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@kobamoto yeah, i hear you
it just always struck me as a kind of having a 'not from here' vibe
but i wholely agree Life is Life
)
live let Live
though do words work like magic, hyponizing ?
i've been on the planet long enough to watch the cycle play out
up and down up and down
"open up the disney" lol
) it's how i felt about the boy racers on the road - go play where you don't bother others 
)
but they poured sand on skate parks, so our happineness doesn't seem to be our mis-leaders goal - di-versusity replaced the equality in the language i was growing to know - once more turning the soil
@ElectroHead ♥ with the Totnes /Brixton pound etc, they too were still being tied to the bankers money, but they kept the money local - this sounds like ♥ moves in the right direction ♥ wins all round
@MonzoPro my strawberries are spreading like weeds, but thistles are poking up, not yet at a height to cause issues
my ocd thing is to look at them and ponder
) let the Life be
the last time i took to the garden with a 'to-do!' attitude, i ended up unconsciously destroying Toad hall - the looks they gave!
all seems well now though, they appear happy in their new home
@McD " our minds are orgonized" our beings full of inner-formation
i can't aeffect the bills and whistles in you, all i can attempt is the clearest, cleanest, expression of my self i'm able
@WillieNegus 'taking Guns' ... i too think that would only heighten tensions, and agree that it appears this appears to me appears to be a story playing out, planned
i'm pondering my role in this ... the depth of our thoughts, the power in them?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hundredth_monkey_effect
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rupert_Sheldrake
@Mark B
)
i always wonder what stories like this were meant to achieve
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52205655
it was also strange (to me at least) that not 1 but 2 health ministers were so ...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52194407
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52181221
Fucking hell, talk about twisting statistics to fit an agenda. One minute it's only people with underlying conditions who are dying, the next it's fine that healthy doctors and nurses are dying by the dozen because it's a representative sample of the overall population.
Blinded by ideology.
Yup total contraryism, ‘if it contradicts what is being reported, and fits my world view, or let’s me behave just how I want to, then anything that has any internal logic will do’
I’m done with being polite to this sort of thing, the last few years have been bad enough but when it’s people choking to death there’s nothing good or decent about turn the other cheek and letting people hold opposing ‘opinions’ in spite of glaring facts.
I’m not sure the government strategy changed that much during lockdown, looks like they were still trying to get the disease to spread through the population by stealth. What stands out is specialists and suppliers in the field approaching the government, offering their services then hearing nothing back.
Read about a company which did the antibody test, supplying germany and south korea with tests, offered some of their capacity to the government, never got a reply, another which did the swab test, supplies many countries, same thing. Birmingham university offered their micro virology department to process the results heard nothing back, main public testing center in a theme park car park, down kent, was being run by an accountancy firm and staffed by the army.
Was testing for a lot of nhs staff from london as a lot of them couldn’t get tests and kept botching and losing the results, nhs trust down there was pressuring the government to allow it to run the facility. We avoided the scenes in italy and spain, due to offloading a lot of elderly patients into care homes and letting them die there instead of in hospital, one home in inner london, lost around 50% of residents in a matter of weeks. Some carehomes started refusing to take patients from hospitals, as they weren’t being tested and many were coming in already infected. But, you know, be kind, were in this together, now is not the time and don’t even get me started on the clusterfuck ppe scandal🤬
I largely disagree. Sure, the US is a big market for many countries. OTOH, what do European countries, for example, import from the US? Apple devices made in China, weapons, Hollywood crap, and, and, well that's pretty much it. Not essential commodities by any means.
If the US were to split up in an orderly manner and the economy remained more or less intact, I reckon it could be positive for the rest of the world: the globalists / monopolists behind the curtain in the US would no longer have the US military to unleash chaos around the world in order to protect and enlarge their interests. And that is the policy - create chaos to hamper Eurasian economic integration - The ouster of Ghaddafi in Libya, the "civil" war in Syria and the coup in Ukraine are prime examples.
Europe does not need US "protection" - Russia is not the Soviet Union. USSR sought to spread an ideology globally, Russia doesn't have any such ideology. Russia won't invade Poland to force Poland to adopt Russian Orthodoxy!
The current US-led global economic structure cannot survive, it's been on life support since 2008 since when the only area of growth has been debt. And the debt is unpayable.
I'm not anti-American: There's so much to like about the US - but the federal government on multiple levels is corrupt beyond redemption; it serves the corporations which don't care about the interests of the US people, only about their global corporate empires. This goes far, far deeper than Trump.
