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Ukraine
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Will Ukraine be Putin’s Vietnam? I don’t think so. Their population seems quite split on the whole issue. Russia will take it over and absorb it.
it could get very bad in Ukraine. I can't imagine that Russia intends to occupy the entire country, but then I wouldn't imagine that Russia would invade like this either.
Russian developers may end up being victims of sanctions.
Putin has been quite explicit about his desire to “re-unify” what were formerly Russian territories. He has triangulated Russian interests and he’s taking advantage of the situation with the weakest US President in modern history.
Wars don’t change except in name;
The next one must go just the same,
And new foul tricks unguessed before
Will win and justify this War.
— Robert Graves, “The Next War”
Keep safe, best wishes
You sure you’re not a socialist, you sound like a Putin apologist to me.
Putin knows that if there ever is the time to take Ukraine, this is it. Brexit, tail end of pandemic etc.
I seriously doubt that. This would be the case if Russia was a prosperous country. While this is true for oligarchs, regular Joes or in Russia’s case Vanias, will not just take it. There’s not much margin left. That is unless Putin has some Sino-Russian magic going up his sleeve.
If the West is resolute with their sanction, which can be doubted as they will hurt both sides, there is a chance that the red line will get crossed. It also may be that Russia will get even more China style draconian and just completely isolates from the west. This is also a very real possibility, and would make dissent harder to accomplish. I don’t know for sure but Russian young are likely resistant to Putin’s demagoguery and quite world savvy considering free access to WWW.
Here’s an interesting article I just read on RT. While clearly a propaganda piece, it does illustrate quite well where Putin might be coming from. It’s quite long winded but worth a read, I think.
https://www.rt.com/russia/550271-putin-doctrine-foreign-policy/?fbclid=IwAR3b615gia8FoEv50YMcUrYqKHRv5-YSIuM8gMomtpVNxORbo-NHUZgof2o
IMHO this has nothing to do with the western weakness but rather with European dumbness. That NATO is not going to war for Ukraine was obvious. Putin knew that. Putin couldn‘t allow the Ukraine to be a potential NATO member. Many analysts had foreseen that. For example former US national security advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski. This man is definitely not known as a friend of Russia but he clearly acknowledged what Ukraine means for Russia’s security. Here a quote from a 2015 interview with Der Spiegel:
I’m sure Putin would have preferred to reach that goal without military force because this resolution will have its price - politically and monetary. No doubt about that. So why did the west not choose the easy way out and continued to ignore Russsia’s security interests in contrast to better knowledge?
I assume NATO is not going to war but will impose hard sanctions. If the game plays out like that the consequences are quite different for the western players: not the worst for the US but quite bad for the EU. The US does not much trade with Russia, doesn’t rely on their gas and the war is far away. The EU, first of all Germany, will be hit hard by the sanctions and possible gas supply interruptions. Situation in eastern Europe will remain unstable. As a result the economic and military bonds between EU countries and the US will be strengthened. The US could not win Ukraine but also didn’t lose on the Eurasian chessboard.
If you ask me Europe was too dumb to see this coming. IMHO EU should have strengthened their own military power but acknowledge the Russian security needs from a position of strength. Ukraine could have taken the path that Brzezinski outlined: politically associated with EU but military neutral. The Russians could have accepted that and Ukraine could have been the joint between EU and Russia. But this would have left the US out of the game…
Don’t say stupid things. Putin is a very dangerous person because he is an intelligent and strategic thinker who can see an opportunity to take advantage of a weak President. Biden should be removed from office.
Funny how so many supposedly leftist contrarians got this so wrong. Taibbi, Greenwald, Gabbard, all insisting this would never happen and that Putin's demands were reasonable.
Worth noting that Trump and several Fox personalities were also defending Putin in recent days.
And who has been saying for weeks that Putin was likely to invade. Oh yes, that would be Biden. Looks like he was right. 🤷♀️
US weakness absolutely contributed to the current military action. The U.S. was energy independent until President Biden ended that as soon as he came into office. Russia is now the fourth largest supplier of oil to the U.S.
