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Comments

  • My first tune will be called the dead cat bounce. Apparently a city slang for the moment where currency value bounces back after a major fall due to stuff being bought at cheap rates.

  • @supadom said:
    My first tune will be called the dead cat bounce. Apparently a city slang for the moment where currency value bounces back after a major fall due to stuff being bought at cheap rates.

    Lol

  • @carol said:

    @Fruitbat1919 said:
    >
    However, the world seems much larger when you are disadvantaged by poverty, illness, disability or location.

    And yet you voted to make your World smaller - leaving a union of countries, to be isolated on an island that has stuck two fingers up to the rest of the World.

    Voting with leaders that actively seek to privatise a health service that you rely on.

    Leaving yourself at the mercy of an old Etonian Tory network hell bent on cutting your benefits and destroying the services you rely on.

    Voting with racists like Farage who are still destroying any hope of decent trade deals for UK.

    Good move.

    It is only your opinion that is how my vote would make the world.

    The rest you have said is just biased by your opinions and has little to do with the reality of life and more like the sloganeering of the those that can not believe in anything else but a certain point of view

  • edited June 2016

    @Fruitbat1919 said:

    @carol said:

    @Fruitbat1919 said:
    >
    However, the world seems much larger when you are disadvantaged by poverty, illness, disability or location.

    And yet you voted to make your World smaller - leaving a union of countries, to be isolated on an island that has stuck two fingers up to the rest of the World.

    Voting with leaders that actively seek to privatise a health service that you rely on.

    Leaving yourself at the mercy of an old Etonian Tory network hell bent on cutting your benefits and destroying the services you rely on.

    Voting with racists like Farage who are still destroying any hope of decent trade deals for UK.

    Good move.

    It is only your opinion that is how my vote would make the world.

    The rest you have said is just biased by your opinions and has little to do with the reality of life and more like the sloganeering of the those that can not believe in anything else but a certain point of view

    Oh dear, you really do believe all that stuff then. You think things were bad before? You're in for a big shock sunshine.

  • But wasn't the question too narrow in construct, to expect anything but hate and lies to manifest anyway. A political tool used by the PM, to further his and the Conservative parties interests.

  • edited June 2016

    @richardyot said:
    @carol you do know that Corbin was anti-EU for 30 years, and I would hazard a guess that he is only very lukewarm towards it now, mostly to pacify the PLP. Tony Benn, his mentor, was against the EU his whole life. He said that it was "better to have a bad parliament than a good king".

    The point being that the tories will not be in power for ever, we can (and eventually will) vote them out. We can't vote out the Lisbon Treaty, except by leaving the EU.

    Read this excellent analysis of the left's historical position on the EU.

    There are some ideological arguments for leaving, certainly. Also plenty for staying in (reducing borders, peace and stability, internationalism rather than isolationism etc).

    But... I guess I'm a pragmatist too. On a practical level what do we really think is going to happen in the next 5 -10 years to Britain? We live in a very interconnected world now, like it or not.

    Someone said Britain will be ok, it's 5th largest economy in the world. Well it was on Thursday, but now France is. I think we are currently trying to hang on to 6th place, but that might slip soon depending on the markets. We also just had our credit rating downgraded. Doesn't that immediately wipe out any benefit we might have gained from the last few years of biting austerity, most of which was suffered by the poorest in society.

    On another economic note, Richard, im interested how you see Briatin's future trading relationship with Europe (the worlds single biggest market)? They've been pretty clear today to say that we have to pay the same fees and accept the same rules on free movement as everyone else if we want free acces to the single market. There's no way we'll be 'rewarded' with special treatment for leaving (why would anyone who wants to keep the EU together do that?) So we either accept most of what the Leave campaign was saying we'd be free of (fees and freedom of movement), or we face huge barriers to being able to trade with the EU which will make us all much poorer in the UK.

    If the UK is much poorer over the next 5-10 years then that means more poverty, more austerity, more discontent, more rises in extremism etc... Doesn't it?

    Has liberal, progressive, left politics benefited from the poor state of the economy since 2008? I'd say, no. Look at the state the Labour Party's got into over that period.

    People who are poor to start with tend to be hit hardest by recessions. And the vast majority of experts (I know we've decided in our wisdom we don't like 'experts' anymore in this country) are saying that a recession is looking fairly likely (how deep and long it will be is the question).

