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OT: Vent About Global Pandemic Management *HERE*

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Comments

  • @richardyot said:
    It's unlikely that either Mark or any of us are going to change their mind

    I find it to be like the Anti-vaxer BS where a little doubt goes a long way towards allowing
    a fringe group to impact many innocent people that are tuned out. That's why I tend to stomp on these agenda driven "balance" the story treads like "Sweden did it right". It's bad science and science doesn't have enough friends these days.

    So... I'm sure you can see the flaws and like the range of views but I prefer to balance each post with some balance. Mark seems tireless to spread his vision but vigilance for truth is also worth protecting.

    This is a little tide pool on the ocean of messaging so maybe it's wise for me to just pass for a few weeks and cope with my frustrations with the world.

  • @McD said:

    @richardyot said:
    It's unlikely that either Mark or any of us are going to change their mind

    I find it to be like the Anti-vaxer BS where a little doubt goes a long way towards allowing
    a fringe group to impact many innocent people that are tuned out. That's why I tend to stomp on these agenda driven "balance" the story treads like "Sweden did it right". It's bad science and science doesn't have enough friends these days.

    So... I'm sure you can see the flaws and like the range of views but I prefer to balance each post with some balance. Mark seems tireless to spread his vision but vigilance for truth is also worth protecting.

    This is a little tide pool on the ocean of messaging so maybe it's wise for me to just pass for a few weeks and cope with my frustrations with the world.

    Right, but you can challenge the arguments you don't agree with, just play the ball not the man.

  • @Mark B interesting video from that German virologist.
    Oddly it seems like he is basing his argument on a single town and study of 405 households and 919 individuals. I’m sure it is a valuable study, but isn’t that too small of a population to be a basis for any conclusions or to be in any way representative of what is going on globally?

    To me, it is reckless to listen to mainstream media without appropriate critique, but it is just as irresponsible to believe that just because someone is independent means they are any more right. These “independent studies” that I’m seeing are not convincing me at all, mainly because they reach conclusions by using sloppy data analysis. It is not helping anyone.

  • @richardyot said:

    @McD said:

    @richardyot said:

    >

    Right, but you can challenge the arguments you don't agree with, just play the ball not the man.

    I love that. Now it's also true that I miss the footie something rotten, but still, nicely played :)

  • @Hmtx said:
    @Mark B interesting video from that German virologist.
    Oddly it seems like he is basing his argument on a single town and study of 405 households and 919 individuals. I’m sure it is a valuable study, but isn’t that too small of a population to be a basis for any conclusions or to be in any way representative of what is going on globally?

    To me, it is reckless to listen to mainstream media without appropriate critique, but it is just as irresponsible to believe that just because someone is independent means they are any more right. These “independent studies” that I’m seeing are not convincing me at all, mainly because they reach conclusions by using sloppy data analysis. It is not helping anyone.

    exactly, but we live in a moment in time when people care about where information comes from more than whether it is factual or not.. or based on solid ground... we live in a time where people will actually believe a fact but still not accept it based on who enlightened them to that fact.

  • Neil Ferguson and Imperial College are heavily funded by the B&M Gates Foundation. Make what you will of that fact, but I think it's clear they have a (not so hidden) agenda. Increasing numbers of epidemiologists are expressing scepticism that an effective vaccine will be found, I'm not an anti-vaxer - my son had all the basic jabs - but I'm not letting any Covid, or any flu jab from Gates' accomplices at Gilead, Novartis and the other big pharma firms, into my body.

  • @Hmtx said:
    @Mark B interesting video from that German virologist.
    Oddly it seems like he is basing his argument on a single town and study of 405 households and 919 individuals. I’m sure it is a valuable study, but isn’t that too small of a population to be a basis for any conclusions or to be in any way representative of what is going on globally?

    To me, it is reckless to listen to mainstream media without appropriate critique, but it is just as irresponsible to believe that just because someone is independent means they are any more right. These “independent studies” that I’m seeing are not convincing me at all, mainly because they reach conclusions by using sloppy data analysis. It is not helping anyone.

