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Comments
You're not paying attention. I already gave some links about T-Cell cross immunity and a theory on why Japan was not affected earlier in the thread. Just search on google for "t cell cross reactivity covid". There are at least 6 scientific studies now on it.
Nothing can really be drawn from these studies just that more research is needed.
How else do you explain so many asymptomatic cases?
Watching the triumph of the trump, Leni would be proud.
The statistics about Covid-19 are an ongoing case, to presume too much at this early stage, even trying to forecast flu cases is incredibly difficult, that’s been around how long. So what proportion do asymptomatic cases make up of all cases?
No one definitely knows but I've seen estimates that it could be up to 80%
@Mark B. You keep posting made up facts". The trajectory of the epidemic has been radically different in countries with universal/near universal mask wearing (along with other measures)
You simply make statements to support your belief regardless of actual fact.
You all clearly do not know about Schroederdingers box of magic cats. Masks are both harmful and don't make any difference at all. Science!
Yes, you’re right. Maybe face masks and other measures are making things worse. Spot the country that is not forced to wear masks and is not seeing any increase in deaths.
I’ve followed your posts about cross immunity and it seems your on their hook, man.
Fauci is the authority these things and I suffer from the rudeness of following the scientific method in evaluating information.
Only per review published studies are satisfying in that regard.
All these wild theories are not facts.
We will have to wait for better studies. Meanwhile it’s wise to use a mask, so you live to see the study.
That’s crazy your actually proposing that wearing mask is causing the increased mortality rate in Covid-19 related deaths when according to your chosen science there should be no increase above the norm, regardless of mask wearing or not, because we should all have acquired heard immunity.
Mark. You know full well that in South Korea and China and Taiwan Asia where mask wearing is near universal that the trajectory of the epidemic is radically different than in places with less mask wearing. The graph you posted simply cherry picks countries and does not survey all countries. Also, you seem to equate state mandates on mask wearing with mask wearing. Which, of course, is irrelevant to whether wearing masks is effective.
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It’s certainly made no favourable difference and the lockdowns didn’t help.
“The evidence suggests, then, that the sweeping, mandated lockdowns that followed voluntary responses exacted a great cost, with little effect on transmission. We can’t change the past, but we should avoid making the same mistake again.”
https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/10/stats-hold-a-surprise-lockdowns-may-have-had-little-effect-on-covid-19-spread/
What are you finding so difficult to understand that something is different in Asia regarding this virus. Do you really think all these countries have been amazingly efficient in stopping the spread.
Deaths per million
China 3
Japan 13
Vietnam 0.4
Thailand 0.8
Korea 8
Peru 992 (military enforced lockdown and mask wearing from March 15th)
Spain 689 (hardest lockdown in Europe)
Hmmm, it appears @Mark B (AKA Vlad P) is getting under the forum's skin once again.
He revels in your continued attacks against his baseless pseudo-science studies and cherry-picked so-called data.
Why encourage him? Vlad has been on my ignore list for weeks, and suddenly I (and the many others who have also ignored him) are being subjected to responses to his renewed attempts to spread fake news here on the forum.
For those of you who are new to the forum and are unaware of how to block someone (like Mark B, for example) 🤗 This is how you terminate fake news:
First, click on Mark's icon.
Then select "edit profile:"
Now select "IGNORE"
Like Dumbass Donnie likes to say, If you ignore someone they will magically go away."
Quote
obesity rates, health care systems, mask usage, population density, adherence to guidelines, etc. etc. which number of factors beyond natural selection would you like to consider?
Patti LuPone has a great take on the balcony photo op:
https://mobile.twitter.com/pattilupone/status/1313285830476259334
In the cases of China and Korea: Yes, they clearly ave been effective (as have many African countries). In Wuhan UNTIL THEY TOOK measures, the situation was very bad. One can't make the argument that people in Wuhan are significantly less susceptible than in the U.S. The spread there initially was highly alarming. They took strong measures and got it under control -- and then did a massive testing effort at the first sign that cases were rising. In South Korea, they took strong measures very quickly -- there initially was a dramatic number of cases -- so, we know they are susceptible, too. But in SK people started wearing masks immediately and adoption was near universal.
There is consensus among the world's scientists now with very few outliers. The West was very slow to accept masks.
Hubei has a population of 58.5 million. They had 4512 deaths which has got to be similar to the amount of people that die from flu in that period of time.
How do you explain the Thailand paradox. Even Gavinski agrees with this one. Hundreds of thousands of tourists from China including Hubei while the epidemic was happening in China. Thailand weren’t wearing masks at that point. It just failed to take off. Only 59 died.
Thailand is different. All Asian people are not the same.
In Wuhan, they were highly susceptible. In South Korea, too. In both places, the spread changed in response to actions taken.
Thailand is different. And, yes, it is still a mystery. But you can't extrapolate Thailand to all Asia. It amuses me that pretty much the only people that have difficulty accepting the notion that masks play a significant role in helping control the epidemic (with some exceptions) are Westerners who also have certain political views.
It didn’t spread in Thailand even though no masks because Thai’s are different to the rest of the entire world. That’s your argument.
He really does seem to look better with the old 'vid.