    I get that there's lots to protest about, and the EU is flawed in many ways... But isnt what's just happened protest through the medium of self-harm???

  • @carol said:

    @Fruitbat1919 said:

    @carol said:

    @Fruitbat1919 said:
    >
    However, the world seems much larger when you are disadvantaged by poverty, illness, disability or location.

    And yet you voted to make your World smaller - leaving a union of countries, to be isolated on an island that has stuck two fingers up to the rest of the World.

    Voting with leaders that actively seek to privatise a health service that you rely on.

    Leaving yourself at the mercy of an old Etonian Tory network hell bent on cutting your benefits and destroying the services you rely on.

    Voting with racists like Farage who are still destroying any hope of decent trade deals for UK.

    Good move.

    It is only your opinion that is how my vote would make the world.

    The rest you have said is just biased by your opinions and has little to do with the reality of life and more like the sloganeering of the those that can not believe in anything else but a certain point of view

    Oh dear, you really do believe all that stuff then. You think things were bad before? You're in for a big shock sunshine.

    All what stuff? The stuff you believe? They are not the only options or things to consider.
    And to be honest, your language is similar in tone to Farage and his childish speech at the EU

  • @carol said:

    @supadom said:
    My first tune will be called the dead cat bounce. Apparently a city slang for the moment where currency value bounces back after a major fall due to stuff being bought at cheap rates.

    Lol

    And then falls again......

  • @knewspeak said:
    But wasn't the question too narrow in construct, to expect anything but hate and lies to manifest anyway. A political tool used by the PM, to further his and the Conservative parties interests.

    Yep pretty much a political ploy he thought he could control. Not what a leader of the country should be doing.

  • @Matt_Fletcher_2000 said:I get that there's lots to protest about, and the EU is flawed in many ways... But isnt what's just happened protest through medium of self-harm???

    bingo!

  • By the way...

    Probably unwise to talk politics at all (so apologies if anyone minds). However I think the audiobus forum can be proud of itself for having a pretty respectful and constructive debate about the issue so far without throwing abuse around (like so much of the Internet and so much of the campaign itself).

    It's actually really interesting because we're such a mixed bunch, I'm sure, in terms of nationality, social background, profession etc etc

  • @Matt_Fletcher_2000 said:

    @richardyot said:
    @carol you do know that Corbin was anti-EU for 30 years, and I would hazard a guess that he is only very lukewarm towards it now, mostly to pacify the PLP. Tony Benn, his mentor, was against the EU his whole life. He said that it was "better to have a bad parliament than a good king".

    The point being that the tories will not be in power for ever, we can (and eventually will) vote them out. We can't vote out the Lisbon Treaty, except by leaving the EU.

    Read this excellent analysis of the left's historical position on the EU.

    There are some ideological arguments for leaving, certainly. Also plenty for staying in (reducing borders, peace and stability, internationalism rather than isolationism etc).

    But... I guess I'm a pragmatist too. On a practical level what do we really think is going to happen in the next 5 -10 years to Britain? We live in a very interconnected world now, like it or not.

    Someone said Britain will be ok, it's 5th largest economy in the world. Well it was on Thursday, but now France is. I think we are currently trying to hang on to 6th place, but that might slip soon depending on the markets. We also just had our credit rating downgraded. Doesn't that immediately wipe out any benefit we might have gained from the last few years of biting austerity, most of which was suffered by the poorest in society.

    On another economic note, Richard, im interested how you see Briatin's future trading relationship with Europe (the worlds single biggest market)? They've been pretty clear today to say that we have to pay the same fees and accept the same rules on free movement as everyone else if we want free acces to the single market. There's no way we'll be 'rewarded' with special treatment for leaving (why would anyone who wants to keep the EU together do that?) So we either accept most of what the Leave campaign was saying we'd be free of (fees and freedom of movement), or we face huge barriers to being able to trade with the EU which will make us all much poorer in the UK.

    If the UK is much poorer over the next 5-10 years then that means more poverty, more austerity, more discontent, more rises in extremism etc... Doesn't it?

    Has liberal, progressive, left politics benefited from the poor state of the economy since 2008? I'd say, no. Look at the state the Labour Party's got into over that period.