2nd May. Nobel prize winning scientist Prof Michael Levitt: lockdown a “huge mistake”
Thanks for the friendly and candid reply ;-)
@WillieNegus
I'd like to hear your counterpoints, this thread is way beyond pandemic for quite some time...
I see the cases in Belarus are on a steep increase. They did nothing. Their president thinks it does not exist.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/belarus/
Because science always depends on one single point of view without replication or peer review, amirite? Let me put it another way: who the f85k cares what this one guy says? I sure as hell don't - certainly not without a lot of supporting evidence and scientific peers.
There are several tools in the metaphorical toolbox for handling a pandemic. Countries that open that toolbox very quickly can make use of tools that countries that are (willfully) ignorant cannot effectively use. The effectiveness of those tools depend a lot on the resources put behind them, the people using them, and the rest of the people in that countries willingness to support their use.
You can see the result of many of the decisions on which tools to use and when playing out in real time, with mistakes or mistaken gambles resulting in the loss of peoples' lives.
I watched it. His argument is that we should go for herd immunity, and I believe he is basing that on the theory that the virus is so infectious that a much larger percentage of the population is already infected than the numbers show.
First of all, the high rate of hidden (asymptomatic) infection is definitely a possibility, and one that has been put forward by many different people - but it's we simply don't know at this point in time, so until we know more we have to be cautious.
But the problem with aiming for herd immunity is the risk of the health service being overwhelmed. This is not theoretical, because it's actually happened in Wuhan, Lombardy, and New York. The facts on the ground are one of the reasons the UK government changed their policy. London hospitals are not overwhelmed (luckily) but without lockdown it's very likely that they would have been.
Also, he is not advocating doing nothing: he specifically mentions following the Chinese example of widespread temperature taking, wearing masks, and testing. And presumably if you're going to follow the Chinese model that also means quarantine for the infected, possibly away from their families.
He also makes some questionable statements, for example asserting that children can't infect adults, which as far as I know is completely unproven, and highly implausible.
So on the whole the video is more nuanced than the headline implies, but it is speculative. In the face of uncertainty, and especially asymmetric risk, I believe you have to be cautious. Others obviously disagree.
The other unknown is whether there are any long-term issues for people recovering from the virus. There's plenty of anecdotal evidence of things such as kidney and heart damage, so again until we know more it would be wise to be cautious.
Finally I personally think that nit-picking against the models is just a waste of time. Models are mathematical guesswork, nothing more, and arguing over them is pointless. I would always look to real-world evidence, which is why I always say look at the places where the virus has really taken hold, and take that as a harbinger of what can happen if action is not taken. You can argue against the models all day long, it's harder to deny the death toll in Lombardy.
re the herd immunity thing: the majority of epidemiologists believe that going for herd immunity will be disastrous. In NYC, I think the estimate is that about 25% of people have been exposed. So, if you triple the number of infections, you are likely to get 3 times as many dead....probably more because without lockdowns, those infections will overwhelm the healthcare system and lower quality of care considerably.
Carl Bergstrom and Natalie Dean have been talking about this quite a lot and explaining a lot about herd immunity that isn’t obvious...such as that the virus doesn’t die out as soon as you arrive at 60% or 70% infected. There is something called overshoot which is like momentum in fast-spreading epidemics.
It is worth looking up what they have written.
Re: Michael Levitt. Read what he was saying in March about the trajectory of the pandemic. He said that it was past the halfway point and rapidly dying down. His take was far enough off that what he has to say now should be listened to with that in mind. He is someone speculating in an area with which he does not expertise . Non-experts sometimes have great insight. His read on the situation in March demonstrates that this is not one of those cases.
He isn’t an epidemiologist.
He is being sought out by people with anti-lockdown points of view because he is anti-lockdown and won a Nobel prize in an unrelated field even though his past prediction was quite wrong.
Temporary herd immunity is the most hopeful outcome (via vaccine) if possible, this will be most likely an ongoing prospect, as Covid is a fairly fast mutating virus, probably leading to new vaccines needed over time, for the emerging strains.
From what I have read, COVID is not particularly fast-mutating.
Here's how it's played out in the Czech Rep - I've hardly seen mention in UK and US media:
March 10th - gatherings of over 100 people banned.
March 13th - State of Emergency declared - all non-essential shops closed and freedom of movement restricted to essential trips.