    Sure, but this is what we have at the moment and all these small study’s are all finding that more people have contracted the virus than thought which points to a lower fatality rate than the official figure. The UK government are reported to be about to roll out an antibody test with 99.8% accuracy within a few weeks so that will be interesting.

  • @Mark B said:
    More data confirming recent independent studies.

    German virologist: Covid-19 is less deadly than we thought

    First, ALL epidemiologists say that the fatality rate is lower than initially estimated. However, most seem to think that means somewhere in the range of 0.5% to 1.0% -- although that also totally depends on the population -- so higher in less healthy populations and at the low end of that range in healthy populations with excellent healthcare.

    But, in the video you posted, the guy says on the order of 0.024%

    We KNOW that (at least in New York City) that the absolute lower bound is something like 10 times higher than that and likely quite a bit higher.

    How do we know that?

    There are 19,415 confirmed COVID-19 deaths. The population is 8.4 million. That is 0.23%.

    So, if 100% of NYC inhabitants have been infected that gives you an IFR of 0.23%.

    We know that 100% of NYC inhabitants have not been infected.

    The IFR can't possibly be 1/10th of 0.23%.

  • @mister_rz there’s a novel in there somewhere ;-)

    @mister_rz said:

    @topaz said:
    U.k / u.s.a

    Majority vote by people who know nothing about centre ground politics, run by people that
    Only know right wing politics.

    Spain, no idea. But uk second to USA death rates speak loud enough to say conservatives are @#£&;*.

    My god, we’re well into the twiglet zone, like we’re kids in the backseat of a car and dads not only drunk behind the wheel, but he’s also got a gun, turning around saying ‘don’t worry children I’ve got a plan’, ‘what’s the gun for dad’! ‘that’s for protection, just incase anyone tries to grab the wheel’😳😳

    Turns at the sign that says, white cliffs of dover 5 miles, ‘dad why are we heading towards the cliffs’, ‘don’t be silly children, I’m following the science, the science of dominic cummings’, takes another big gulp of whiskey. My anxiety levels are through the roof, dodgy mofo’s don’t even want to share their plan with other, outside of sage scientists and specialists, for a bit of sweet relief peer review.

    Who would of thought all these fake populists, that when they need to step up with all that alpha manliness they see as hereditary, to protect the people they claim to love, so so much, would fare so poorly, almost like they don’t give a shit. Brazil looks like its heading for a tragedy more extreme then the u.s and mister big balls has revealed himself to be a piglet, which I’m sure is very reassuring at this moment.

  • edited May 2020

    @Mark B said:

    Sure, but this is what we have at the moment and all these small study’s are all finding that more people have contracted the virus than thought which points to a lower fatality rate than the official figure. The UK government are reported to be about to roll out an antibody test with 99.8% accuracy within a few weeks so that will be interesting.

    Virologists advising the government where I live are saying that the density of exposure is decisive. The larger the dose, the greater the chance of developing illness - therefore compulsory wearing of masks in public areas since March 14. The overall death toll of 254 (total population 10.5 million), certainly indicates they're correct.

  • Highest death rate in Europe and people are still sticking to Boris like epoxy resin.

  • And, again, they also don't even know wtf the virus actually does to people that don't die right away/haven't died yet. Two years from now, everyone that caught it in 2020 could fall over and die. Saying the fatality rate is lower than expected is misleading, unless maybe very carefully and specifically stated about "based only on what little we know so far, the current fatality rate is lower than expected, however, there's still so much we don't know, that no one should be putting too much weight on that statement."

  • @Mark B said:

    @Hmtx said:
    @Mark B interesting video from that German virologist.
    Oddly it seems like he is basing his argument on a single town and study of 405 households and 919 individuals. I’m sure it is a valuable study, but isn’t that too small of a population to be a basis for any conclusions or to be in any way representative of what is going on globally?