    People who are poor to start with tend to be hit hardest by recessions. And the vast majority of experts (I know we've decided in our wisdom we don't like 'experts' anymore in this country) are saying that a recession is looking fairly likely (how deep and long it will be is the question).

    I get that there's lots to protest about, and the EU is flawed in many ways... But isnt what's just happened protest through medium of self-harm???

    Many quality points. I must say though, there are more options than either the devil you know (the EU) and the idea that out of the EU is segregating oneself from the World. The EU is not the World, it is an organisation. I believe many in the EU have thoughts of being larger and more important than they are in secret (some admit them in public) dark places :p

    Obviously leaving or staying can be painted by words into many different idealistic visions to sell to people. While some are being expressed by people as the only options of the right and informed, they are to my mind, talking in the same narrow minded way that polititions like Farage are.

    I just hope that somewhere in the UK we can find the polititions that will listen to all points of view and sit down and try to work in a positive way for the future, not in the black or white way that many seem to not be able to look beyond :)

  • If the EU was to reform and become more democratic, would this alter people's opinions of it.

  • @Matt_Fletcher_2000 it's impossible to predict the economic consequences of Brexit, but most economists think it will have a negative impact. I don't dispute that.

    However a couple of points: firstly as a nation we gained nothing from austerity, it was never necessary before and is not necessary now. The U.K. government doesn't need to save its pennies for a rainy day, in fact it would be much better off spending all the pennies it can, because governments can't "save" money, any surplus is simply removed from circulation (ie destroyed).

    The financial crisis was a massive failing of the private sector, which by clever propaganda was turned into an attack on the public sector. Austerity is just a political tool to facilitate this and blame the crisis on government spending. Deficits are a necessity in modern economies, which is why countries with external trade deficits like the UK or US can never run surpluses without triggering recessions.

    Secondly the triple A rating means absolutely nothing. Bond holders don't give a fig about what the rating agencies say about government debt, which is why the yields went down this week, not up. If the ratings meant anything whatsoever the cost of borrowing would have risen when the rating was lowered, but it didn't. The rating agencies have been reducing Japan's rating for years with zero effect, because bond holders know that countries that issue their own currency will always pay their debts. The U.K. Can never go bankrupt or run out of money, the Bank of England has a magic money tree that it will use, and has used, in times of crisis. We used to print money all the time with the Ways and Means account which was essentially an overdraft at the BoE. We can do the same again.

    Presumably our trading position with Europe will be negotiated, and yes we may well have to concede free movement of people for access to the single market. Personally that doesn't bother me at all :) The outcome of the negotiation will depend on who we elect, the right will want a different kind of deal to the left. At worst we will face tariffs, but in return we will impose them, and since we import more from the EU than we export its all a bit of a wash.

    Whether we are richer or poorer in 10 years time is really a political choice, not an economic one. If we keep electing austerity loving politicians then we will be poorer. If we finally decide to invest in the country again, like we did after WW2, then we can be richer.

    From the governments point of view, money is not an asset to be saved, money is a flow. The nation state is very much like the banker in a game of Monopoly, it doesn't matter how much is in the bank, only how much is on the board.

  • edited June 2016

    @BiancaNeve said:

    @carol said:

    @supadom said:
    My first tune will be called the dead cat bounce. Apparently a city slang for the moment where currency value bounces back after a major fall due to stuff being bought at cheap rates.

    Lol

    And then falls again......

    Haha, welcome to my joke!

    Edit: of course it falls again, it's a dead cat after all!

  • @knewspeak said:
    If the EU was to reform and become more democratic, would this alter people's opinions of it.

    Difficult to answer. For myself, the power of the EU with regards to individual nations laws and fiscal policy is too centralised for it to be efficient and responsive.

  • Many quality points. I must say though, there are more options than either the devil you know (the EU) and the idea that out of the EU is segregating oneself from the World. The EU is not the World, it is an organisation.

    Yes, fair enough.

    The EU will have to reform or it will 'die'. I just think Britain might have been smarter being part of that process inside it (influencing whatever comes next), rather than outside it.

    Obviously leaving or staying can be painted by words into many different idealistic visions to sell to people.

    This is very true.

    I just hope that somewhere in the UK we can find the polititions that will listen to all points of view and sit down and try to work in a positive way for the future, not in the black or white way that many seem to not be able to look beyond :)

    Yep. I agree. I think/hope that to be honest that's what will have to happen.