March 14th - Borders closed - only returning citizens and permanent residents allowed in and obliged to isolate for 14 days
March 18th - Wearing of face masks in all public places made compulsory. There were not enough masks available to start but a national sewing campaign delivered in a matter of days.
Trips to nature were at no point restricted (a lot of forest here - for Europe that is - almost all of which is accessible to the public).
The overall numbers as of today: 7750 infections, 245 deaths and 3346 confirmed recoveries.
From the outset pubs and restaurants were allowed to sell take-out food and beer from the entrance of establishments.
Today the local farmers' market reopened; all shops including hair dressers allowed to open on Monday. Opening of pubs and restaurants provisionally planned for June 1.
I'm no epidemiologist, but this indicates that closing the borders and compulsory wearing of masks really has worked.
@WillieNegus : i think as long as people don't go attacking each other with name-calling, Michael will allow off-topic threads to go on. So far, people have been pretty good about that -- and when name-calling seemed like it was going to break out, there were even some apologies. It probably helped that a few early flamethrowers have left the community.
Yep, this ^
I'm still curious to hear your opinion... drop it here or dm... no need to summarise
@richardyot Admire your patience and persistence....
You can argue it but you will have to resort to anecdotal evidence.
But it appears many countries will now try your approach and release the masses.
But armed with knowledge most will not go hang in the pub but just keep drinking at home and call friends or interact on Internet Forums.
This is what’s been preoccupying me a bit lately, and I can’t find enough info on it.
If most children don’t exhibit symptoms, is that the same as saying they’re mostly asymptomatic, assuming a high proportion catch it?
Now, this is where I’m not coming up with the research – if a normal person, not a child, catches it and remains fully asymptomatic, do they ever end up in a shedding stage, because if there’s no symptomatic period there’s likely also no incubation period. There’ll be nothing to cough out, no phlegm or sputum, and therefore hardly any significant level of viral transmission. Apply that to a child, and it might (or might not) be the case that children are not going to ‘break out’ in it, and therefore not a major viral transmission risk between each other or back to adults. A bit like cats, really.
As I say, I’m not finding the findings.
>
I think the main problem that we have in this country is that there is nothing wrong with not being from here, but people and politicians like the president and his supporters who even have the audacity to refer to people born here as not real Americans, just because they don't look like them, or wear a tan suit, or drink lattes, or don't drive a truck etc.. lol shows exactly who and what we are. Imho we need to start teaching equality to kids in nursery school all the way through to college on a national scale because this trying to return to our roots or at least to the 50s is getting ridiculous. We live in a nation where people keep killing black people trying to start a race war and black people keep going to court, standing up and telling these terrorist that they love them, forgive them and pray for them...... its utterly bizarre .
we need to start teaching kids that there is no equivalency between racism and non-racism and that hating is a fucked up thing to do, albeit it's your right so keep the disease in your house and enforce keeping it away from others. I think if you can get your kids taken away for teaching them to smoke crack that you should get them taken away for being taught to go kill other people who don't have the same shade of pigmentation that you do, what is abuse if not training children to hate and harm others.
it's an uphill battle though for sure, it's 2020 and we are living in a nation where it's leader the president of the United States is offended by the very notion of equality.
Interesting food for thought. 🤔
If I have had it, which I think I did, my son had pretty much the same symptoms as I developed about 3 days later, sore throat, cough, lethargic for 2 days, but no high temperature. Several cases had developed at his school 2 weeks prior to the school closure for lockdown.
It's completely unknown AFAIK. I believe the current thinking is that asymptomatic people can still spread the virus, which is one reason why it spreads so fast, but in truth we just don't know enough about it yet.
The theory that the virus is already so widespread that we are close to herd immunity relies on asymptomatic carriers being contagious. We have no idea though.
The first thing I got was an incredibly dry sore throat, then I was in bed for 2 days, resting almost face down, as this lessened the pain in my lungs, walking was uncomfortably during these 2 days, on the third day I could walk around but felt drained for about another 3 days, gradually regaining strength. Then spent another 9 days in isolation, to emerge to a world in lockdown and devoid of toilet tissues.
It is certain that asymptomatic adults can transmit the virus. That has been shown quite conclusively -- and also that for those that become symptomatic there maximum transmissibility includes a period of a day or two before symptoms appear.
How infectious kids are is something about which there seem to be questions. There is some anecdotal evidence that suggests that they might not be as infectious as adults -- but an article I read yesterday by an epidemiologist said that there really isn't a strong basis to say one way or another at this point.