    To me, it is reckless to listen to mainstream media without appropriate critique, but it is just as irresponsible to believe that just because someone is independent means they are any more right. These “independent studies” that I’m seeing are not convincing me at all, mainly because they reach conclusions by using sloppy data analysis. It is not helping anyone.

    Sure, but this is what we have at the moment and all these small study’s are all finding that more people have contracted the virus than thought which points to a lower fatality rate than the official figure. The UK government are reported to be about to roll out an antibody test with 99.8% accuracy within a few weeks so that will be interesting.

    I think everyone in science agrees on the broad stokes of:

    • the IFR (infection fatality rate) is lower than it appeared at first (though most agree that when combined with its transmissibility it is still an unacceptably high number to let it run rampant through populations)
    • the virus is more transmissible than originally thought (because it is transmissible before any symptoms appear)
    • a large (but still unknown) number of people never develop symptoms but still transmit it

    I hear a lot of people mistakenly confound "the mortality rate is lower than thought" with "the mortality rate is low enough as to be of no more concern than the flu".

    The first statement is simply true. The second statement is something with which the vast majority of epidemiologists agree.

    ALSO worth noting, lay people (including non-biostatistician doctors) have often made elevated claims of fatality rate than were higher than most epidemiologists thought was true. Even in February when the case fatality rate (which is the number of people that die per reported case) was on the order of 4%, most epidemiologists that it likely that the fatality rate was probably on the order of somewhere between 0.5% and 2% and were saying over and over "we don't have enough data to really know; you can't really get clear numbers till the epidemic has passed".

    Even today, we are only starting to get an idea of the seroprevalence and there is a lot of disagreement among the experts as to which numbers to believe. All of them agree that it is far more prevalent than recorded tests show (because so many people remain asymptomatic and we test so little of the population. Because of the quality of the tests, there is a lot of disagreement about how to interpret what we know. The ranges of estimates are everything from there being 10 to 20 times more actual than recorded cases (there seems to be a lot of people that feel like that is where things are) to people that say it is 50 to 100 times higher. It should be noted that very briefly there was a paper up in Sweden saying that there were 99 cases for every positive test. It got a lot of play during the few brief hours that it was up -- the non-peer-reviewed study ended up being taken down since people pointed out that by the paper's math, more people in Stockholm were infected than live in Stockholm.

    All this is just to say, one shouldn't confuse "the death rate is lower than we thought" with "the death rate is nothing to be worried about.

  • We all need to have a dialogue, across the country. The problem arises when what used to be understood- things like facts, evidence, the TRUTH-are no longer there to frame debate in the first place. Then there’s
    the high horse, pious, holier than thou bullshit I see on social media, etc. These are direct quotes from Tweets on my timeline:

    “Mainstream Media is the problem you know!”
    “You want us to starve?!”
    “MY BODY my choice!” (Oh the absolute irony...)
    “I’ll die on my feet before I cower on my knees to some flu!”

    All that is written when somewhere in New York dead bodies are still being stored in U-Haul’s because there’s no more space at cemeteries, the number of new cases is growing by almost 2 to 4% daily and we’ve had over 1000 deaths from Covid19 EVERY day for over a month.

  • @vitocorleone123 said:
    And, again, they also don't even know wtf the virus actually does to people that don't die right away/haven't died yet. Two years from now, everyone that caught it in 2020 could fall over and die.

    I'm no virologist, but if this is a natural Covid virus (flues and the common cold are also Covid viruses) that sounds pretty much impossible. But if it's been tampered with in a lab - the devil knows.

  • First murder in Michigan by a guy who thought his daughter and wife were being “disrespected“ by a security guard who insisted they wear masks into a Dollar type store. Hubby came back and shot the father of nine to death.

    Now he and his son are on the run. Good conflict resolution. Lots of smarts goin on out there.

  • McDMcD
    edited May 2020

    PSA: Remember this thread is intended to vent about public management of the crisis.

    (We all need a forum for our agendas... Guilty here.)

    But how about some rage. There's also a science thread for a more rational discussion of news, studies and proposed remedies.