  • edited June 2016

    @Matt_Fletcher_2000 said:

    Many quality points. I must say though, there are more options than either the devil you know (the EU) and the idea that out of the EU is segregating oneself from the World. The EU is not the World, it is an organisation.

    Yes, fair enough.

    The EU will have to reform or it will 'die'. I just think Britain might have been smarter being part of that process inside it (influencing whatever comes next), rather than outside it.

    Obviously leaving or staying can be painted by words into many different idealistic visions to sell to people.

    This is very true.

    I just hope that somewhere in the UK we can find the polititions that will listen to all points of view and sit down and try to work in a positive way for the future, not in the black or white way that many seem to not be able to look beyond :)

    Yep. I agree. I think/hope that to be honest that's what will have to happen.

    Yes I agree it could have been done better. The polititions could have listened prior to a vote being needed. I say needed, as I believe while we are innately interlinked with world politics, many in the UK have not had a voice in years. The world has changed and those with power now hide behind the veil of technology and red tape.

    Yet DC and the Conservative party using the vote for political gain seems quite a plausible point of view. I do not think it was a wise move or in the country's best interest to approach the needed changes with the vote offered at this time by politicians that have quite frankly lied on both sides. Not that I believe that many listened or were overtly influenced by most the bullshit. Buried deep below all the media and political bs though, is some serious changes in world and national politics that need to be looked at and worked on.

  • I hope your correct Matt, that politicians listen, but most scenarios, I fear, don't lead to a good outcome, the status-quo that has existed in politics and economics, more or less since the war, seems to be in grave peril.

  • @Fruitbat1919 said:

    @carol said:

    @Fruitbat1919 said:

    @carol said:

    @Fruitbat1919 said:
    >
    However, the world seems much larger when you are disadvantaged by poverty, illness, disability or location.

    And yet you voted to make your World smaller - leaving a union of countries, to be isolated on an island that has stuck two fingers up to the rest of the World.

    Voting with leaders that actively seek to privatise a health service that you rely on.

    Leaving yourself at the mercy of an old Etonian Tory network hell bent on cutting your benefits and destroying the services you rely on.

    Voting with racists like Farage who are still destroying any hope of decent trade deals for UK.

    Good move.

    It is only your opinion that is how my vote would make the world.

    The rest you have said is just biased by your opinions and has little to do with the reality of life and more like the sloganeering of the those that can not believe in anything else but a certain point of view

    Oh dear, you really do believe all that stuff then. You think things were bad before? You're in for a big shock sunshine.

    All what stuff? The stuff you believe? They are not the only options or things to consider.
    And to be honest, your language is similar in tone to Farage and his childish speech at the EU

    You voted for him, not me.

    Anyway, I wish you all the best.

  • @knewspeak said:
    I hope your correct Matt, that politicians listen, but most scenarios, I fear, don't lead to a good outcome, the status-quo that has existed in politics and economics, more or less since the war, seems to be in grave peril.

    I believe that there are many positive scenarios if and only if people can rise to the occasion and give a little. Yes that's a stretch for many. You just have to watch politics on the tv and you can see how childish they all act.

    Yes I'm guilty of laughing at Nigal Farage at the EU conference, but really any good points politicians make they seem to shit on with one upmanship and childish comments or games.

    We have the vote in the UK, but I really struggle to see any party that stands for anything more than a veil of weak and ill thought promises. Many say the same in all parts of the world....well the people that are able to without being imprisoned or shot.

  • @richardyot - yep I get Keynesianism (studied it at one time long ago :) ).

    I'm not an advocate of austerity. Certainly not after the initial shock of the banking crisis was dealt with. We'd probably have been better upping public spending during the last few years for reasons you outline, I agree. (Then also we wouldn't have the social problems we see accross the country, the rise of the right etc..).

    I hope you're right that we won't have to pay higher interest rates for our big national debt now... I guess we'll see.

    In terms of increased investment in the UK to stimulate the economy - well these days we're in a much more globalised world than in Keynes time. While the UK government can invest some, there's going to be a limit to how much any government is going to increase borrowing during another recession. And the rest needs to come from international investment.

