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Comments
Only time will tell but it's scary how quickly the leave campaigners are retreating from most of the things they said in the run up to the vote.
very different situation
they never joined
now the UK wants to leave the EU and keep the privileges
we will see about that
well we are out but nothing is supposed to change
huh? what?
its not like the EU has enough border problems ...
Adam Smith had no solution to his folly, but then again he didn't have to, he wouldn't be around.
I am french.
I am pro-Europe but not the way it is now.
Europe expanded way too fast and now you have no european government, no minister, no one to decide, except 28 (or 27 actually) presidents that can't agree on a whole european politic.
In america you have 50 states assembled under one flag and leaded by one government. That's how it works.
I'm not saying all of us 750 million people have to forget our languages and traditions but there must be the same lews everywhere, the same economy, the same government.
Now Europe is stuck and the only way to repair it is, imho, to disband and reform with 6 or 8 countries, build something solid and expand after that.
I think UK left some problems for other problems. They will be fine, but will Europe be fine ? I just hope European leaders take notes of what is happening and change everything.
Exactly, failings on both sides to accurately, and in some cases truthfully provide voters with at least a decent overview of the facts and implications of their choice.
And as to why people voted for this when the Leave campaign obviously had no plan whatsoever for a Brexit win, god only knows. Certainly Boris isn't celebrating - he was hoping for a Remain win with a narrow margin so he could mount a leadership challenge and become PM without a Brexit shitstorm.
It isn't, you're harking back to days when the World economic picture was totally different and the country had reserves to bolster short term losses. With interest rates at an all time low there's nowhere else to go, and the UK has very little bargaining power with World markets.
What papers and news are you reading? There's already a shitstorm - three TRILLION has already been wiped out. We export a miniscule amount to compared to what we import. Food, fuel, clothing, manufactured and electrical goods are all set to rise. Taxes are going to go up, the austerity cuts will seem generous compared to the cuts coming in Osbournes emergency budget. Our credit rating has been trashed, investors are backing out.
They might not. We have a housing shortage, and Chinese investors are already snapping up houses due to the weak pound and falling prices.
In the long-term inflation will rise (see those price rises I mentioned earlier), which means mortgage rates go up. Any falls in the cost of housing will be lost due to higher mortgage repayments, higher tax and increased living costs.
Bad, bad juju mother. Still 'we got our country back innit'.
together we are strong europeans,
if you are not in the EU you have to decide to which whip you want to dance
This is my open comment to all and my last word on the subject. Yes I will not enter into discussion on the vote any more. Not because I don't like healthy debate, I do. I just find that people name calling is not healthy debate.
You're right. It is not about right or wrong, it is about democracy.
You believe that so many are not knowledgeable enough to make a decision? You believe that you are informed and knowledgeable? You believe that the country should be protected against the common man? Well, those are the same thoughts and reactions that dictators mandate their laws by.
Let's look at history:
Some men used to believe that women were not knowledgeable enough to vote - do we now think that because of belief in one point of view 17000000 people are of lesser intelligence?
Some kept eduction for themselves in order to keep the majority powerless - indeed they are saying that the millennial generation are more educated and have been let down by the older generation. Yet only 38% of the youth could be bothered to vote!
Lies from all sides were used to confuse and disorientate - This vote was given as a bribe in the first instance. Agreed, not a way a vote should be given, yet given it was and vote we did - now let's see democracy supported, not manipulated towards making the whole voting process mean nothing.
Now let's look at the reaction of those that wanted to remain:
They call the electorate stupid.
They call the elderly selfish.
They call the decent racist, because of the racist few.
They clamour for a new vote without care for the harm to democracy.
They shout their love of the EU from all social media and claim their vast knowledge of the economy and world politics, that is theirs and theirs alone!
I'm just glad that it is likely that this is a loud minority that use these arguments and that the vast majority of people on both sides of the vote are both respectful and thoughtful - the kind of people I would like to see have their say in this world
Actually, even the most informed ones don't know the full facts. There is no exit strategy yet, it will take months before they agree on smth that will satisfy both sides. The 'leave' vote wasn't well defined so the whole idea of a simple yes/no vote was kinda stupid.
Should a thief be punished? Absolutely. Most will vote 'yes'. But how many would vote 'yes' if they knew that instead of a fine/short jail time they were going to chop his/her hand off?
The choices have to be well defined. I won't be surprised if they decide to conduct another vote, with several well described 'leave' options to choose from and the status quo option as well
No need. Russia will do that for you.