Joe Biden deliberately weakened the U.S. and helped fund Russia.
Yes.
Agreed.
When an opponent believes you are weak that’s when
they’ll attack, that’s why it didn’t come as a surprise.
It’s unwanted for sure but unsurprising.
Joe Biden is THE REASON why Putin sent his troops in now. Biden is an inept fool.
🤣 Perfect!
If anyone was the least bit surprised that Putin decided to invade Ukraine, it might be a good time to stop posting your takes on what is happening and spend time reading the thoughts of people who over the past decade or more have been suggesting the likelihood of this happening. There is quite a bit of diversity in the reasoning and political alignment of people that have been predicting this move for years -- and many of them surely have parts of it wrong (everyone is blinded to some degree by their priors and there is a diversity of reasoning) -- but certainly it is worth looking at those diverse analyses to try to understand the situation better.
From reading the posts here on the forum, it strikes me that many treat Putin's (I don't say Russia -- because I don't believe that Putin speaks for most Russians) pretenses and past rhetoric as facts rather than as moves in a long game to control Ukraine -- for whatever reason. It is strange to me that people treat his pretenses and claims with so little skepticism.
Hopefully, the situation will resolve well (whatever that might mean).
Prayers for the Ukrainian people and their safety.
Personal attacks usually signal the imminent closure of a thread. Great job.
He’d be better advised to leave immediately. That goes for any Ukrainian who values their freedom or their life. Putin has fully committed troops and the Russian military to a takeover.
It’s funny how libertarians seem to have a fetish for authoritarians.
The cognitive dissonance must be deafening.
@NeuM said:
Your admiration for Putin is no more shocking that Tucker Carlson's admiration of Putin, as revolting as it is. And the nonsensical drumbeat that Biden's supposed weakness simultaneously exaggerated the threat of invasion that was never going to happen AND caused it — well, I've long given up trying to predict where you'll move the goalposts.
But the utter vulgarity of suggesting that an innocent man who is in the crosshairs of an invasion SHOULD SIMPLY LEAVE HIS HOME IMMEDIATELY because your strongman hero means business? What is wrong with you?
Which makes me very worried about Taiwan. If there was ever a time where China is likely make their move, this is it.
You seem to forget that the Magabilly IS the modern Renaissance man.
They are all constitutional scholars, epidemiologists, and foreign policy experts.
Remember when little rocket man sent the former guy the huge over-sized manila envelope knowing that it would make the short-fingered vulgarian...look even more short-fingered?
Good times.
We saw this coming 20 years ago. I have no idea what everyone was expecting from a man who creates his own term limits.
Apropos… or should I say Appropos…
https://thehill.com/policy/international/595474-madeleine-albright-says-putin-making-historic-mistake?amp
🤣
Since he deftly compared you to an automaton, I don’t think “personal” is the best descriptor in this case.
You’re not the only one with such concerns for sure.
Apparently China have declared that they will not
make any moves on Taiwan at this moment in time.
I personally am not trusting the words of any
of these Leaders, the West included by the way
so all we can do is wait and see.
Still, saying that China have much to lose financially if they do attack Taiwan.
Financially China is sweet right now and I don’t think
they would want nor need to risk that financial security.
If they do move on Taiwan then heavy sanctions will damage that financial security.
China has immense trade with the rest of the world
and I think that will sway the situation favourably against War with Taiwan.
It’s mainly been Russia that has been making noises in regards to War
and now they, as we now know, have followed through.
Has there been sightings of military movement in that area of the world do you know?
There have been reports of military air traffic in the media but non more unusual than
what would normally be happening as the airforces tend to like to play chicken with each other.
A realistic assessment of the situation should never be considered "support". And lying about someone else's motivations is a pathetic line of argumentation.
If anyone here just watched Joe Biden's address to the nation, they saw a toothless invalid speaking. He just said he's going to "wait for a month" to see what happens. Ukraine will be completely overrun by Russian forces in a matter of days or weeks. Biden is an idiot.
There would be a pretty visible build up of forces and resources. China seem as blindsided by the Ukrainian war as everyone else. And seemingly not happy about it.