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I think they mention it, I would have to listen again to take in all the details.
OK I'm listening now - they just said that SARS was eliminated via herd immunity, which is just flat out wrong. SARS, like Ebola, was eliminated by isolating and quarantining known patients.
They're pushing for herd immunity and re-opening without testing or track-trace, so again I have to ask, why the Swedish model and not South Korea?
Did you (or anyone) post this article? https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/04/sweden-coronavirus-response-death-social-distancing.html
Not seen that one before. Interesting take.
Also, just to put the herd immunity argument into perspective:
US population is 320 million. Say 60% catch COVID19, that's 192 million people.
A death rate of 1% is 1,920,000 dead. Almost two million people.
As a number of epidemiologists have pointed out, these two doctors used totally bogus methodology and their conclusions are based on highly fallacious reasoning.
Not to mention, that transmission doesn't stop when 60% of the population have been infected when an epidemic is moving fast. Because the last waves of exposure happen before herd immunity has kicked in and because the distribution isn't homogenous. Up-thread I posted a link to a discussion of this. In a fast-moving epidemic, you may get well over 75% infections. Also, when the epidemic moves fast, the death rate increases because quality of care suffers dramatically.
@Mark B and anyone else who has been convinced by Dr Dan Erickson’s seemingly straightforward presentation of his viewpoint: Today’s rant is for you [but not at you].
My rant today is against physicians who have taken an oath to save human life, but somehow have ended up spouting utter nonsense without doing basic critical analysis of the facts they are presenting.
Dr. Erickson repeatedly (on his original April 22nd interview) makes a nonsense analysis comparing:
1. confirmed death stats as of April 22
2. Calculated as a percentage of a total projected number of infections (as of... unknown date, whenever the virus has run its course).
He does that with California, New York, then the entire US. His conclusion is “millions of infections; small amount of deaths”. Its rubbish.
Comparing those two data points only shows one thing: WHO IS ALREADY DEAD. So for reference, here is the math that Dr. Erickson uses:
The numbers add up, sort of. Yes the math is 0.25%. But the interpretation of this number is what matters here. It can not in any logical way be interpreted to mean 0.25% death rate for covid19. It means 0.25% of the estimated New York infections are ALREADY DEAD.
[and no estimate for the daily 200 still dying in NY, or the next wave of infections later this year, etc. Already the 19,410 deaths has grown to 25,000+ in less than two weeks]
All that to say, I’m pissed off at Dr. Erickson because I have family members who bought his crap. He has a responsibility to stfu if he really can’t comprehend the basic statistical analysis.
Spain yesterday.
Well, I watched the whole YouTube interview here. As suspected, this follow-up interview is just more of the same rhetoric. There is no rebuttal or response to the fact that their methodologies and analysis are completely bogus.
There is obvious merit to carefully planning next steps for re-opening, evaluating the covid situation locally not just nationally, asking when is the time to change our approach, considering secondary health effects of a lockdown, factoring in health effects of an economic crisis, etc.
But the approach to all those things needs to be done while armed with the best statistical analysis of the situation and these doctors make it look like they don’t actually care about the epidemiology.
Its really unfortunate, actually. This latest YouTube interview makes it look like they are not manipulating facts (for some undisclosed personal or political benefit) but they truly just misinterpret the facts and don’t realize how wrong they are.
Here is an explanation by an epidemiologist of the logical errors made by Dr. Erickson and co.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1254481543759683584.html
Yes, good summary of the one point I was trying to make.
Here’s another article I found to be a very good explanation
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/
TL;DR - there is no possible way to objectively compare flu season and Covid and conclude that they are similar in death rates or disease burden. Confirmed flu deaths are usually around 4,000 to 8,000 each year. That is the number to compare against covid’s 68,285 confirmed deaths and counting...
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I got a vividly different impression, When President Donald 'devils in the details' Trump first announced his bid for the presidency he almost literally blew a bull horn on his ride down the elevator to let all the nazis know their savior had arrived and sought their support.... and lo and behold it did work, he was the only one on the republican ticket that used overt racism, birtherism towards Obama and ted cruz (that's right even to his own side), and bigotry and his supporters rewarded him by quickly dispatching all of the other 16 or 17 candidates on the right and providing him with a nice fat comfy seat pillow in the Oval Office and a nice sofa for Kelly Anne Conway to put up her feet on... imo not only were the optics a vote winner but the optics were vital.
I wasn't even kidding, it has always been this way at least over here and I've seen it happen, someone help someone being jumped because of their skin color and the perpetrators let the original target go and give all of their attention to the so called race trader. When you stand up for the rights of others you gotta watch your back
True story: it didn't occur to me till I was well into adulthood that the racist and anti-semitic things I heard kids say in the playground was parroting of things they heard in their houses - that these were things their parents were saying when outsiders didn't hear them. It made me realize that some of those lovely, polite grown ups on the block I grew up on were out-and-out racists who simply knew to be polite and gracious in public.
as @WillieNegus said "This place (Audiobus) is an example of what’s possible when people gather around shared passion but can also hop off topic to Discuss, disgust, disagree, coexist, etc.Lol it’s the spirit of the app that inspired the forum...making things connect."
i ♥ this about this forum
"our ability to communicate"
for me this feels like a 'safe space'
(strange isn't it how this phrase was weaponised)
i have found / continue to find such joy through ipad music - audio bus and everyone here has helped in that
it's a space i allow my 'inner child' to express himself - i think deep down most of us have an angry and self-ish inner child, raised by self-ish and angry parents, with their own etc
its a space i try to communicate ideas/thoughts through words - with the spectre of censorship looming in our society - expressing ideas/thoughts feels necessary
i remember the anger i once saw in someone when confronted with the idea of 'physical immortality' - now this idea didn't matter, but the anger!
i ♥ also the memes, music, and other magic that keep this place Live
thanks audiobus ♥ thanks everyone
the new word i was taught yesterday was 'clou'
today i play with 'drone'
Some seasons are mild, some are severe and some are exceptional. We are dealing with Nature here, and it is kind of unpredictable.
