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So, about this coronavirus...
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No.
And don’t call me serious.
The biggest problem with this virus is that it closely mimics the flu virus and is probably in unnoticed circulation in more places than being reported presently, it is only when someone becomes seriously ill or has been in contact with someone known to have had the virus, that it can be tracked, this is probably a very small minority of cases, so the mortality rate is probably smaller than the statistical data suggests, but trying to stop the spread is going to be near impossible.
If my math is right that 1.3% for over 50 is a bit daunting. The fatality rate for the flu ages 50-64 is .051%.
I'd be hesitant to cross the road on foot with odds like that.
That means that for every 2000 people over from 50-59 that become symptomatic for coronavirus, 26 of them will die.
For every 2000 people in that age rage that become symptomatic for the flu, one will die.
So, while I wouldn't panic. Those aren't terribly reassuring numbers, either -- particularly with the transmission rate still not well understood nor how widespread it is.
Besides, even if you don’t actually end up dying the consequences are severe. Quarantine (not just for you, but for anyone who came in contact with you), severe illness, possible extended hospitalization and even intensive care.
Just pointing to death statistics is like saying anything but fatal automobile accidents, or cancer that doesn’t end in death, is nothing to be concerned about.
Death rate is the least concern in some ways. It’s the cascading impact if it becomes a serious pandemic.
Not that I’m personally worried. I think people are being overly panicked by the media drama more than is warranted for most of our daily lives.
Washing hands for 20 seconds paying attention to every surface and not touching your face.
For 20 seconds: I'm checking out tunes that I can sing while do this... "Isn't She Lovely" up the
word "Be" feels good for me.
Now I'm research something I can use for those little scratches I can carry around and wash at the same time or just dip in sanitizer.
When I'm with my peer group (mostly Jazz Jams) I expect to loose 6-8 out of 100. Maybe they will start cancelling then as the virus works its way across my area.
The shortages that seem urgent are:
"Test Kits". The CDC has test about 400 people I think.
Scaling up the labs to make the kits will be linear while the virus is exponential.
Masks: They must be prioritized for those infected. They won't be.
Sanitizer: I'm researching this... Home made lotion w/ Isoproply alcohol might do the trick.
All the supplies that make you go to the grocery. I'm moving a lot to an Amazon delivery and
stocking up on consumables that make sense to drop grocery runs to 1-2 month.
Anything else to consider to help stop spreading this too fast while we scale up to slow it down?
@McD, happy birthday x2 =20 seconds.
I know. I want a tune that I can live with so I went straight for Stevie Wonder. West Side Story would be a nice choice to start humming. If it becomes an ear worm I want it to be fun.
Even Stevie's Happy Birthday Tune would be better and it would not be my favorite.
"Tall and Tan and Young and Lovely..." something with clever rhythms I can riff with and make fart noises with my hands. Life being so short I want to make it fun.
Truth articulated.
Nicely done.
@McD, you are an articulate bastard. Let us use your observations to chart the course of COVID-19 with two simple equations....
Ukraine extortion = utter denial = failed impeachment= utter admission that he absolutely sought foreign interference in our elections.
COVID-19= hoax ((utter denial)= deadly spread of virus (failed effort to contain)= TRUMP: the Democrats created the virus in a Chinese basement lab to unseat the President.
Thus the “Hoax” when it is no longer viable mutates to something far worse: the identification and demonizing of the Dems and liberals as “Other”, “Deep State Operatives” “Communist Flunkies”. Now when the election takes place (if it takes place) should Trump be defeated he will, in an amazing ironical twist, claim foreign interference against him (the Dems in league with the Chinese against His reelection). This lie of all lies will be followed with his attempt to hold on to power by force. And thus chaos is finally achieved.
Right now his base believes the virus is a hoax, but that will all be quickly forgotten as Trump pivots to the ultimate lie. The Democrats, Shifty Schiff, Crazy Nancy, et. al. cooked up the virus in their Wuhan stewpots and unleashed it on all the good people. His base will forget the hoax bullshit and with their beautiful short term memory loss will focus on the fact that their relatives are dying and there is no vaccine or antibiotics available (the saintly efforts of Mike Pence crippled by liberal operatives in the Deep State).
Yes @McD, you state the facts very nicely. Facts that four years ago most people would have said were sheer fantasy and impossible in the land of the free. Well, advance your imagination a notch. I believe 100% that the virus will disrupt our lives and that the Authoritarian, who has yet to admit responsibility for even the slightest error of judgement, will see the demonizing of the Democrats as the unexpected windfall he always wanted: the opportunity to seal the divisions in the US and pit neighbor against neighbor and brother against brother.
Let us say that in fact Donald Trump is not a paid operative of Russia. Of course he isn’t. They did not even have to pay to see their greatest hopes come to fruition in these here United States. Trump’s own malignant narcissism and greed and the brute cultishness and fear of his followers were all that was needed to upend two hundred and fifty years of freedom and decency (or at least the attempt to evolve toward those ideals).
The lights are going out one by one, my friends. The FDC head has authorized testing for COVID-19
as an end run around the administration’s denial of any significant problem. Will his head roll only to be replaced by another Holocaust denier?? Let us wait and see.
These are my own personal opinions, of course. As were George Orwell’s.
And on that note, let’s nip this in the bud.