and we got to be the last show. Lucky us. I used to kinda like her...

    That article is kind of funny because "as many as 200,000" doesn't make it clear that 200,000 deaths is the low end of a best-case projection. The way that it is phrased it makes it sound like it is the low end of a worst-case scenario. A week ago the American Hospital Association had 480,000 as their projection of a not-worst-case scenario.

    It also needs to be noted that the CDC is currently in some disarray -- and it is unclear to what degree the Trump administration has been pressuring them to be optimistic in their projections.

    I pray that we end up at 200,000 or fewer but that'll require some serious self-isolation and better education of retailers -- which we aren't seeing happen voluntarily here. I had to go to the drug store to pick up a prescription and people were standing close to each other in line.

    We need retailers to be telling customers to space themselves widely if they are going to be open.

  • A retailer that's serious about protecting the largest number would do what I have seen happening in
    most Asian countries in public places and shared spaces: taking peoples temperatures and alerting anyone
    with a high temperature to step aside not mix with the public. Have you ever picked up a product and read the label and set it back on the shelf? That's a vector for transmission without anyone being close.

    In the most stressed parts of China those with high temperatures and taken to a testing facility and only released after the testing concludes. The testing process can take hours but this is extreme social distancing... enforced.

    I don't think western societies would give up that much personal control to an authority: we are going to see a steeper transmission ramp and a great peak. This is the venting/rant thread, right? Just saying. The solutions are mostly social and not really containment. I'm sure there are a lot of historical reasons Asian countries have different social norms and Europeans just launched ships of armed troops and expanded across the globe to solve the scarcity issues and monetize exploitation.

  • @Lineman Don' let anyone bait you into drawing your sword and start swinging about looking for heads.
    It's not your best look. Just because you feel the right, maybe you shouldn't write in anger. Your wit is dangerous enough without lacing the blade with poison.

  • wimwim
    edited March 2020

    @McD said:
    I don't think western societies would give up that much personal control to an authority: we are going to see a steeper transmission ramp and a great peak. This is the venting/rant thread, right? Just saying.

    I dunno, look what we meekly accepted, and continue to accept, at our airports after just 3,000 dead on 9/11.

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