Still less deaths than the Hong Kong flu in 1968 which killed an estimated 100,000 in the US. (Population in 1968 = 200.7 million, 2020 = 331 million).
Really? This is the kind of thinking people use to discuss climate change.
There's a strong case using the available data. But having an open mind... that's always the
root cause of these "debates" over 2 realities.
Your position is strongly rooted in economic consequences and there's a lot to debate there. It's a good area to think about but like most extremely complex situations it's best to seek experts and follow their debate closely and attempt to be well versed laymen on the matter.
Everyone wants to return to normal but I hope you can see normal Sweden looks a lot like normal Minnesota (Fargo, ya?).
As for calculations and predictions. Let see how the Imperial College model applied to Sweden.
In early April around the peak of the academic community’s backlash against the Swedish government’s strategy, a group of researchers at Uppsala University attempted to do just that. They released an epidemiological model for Sweden that adapted the ICL COVID-19 model from Ferguson and his colleagues, and attempted to project the effects of Sweden’s unique response on both hospital capacity and total fatalities.
The Uppsala team’s presentation appears to closely follow the ICL approach. They presented a projection for an “unmitigated” response (also known as the “do nothing” scenario in the ICL paper), then modeled the predicted effects of a variety of policy interventions. These included staying the course on the government’s alternative approach of remaining open with milder social distancing guidelines, as well as implementing varying degrees of a lockdown.
The model stressed its own urgency as well. Sweden would have to adopt a lockdown policy similar to the rest of Europe immediately if it wished to avert catastrophe. As the authors explained, under “conservative” estimates using their model “the current Swedish public-health strategy will result in a peak intensive-care load in May that exceeds pre-pandemic capacity by over 40-fold, with a median mortality of 96,000 (95% CI 52,000 to 183,000)” being realized by the end of June.
Their proposed mitigation scenarios, which followed lockdown strategies similar to those recommended in the ICL paper and adopted elsewhere in Europe, were “predicted to reduce mortality by approximately three-fold” while also averting a catastrophic failure of the Swedish healthcare system.
The authors of the paper expressed sincere concerns for limiting the damage done by a genuinely horrendous disease, and they released their study in the hope that it would better inform the policy response. Its predictions have already failed to play out though – and badly failed at that.
The Swedish model laid out its predicted death and hospitalization rates for competing policy scenarios in a series of graphs. According to their projections (shown below in blue), the current Swedish government’s response – if permitted to continue – would pass 40,000 deaths shortly after May 1, 2020 and continue to rise to almost 100,000 deaths by June.
https://www.aier.org/article/imperial-college-model-applied-to-sweden-yields-preposterous-results/
In the U.S., there are already approximately 100,000 excess deaths since mid-February which is how flu deaths are calculated and the epidemic has not started to die out here. It is my understanding that the 100,000 deaths attributed to the HK Flu covers an 18 month period. Even with lockdowns, we are close to 100,00 deaths if you use similar attribution methods as are used for the flu, in a period of a few months.
Without the lockdowns, in the U.S. (given the late start responding to the pandemic) the number of deaths would be many times what we have seen. There is no credible case that can be made that the lockdown hasn’t saved an enormous number of lives in places like California. Unfortunately, we started late and there are too many infections for our testing and tracking to succeed in isolating the sources of infection yet. So, we have not had the sort of success that New Zealand, for example has had.
Re SwedenSweden’s per capita death rate is far higher than in the neighboring countries. No amount of hand-waving changes that. It seems all your comparisons are to countries that started lockdowns late but not the neighboring and similar countries like Denmark and Norway that have far fewer deaths per capita than Sweden.
As far as the earth, moon & all living species are concerned... 🌍 🌓 🦍 🦅 🐍 🐟
Humans: Are The Real Virus 🦠 👦🏻 👨🏼 👩🏻 👧🏼 🦠
There is no credible case that can be made that the lockdown hasn’t saved an enormous number of lives in places like California.
This phenomenological study assesses the impacts of full lockdown strategies applied in Italy, France, Spain and United Kingdom, on the slowdown of the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak. Comparing the trajectory of the epidemic before and after the lockdown, we find no evidence of any discontinuity in the growth rate, doubling time, and reproduction number trends. Extrapolating pre-lockdown growth rate trends, we provide estimates of the death toll in the absence of any lockdown policies, and show that these strategies might not have saved any life in western Europe. We also show that neighboring countries applying less restrictive social distancing measures (as opposed to police-enforced home containment) experience a very similar time evolution of the epidemic.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20078717v1
All they have done is delayed what is happening in Sweden. How do we get out of it. Here's one way (listen from 29 minutes into this video)
There’s also currently no conclusive and repeatable scientific evidence that “herd immunity” is even possible. Or that a vaccine can be developed or have an impact.
It’s hypothesized. But this is a novel corona virus. Behaving like anything is normal or predictable is a recipe for massive numbers of lives lost.
Many more people will die. Could be you. Could be me. Could be both of us and all our families and friends.
The big hope is treatment, and never overwhelming the hospital system. Hell, if that system doesn’t get relief, the people will start breaking.
This new coronavirus has a 79 percent genetic similarity to the SARS virus. A study found that patients may have up to 2 years immunity to that one.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1440-1843.2006.00783.x