^^
Jeremy Hunt is considering running for PM, and he's mentioned a second referendum or at least a leave with more European involvement.
Basically, if the mood of the country switches when the effects of the decision kicks in some politicians will see this as an opportunity to appeal to the mood of the country and get in on a pro-European manifesto.
Along with everything that was warned about before the referendum coming true and the majority of the promises made by the leave campaign being immediately broken, nobody can even guess the human cost of this.
Just in my own personal case, my wife is a non-EU national, we met on tour when both our groups performed at Womad festival. The UK's visa law regarding foreign partners is obscene and as freelance performers, we can't hope to meet the obnoxious requirements. The only way that we can live together in the UK is because of the protections given to us under EU human rights and free movement laws. With Britain leaving the EU, we know that our days here are numbered and we're having to make our plans for leaving the UK. To live with your wife in the place you were born should be a basic human right. The fact that it can even be up for debate, let alone prohibitive to the point of impossibility, is disgusting.
Leave voters should be ashamed that their fantasy fairy tale nostalgia kick will have real and serious effects on people's lives. I am hoping for a Scottish separation. I was born and have lived in England my whole life, and proudly represented English music at a high level on the internationally world music circuit, but sadly I now feel ashamed of this association. I was fortunate enough to have been born in Glasgow and I will be glad to forfeit my English passport to become a Scottish national.
Spare me the insults please
The papers I read tend to be economics blogs, so I might have a different outlook than those who read the broadsheets, but the broadsheets (apart from the FT) are hopeless on economics.
Devaluation is almost certain to be a positive for the country, it helps the balance of trade and helps exporters immensely, and 20% devaluation offsets any 10% tariffs the EU might impose. That's standard economics. You don't need reserves to trade with the rest of the world, and the Bank of England has infinite reserves as demonstrated by their promise to recapitalize banks to the tune of £250 billion last week (by which they mean they will simply credit the necessary accounts, AKA create the money). But we will import less and export more as a result of the devaluation, that's a direct consequence of the pound being cheaper.
The pound dropping will definitely increase inflation, but since inflation is currently close to 2% below target how can that be anything to worry about? Inflation is necessary for growth, that's why deflation is the real fear of central bankers.
The trillions wiped off the stock markets are an echo of the trillions that came off after the Chinese "crisis" earlier this year. It doesn't necessarily mean anything other than investors are scared. Maybe there will be less investment in the UK, and that would definitely be bad, in which case that's a fair case against Brexit.
I would be surprised if interest rates go up, I don't think even our politicians and central bankers are stupid enough to allow that to happen. During the aftermath of the financial crisis interest rates stayed on the floor despite occasional spikes in inflation, because of the danger to the economy of raising them. Now that private debt is at very elevated levels the danger is even more acute. The only way I could see interest rates rising is if there was serious capital flight with large sums of money being taken out of the country.
And Osbourne's emergency budget was an empty threat, it wouldn't even pass his own MPs if he tried it. What the country needs in a time of crisis is more investment, not less, but sadly it's been 40 years since we had a genuinely Keynesian government (the Conservative Edward Heath ironically). The current austerity obsessed neoliberals have forgotten all the lessons on the 1930s, and that is actually a much bigger problem than Brexit IMO.
who would have thought that the UK is so divided?
where is this coming from?
London, north irland, and scotland seamed to be fine
so whats going on in the rest?
@richardyot - you make strong, sensible points.
I guess my position is one of hope that Europe can be reformed or changed into something that works better. And I'd say the U.K. should be on the inside trying to make that happen. While at the same time benefiting from the positives of having single market access, EU employment rights for workers etc etc.
I also think history tells us that reducing trade barriers and freeing up trade (rather than isolationism and protectionism) is desirable for the whole world economy (and world society).
The vote to leave felt like a massive protest vote to me. And while I sympathise with the protest (against austerity, a London-centric country, unfairness etc) I'm not sure what we have achieved now is gong to help much of that.
Finally, to other posters, remember Switzand and Norway pay all the EU levies and accept all the same rules of freedom of movement. So many people are wondering what the point would be of the U.K. having their status?? We'd then still have most of the things we'd apparently voted to be 'free' of. But just not be able to vote or influence anything in the EU anymore.
I personally think the positive benefits of staying in the EU weren't made clear enough to people during the campaign. Which is a shame.
But we need to look forward now and figure out a plan with some strong leadership in place. I guess one good thing is it's got more people engaged in politics.