    We need some catharsis... or am I the only one in torment from this insanity of misguided governance.

    Thankfully the fired Vaccine researcher within our "Health and Human Services" (HHS) department is pushing back on his political termination for putting science above politics. Too many have not disclosed the workings behind the scenes to tilt the table of the government into a wing of the re-election committee.

  • @ElectroHead said:
    Neil Ferguson and Imperial College are heavily funded by the B&M Gates Foundation. Make what you will of that fact, but I think it's clear they have a (not so hidden) agenda. Increasing numbers of epidemiologists are expressing scepticism that an effective vaccine will be found, I'm not an anti-vaxer - my son had all the basic jabs - but I'm not letting any Covid, or any flu jab from Gates' accomplices at Gilead, Novartis and the other big pharma firms, into my body.

    Trumps gud olde bleach trip will get ya to a happy place. Highly recommended by the Carrot Insanely Contrary. :p

  • here we go again

  • @ElectroHead said:

    @vitocorleone123 said:
    And, again, they also don't even know wtf the virus actually does to people that don't die right away/haven't died yet. Two years from now, everyone that caught it in 2020 could fall over and die.

    I'm no virologist, but if this is a natural Covid virus (flues and the common cold are also Covid viruses) that sounds pretty much impossible. But if it's been tampered with in a lab - the devil knows.

    PSA: It sounds 99%+ likely to NOT be from a lab.

    Yes, I was exaggerating for effect, but it’s not impossible to rule out at this point, either. It’s called “novel” coronavirus for a reason. And since we don’t yet actually fully know what we’re dealing with, there’s clearly a whole lotta willfully ignorant or just plain dumb people out there... strangely they seem to be Trump supporters so far. Hmm.

    Now, anti-vaxxers is mostly a left wing (and libertarian) special kind of crazy. But we’re not there yet for the pandemic. Have a whole lot of stupid to go before we get to that stupid.

  • So, in a number of states, employees are being forced to go back to work...with inadequate testing and tracing services available and no guarantee that the environments they will work in are safe. Unemployment benefits end whenever their companies choose to reopen and companies have no liability for providing safe working environments.

    We can do so much better.

  • @ElectroHead said:

    @vitocorleone123 said:
    And, again, they also don't even know wtf the virus actually does to people that don't die right away/haven't died yet. Two years from now, everyone that caught it in 2020 could fall over and die.

    I'm no virologist, but if this is a natural Covid virus (flues and the common cold are also Covid viruses) that sounds pretty much impossible. But if it's been tampered with in a lab - the devil knows.

    This is entirely false. It’s meaningless to say this a ‘COVID’ virus, the virus is a coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2, the disease it causes in humans is called COVID-19. Flu is nothing to do with any of the coronaviruses which are positive-sense single-stranded enveloped RNA viruses. Flu viruses, or Influenza-A or Influenza-B viruses, are entirely different, they’re all negative-sense, single-stranded, segmented RNA viruses. Misinformation can be very harmful at times like this, keep everything factual, if in doubt, say nothing.

    Unless it involves aliens. They’re always good for a laugh.

  • @u0421793 said:

    @ElectroHead said:

    @vitocorleone123 said:
    And, again, they also don't even know wtf the virus actually does to people that don't die right away/haven't died yet. Two years from now, everyone that caught it in 2020 could fall over and die.

    I'm no virologist, but if this is a natural Covid virus (flues and the common cold are also Covid viruses) that sounds pretty much impossible. But if it's been tampered with in a lab - the devil knows.

    This is entirely false. It’s meaningless to say this a ‘COVID’ virus, the virus is a coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2, the disease it causes in humans is called COVID-19. Flu is nothing to do with any of the coronaviruses which are positive-sense single-stranded enveloped RNA viruses. Flu viruses, or Influenza-A or Influenza-B viruses, are entirely different, they’re all negative-sense, single-stranded, segmented RNA viruses. Misinformation can be very harmful at times like this, keep everything factual, if in doubt, say nothing.