@Mark B I do think the Thailand thing is strange. Not true that people weren't wearing masks though. As I said in my earlier post, in Bangkok when I was there in early February a lot of Thai people were wearing masks on the subway. Some foreigners, but mostly not. At that point though, the virus was not widespread in Europe. Almost all Chinese people I saw were being very careful about mask wearing. And in fact, almost every time I went into a pharmacy, there were Chinese people there trying to buy masks, lol.
The main superspreader event I remember hearing of in Thailand was connected to a bar or ktv or something in Bangkok - the kind of environment where people are shouting amd there is more risk of airborne transmission. I'm not discounting the idea that there could be some immunity there. But there are lots of other factors at play too. On the islands, for example, the vast majority of socialising is open air. And the tourists are swimming in the sea. Sea water can have anti viral properties, and add in the fact that you're basically doing nasal rinsing every time you swim in the sea. And then you have the sun and other factors at play too. It's complex!
Which is irrelevant to Wuhan and South Korea. Thailand has no relevance to the question of whether mask wearing and other measures have been effective in other places.
I can't tell if you are intentionally being a chaos agent or don't understand that you are cherry picking data to justify your own views.
Even scientists initially skeptical about the effectiveness of masks in reducing spread (i.e. almost all in the West) have changed their mind based on data.
If masks, lockdowns and social distancing worked Influenza deaths would also be flat-lining but they are not.
Three public health experts – Professor Martin Kulldorff (Harvard), Professor Sunetra Gupta (Oxford) and Professor Jay Bhattacharya (Stanford) – have come together in Great Barrington, Massachusetts to launch the Great Barrington Declaration, a petition calling on governments around the world to adapt a more proportionate approach to managing the pandemic that they call “Focused Protection”.
Coming from both the left and right, and around the world, we have devoted our careers to protecting people. Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health. The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health – leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden. Keeping students out of school is a grave injustice.
Keeping these measures in place until a vaccine is available will cause irreparable damage, with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed.
Fortunately, our understanding of the virus is growing. We know that vulnerability to death from COVID-19 is more than a thousand-fold higher in the old and infirm than the young. Indeed, for children, COVID-19 is less dangerous than many other harms, including influenza.
As immunity builds in the population, the risk of infection to all – including the vulnerable – falls. We know that all populations will eventually reach herd immunity – i.e. the point at which the rate of new infections is stable – and that this can be assisted by (but is not dependent upon) a vaccine. Our goal should therefore be to minimize mortality and social harm until we reach herd immunity.
The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused Protection.
Adopting measures to protect the vulnerable should be the central aim of public health responses to COVID-19. By way of example, nursing homes should use staff with acquired immunity and perform frequent PCR testing of other staff and all visitors. Staff rotation should be minimized. Retired people living at home should have groceries and other essentials delivered to their home. When possible, they should meet family members outside rather than inside. A comprehensive and detailed list of measures, including approaches to multi-generational households, can be implemented, and is well within the scope and capability of public health professionals.
Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal. Simple hygiene measures, such as hand washing and staying home when sick should be practiced by everyone to reduce the herd immunity threshold. Schools and universities should be open for in-person teaching. Extracurricular activities, such as sports, should be resumed. Young low-risk adults should work normally, rather than from home. Restaurants and other businesses should open. Arts, music, sport and other cultural activities should resume. People who are more at risk may participate if they wish, while society as a whole enjoys the protection conferred upon the vulnerable by those who have built up herd immunity.
all good and well if death was the only thing to worry about with covid....
same situation in japan. Most of the deaths are the elderly, but those who have fallen into the category of severe cases have had life-altering outcomes. I know people who will suffer from breathing problems for the rest of their lives. We have cases of people who have fallen back in april, and have yet to come out of the symptoms. We've even had cases of people who seemed to be asymptomatic, and then become severe months later. There is no firm data set that says going back to normal has no impact. What this argument is saying is "dying happens...and getting sick happens...try your luck and let the rest of us get on with it." none of these arguments make any sense when you consider the broad scale of things that need to be condidered. You cant tell people to go back to normal life and take their chances in an area where the health care system cant handle a sudden cluster of severe cases IF they come up. Its not as simple as masks work or dont, or one country has less cases than another. Every single region must consider their needs and capacity, because it can get out of control quick.
@Mark B : Those folks you quoted are considered outliers and epidemiologist have been criticizing their work for months -- including two studies about the prevalence of COVID.
"If masks, lockdowns and social distancing worked Influenza deaths would also be flat-lining but they are not."
Are you now actually arguing that those things are totally ineffective? Explain this: New Zealand did an extreme lockdown. And then safely reopened. They have fewer COVID cases than the White House.
You'll be disappointed to know that they met with the Trump administration and they were supportive.
The idea of allowing the virus to spread uncontrollably is gaining traction in the White House, where Atlas is advising President Trump.
Scott Atlas told The Hill in an email that he attended the meeting and supports the declaration the group put out endorsing herd immunity.
"Their targeted protection of the vulnerable and opening schools and society policy matches the policy of the President and what I have advised"
Not difficult when you are an isolated, low population, self sufficient island in the middle of nowhere.