They decided to go a separate way with a peaceful democratic vote. No conflict necessary. Britain is a great country with great allies, I'm sure they could take their business elsewhere if EU decided to be a butthurt bitch about it.
I'm not insulting you. That's a quote. Actually I'm more than happy to throw insults at the majority of the Leave brigade, but I still respect the decision by people like yourselves who have obviously given this a lot of thought and consideration.
I really hope you're right, and I hoped to be proved completely wrong on the economic aspects of all this...but I don't think this will be the case.
But there's a lot else at stake - human rights, healthcare, jobs, and the horrible racism and xenophobia the Leave debate has stirred up. Even if your finances recover, the other stuff isn't going away anytime soon.
EU will be fine without UK.
Im not sure if the UK will be fine without the EU, their next neighbor
now their abandoned ex-lover
what happens if all the banks move from london to frankfurt, because they would like to do business in the EU?
there will be a lot of change
@carol for an analysis of the costs of Bexit (it is a bit dry sorry):
What price Brexit?
Most economists think there will be a negative economic impact, definitely in the short-term, and even possibly in the long-term. Even for economists it's guesswork though, no-one can really predict the future. It won't be armageddon though, but even small costs can add up significantly in the long-run. The question really depends on how we adapt to the situation and whether we can shake off the austerity obsession, which is a much greater burden on society.
Hard to shake off austerity when you have a shrinking economy, a huge budget deficit and a huge trade deficit.
I'm glad to see proper discussion now from two people here that are both showing respectful thought. Not really surprised from @Matt_Fletcher_2000 and @richardyot though
I never said that I was more educated than anybody else, especially on Europe. So yes, you're right, I shouldn't have been put in that position either.
"Look after unemployment and the budget will look after itself" J M Keynes.
We've known that austerity is self-defeating since the 1930s, you can't cut your way to growth. Keynes called it the paradox of thrift, and his major insight was that the state can step in to stimulate demand and that the private sector will then benefit from the increased spending and the economy will grow. That is the only effective way to deal with recessions, and has been taught in standard economics textbooks for at least 70 years.
After WW2 UK the debt-to-GDP ratio was 200%, much higher than it is now. But instead of pursuing austerity the Labour government pursued a policy of full employment and created the NHS and the welfare state. No doubt at the time there were the usual voices calling for the the debt to be cut for the sake of "future generations" but it seems the debt didn't really burden those future generations, however the NHS and the welfare state certainly benefited them.
Keynesian economics created the modern middle-class (compare the world of the 1920s and 30s vs the 1950s and 60s) and showed us a way to decisively deal with recessions. The war helped, because in war time even the right-wingers forget their objections to deficit spending, but how to get out of a recession is not a problem we do not know how to solve, it's just that most politicians have chosen to forget.
I think this is the problem,
money, money money
no talk about shared values and laws
or if you would prefer to dance to the US or the russian whip or none of that
instead economy, fear and nationalism
I think I need to ralph now.
at last no more blah blah about € and what to do from non € countries.
I'm pretty sure there was talk about democracy at some point.
But money is important, the reason that the demagogues have any sway is because there are millions of people in the western world who don't feel they have any prospects. If there were more jobs and less inequality then there would be less scapegoating of immigrants.
As I said I respect those like yourselves that have given the economic side of the repercussions a lot of thought, and hope you're right. I've read countless numbers of predictions before and after the vote, but the majority don't paint a bright picture.
But there are other issues - the NHS will be adversely affected (which will work straight into the hands of pro-privatisation supporters such as Farage), casual and not-so casual racism is rearing it's ugly head for example.
These are frightening times for the vulnerable.
I don't know what to think about the situation of a democracy that votes for free movement of people is bad.
I think it speaks for it self.
democracy yes, free no
fuck that shit
What about german (and probably french as well ) whip ? Im going to say commonplace things but there always will be poor and Angry people against banksters and nomade yuppies in every continent and country,regardless the politic or the shared value and law.Europe is trying to Kill every nations and their sovereignty .This Brexit is a good way and example to know What Will happen If someone left the union .I thing it' s a good thing because UK has the potential (5th world's economy and Universal language) to survive to this .I May be wrong (Im not in politic) but What is done is done ...
Europe is trying to Kill every nations and their sovereignty.
where did you get that idea from?
@richardyot In essence I disagree with you on Europe and Britain's part in it, but I wish that the electorate had committed themselves to being as informed as you have. Thereafter we all have our own choices to make etc.
I also appreciate the dialogue (mostly) in this thread, which is (mostly) sincere and respectful.