    Unless it involves aliens. They’re always good for a laugh.

    No such thing as aliens, just our planet and a big, big, big..... universe completely devoid of life, except for our planet, of course. :D

  • edited May 2020

    @knewspeak said:

    @ElectroHead said:
    Neil Ferguson and Imperial College are heavily funded by the B&M Gates Foundation. Make what you will of that fact, but I think it's clear they have a (not so hidden) agenda. Increasing numbers of epidemiologists are expressing scepticism that an effective vaccine will be found, I'm not an anti-vaxer - my son had all the basic jabs - but I'm not letting any Covid, or any flu jab from Gates' accomplices at Gilead, Novartis and the other big pharma firms, into my body.

    Trumps gud olde bleach trip will get ya to a happy place. Highly recommended by the Carrot Insanely Contrary. :p

    In other words, if you don't trust Gates, WHO and big pharma, you're a Trump supporter.

  • edited May 2020

    @u0421793 said:

    This is entirely false. It’s meaningless to say this a ‘COVID’ virus, the virus is a coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2, the disease it causes in humans is called COVID-19. Flu is nothing to do with any of the coronaviruses which are positive-sense single-stranded enveloped RNA viruses. Flu viruses, or Influenza-A or Influenza-B viruses, are entirely different, they’re all negative-sense, single-stranded, segmented RNA viruses. Misinformation can be very harmful at times like this, keep everything factual, if in doubt, say nothing.

    From Wikipedia:

    "Coronaviruses cause different coronavirus diseases including severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS),[5] and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).[6] Some strains of coronaviruses can also cause the common cold.[7][8][9][10]

    You're right: I should have said coronavirus instead of "a COVID virus". However, the information on Wikipedia (which I certainly don't take as gospel) contradicts your assertion that "Flu is nothing to do with any of the coronaviruses"

  • edited May 2020

    @ElectroHead said:

    @u0421793 said:

    This is entirely false. It’s meaningless to say this a ‘COVID’ virus, the virus is a coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2, the disease it causes in humans is called COVID-19. Flu is nothing to do with any of the coronaviruses which are positive-sense single-stranded enveloped RNA viruses. Flu viruses, or Influenza-A or Influenza-B viruses, are entirely different, they’re all negative-sense, single-stranded, segmented RNA viruses. Misinformation can be very harmful at times like this, keep everything factual, if in doubt, say nothing.

    From Wikipedia:

    "Coronaviruses cause different coronavirus diseases including severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS),[5] and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).[6] Some strains of coronaviruses can also cause the common cold.[7][8][9][10]

    You're right: I should have said coronavirus instead of "a COVID virus". However, the information on Wikipedia (which I certainly don't take as gospel) contradicts your assertion that "Flu is nothing to do with any of the coronaviruses"

    It's a silly debate TBH, but none of the viruses in the Wikipedia list include the flu... Because the flu is not a coronavirus (the common cold is, but it's not related to the flu).

  • Dave Eggers' coinage "flattening the truth" deserves a high R number:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/03/opinion/dave-eggers-coronavirus-questions.html

  • @ElectroHead said:

    @knewspeak said:

    @ElectroHead said:
    Neil Ferguson and Imperial College are heavily funded by the B&M Gates Foundation. Make what you will of that fact, but I think it's clear they have a (not so hidden) agenda. Increasing numbers of epidemiologists are expressing scepticism that an effective vaccine will be found, I'm not an anti-vaxer - my son had all the basic jabs - but I'm not letting any Covid, or any flu jab from Gates' accomplices at Gilead, Novartis and the other big pharma firms, into my body.

    Trumps gud olde bleach trip will get ya to a happy place. Highly recommended by the Carrot Insanely Contrary. :p

    In other words, if you don't trust Gates, WHO and big pharma, you're a Trump supporter.

    Not at all, because if his supporters actually believed him, they’d either be dead or in a serious condition. I don’t think you’re stupid enough, to support him.

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