    Is the UK a good investment prospect now we've detached ourselves from Europe, and are in completely uncharted and unplanned for territory, having to negotiate new trade deals with every single country in the world (we have virtually no trade negotiators by the way because for the last 40 years the EU has done that for us)? And with both main parties with no leadership right now. And an election coming up.

    Investors normally like stability and certainty.

    Anyway - maybe I'm being too gloomy. I genuinely hope I'm proved wrong.

  • Still learning. Good posts!

  • @Matt_Fletcher_2000 said:
    @richardyot - yep I get Keynesianism (studied it at one time long ago :) ).

    I'm not an advocate of austerity. Certainly not after the initial shock of the banking crisis was dealt with. We'd probably have been better upping public spending during the last few years for reasons you outline, I agree. (Then also we wouldn't have the social problems we see accross the country, the rise of the right etc..).

    I hope you're right that we won't have to pay higher interest rates for our big national debt now... I guess we'll see.

    In terms of increased investment in the UK to stimulate the economy - well these days we're in a much more globalised world than in Keynes time. While the UK government can invest some, there's going to be a limit to how much any government is going to increase borrowing during another recession. And the rest needs to come from international investment.

    Is the UK a good investment prospect now we've detached ourselves from Europe, and are in completely uncharted and unplanned for territory, having to negotiate new trade deals with every single country in the world (we have virtually no trade negotiators by the way because for the last 40 years the EU has done that for us)? And with both main parties with no leadership right now. And an election coming up.

    Investors normally like stability and certainty.

    Anyway - maybe I'm being too gloomy. I genuinely hope I'm proved wrong.

    Yes cheer up ya gloomy fecker lol ;)

    The future is still to be made and my hope is that the youth that are moaning in this country, the same youth that did not vote in numbers, will now get involved in the future and make it as good as it can be. A world where EU is not the answer, but where we all really start getting involved in the whole world. Involved in helping people live fulfilling lives. A world where money and what you have is not the be all and end all.

  • @Matt_Fletcher_2000 I will bet my left leg that the rating agencies will have zero effect on the UK bond yields. Didn't we lose the first AAA rating back in 2011? What effect did that have on bond yields, oh yes, they went down!

    Globalisation has no effect on the governments capacity to regulate demand, Serling is essentially a closed loop, totally within our control. The state always has the ability to put unused resources (the unemployed) to work, just like it did in the 1950s.

    The main change since the Keynesian era is the collapse of Bretton-Woods in 1971, but this actually makes it easier for the state to use fiscal policy and spend, because under Bretton-Woods the pound was pegged to the dollar, which was a serious constraint (much like the Euro is to the Greeks and Spanish). Sterling now floats, so there is no need to raise interest rates in order to peg to the dollar, and that in turn means more freedom for the BoE.

    There is no reason why the government can't decide to spend its way to growth, except for the political will to do so and the household analogies that they peddle to the public. In the end all the money comes back (the flow), except for what the private sector decides to save (which becomes the deficit) As long as growth and inflation outstrip the deficit it's perfectly sustainable.

  • @knewspeak said:
    I hope your correct Matt, that politicians listen, but most scenarios, I fear, don't lead to a good outcome, the status-quo that has existed in politics and economics, more or less since the war, seems to be in grave peril.

    It's not so much that I think politicians will listen (to their voters).

    I actually think that political leaders across all the main parties (and many leaders in Europe) realise and would agree with exactly what you have said. I don't think any of them really thought the vote would go this way. They were just playing risky political games. So I think there may be some kind of compromise struck, somehow, somewhere along the line to avoid utter, utter chaos.

    The problem then becomes how politicians sell that back to voters who have been promised the utterly black and white statement of 'leave'.

    The whole thing is rather a mess IMO.

    The most important thing is it's all done peacefully - whatever happens.

  • @Fruitbat1919 said:

    Yes cheer up ya gloomy fecker lol ;)

    Ha... I'll try to. :).

    Maybe Genome has got finally got Link or MidiDesigner Pro now does split screen. That would help a lot :).

  • @Matt_Fletcher_2000 said:

    @Fruitbat1919 said:

    Yes cheer up ya gloomy fecker lol ;)

    Ha... I'll try to. :).

    Maybe Genome has got finally got Link or MidiDesigner Pro now does split screen. That would help a lot :).

    It's truly the little gestures in life that make the World whole.....so yes devs, give us a little extra joy today ;)

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