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In these post-fact days, people, populations of people, really have to let go of the quest for truth and join in the game of mass public opinion, and the current or tide of energy that this brings.
Remember ages ago I suggested (was it in this evil thread or was it in the good thread (now long buried)?) that no matter your political stance, no matter your opinion of the leadership, just get behind it and support it.
There’s several reasons I suggested that. The obvious one is what I suggested at the time, which is that you individually reading this are not in a position to contribute to policy or decision making so don’t waste your energy there, get behind those that are currently in power or shut up. Well, that’s one reason, and if you don’t like it, that’s nevertheless what I suggested.
The other reason is that the opinion of the masses itself stands a very good chance in normal countries of influencing the leadership itself. If the entire public as a whole supports the leadership and wants a thing to happen, that’ll imbue the leadership with that particular accommodation too. If the public is scattered, fragmented and in disagreement, the leadership will simply dismiss the public as ignorant rabble and proceed to do what the hell the leadership wants to do (which in most cases, is not strategic, more tactical, and at worse spurious). A strong tide of public opinion can polarise and energise a proper country’s leadership.
Later, when all this is over, comes the time for criticism and forensics.
For example, it’d be of vague personal interest to discover why the UK has so utterly and amateurishly fucked up any attempt at testing at all. It’s not incompetence, it can’t be – incompetence suggests accidentally doing it correctly about 50% of the time like a coin flip. This is more systemic and institutional than that. Anyway, that’s merely an example. I think the downward decay of the curve (which looks to me to be about 3x or 4x as slow as the attack phase was) is going to be littered with social injustices and obtuseness and confused policing and useless messaging, whereas the attack phase was (relatively) coherent, beneficial where possible, and directed. But when it’s all over, there’ll be some grilling occurring.
@u0421793 : lovely thought but in one country, the ruling politicians ignore the will of the people on a daily basis and the electoral system allows a minority of people (which has become dominated by the need to get votes from anti-science religious fundamentalists and gun rights absolutists) to be the dominant voice.
In the U.S. , the "open the economy now because we don't care if old people and laborers die" forces represent a small minority of citizens. But they are the key constituency (because they are ardently loyal). So their voice has a disproportionate force. They are also scary as heck cuz they carry guns around.
yep... don't work that way in merica!
That would all be fine and dandy if we had a competent government.
But we don’t.
If we had a government with our safety and best interests at heart.
But we don’t.
A government that learned by its mistakes and made sure it didn’t make the same mistakes again.
But we don’t.
So if we say nothing, then nothing will change.
By holding them to account NOW, they will know that their every lie, every mistake, every decision made in their own interests rather than ours is being noted.
NOW.
Not in some vague distant date in the future when the blame has been passed to someone else, or facts have been blurred by time, lies, and gaslighting.
Hold them to account, NOW.
And they might, just might, think twice about acting like the incompetent eejits they are.
He’s our SpearShaker!
Well stated @MonzoPro . Thanks.
Always hold them to account now.
@MonzoPro @Moderndaycompiler
+1, very important to hold the government to account now, I can see @u0421793 point, as this government has tried to present itself as a benevolent party of the people, but there are some really dark and destructive impulses at its heart. When they kept banging on about following the science, then hiding the science from the public and other scientists, I was very suspicious, then I read this and it all made sense, even tho I already had the inkling, seeing it laid bare, man.
https://bylinetimes.com/2020/05/14/whitehall-analytica-the-ai-superstate-part-2-is-covid-19-fast-tracking-a-eugenics-inspired-genomics-programme-in-the-nhs/
Cummings is a thoroughly nasty piece of work, and as a seemingly unelected leader, is pulling all the strings.
This isn’t an issue with the government not giving councils enough money to collect the bins. What they’re doing right now makes the difference between life and death for thousands of people, so we, and the opposition need to be constantly on their backs every step of the way. Exposing, discussing, criticising, and if they’re doing the right things, supporting and encouraging them too.
Today’s news: they’re forcing schools to open in England next month, against teachers and the BMA’s advice, at a time when infections in some regions are still going up.
Stuff like this has to be addressed now, not at a rigged public enquiry in two years time, when the second wave takes out another 50,000 lives.
And in the US: “Unveiling the flag for his new space force in the Oval Office on Friday, Donald Trump said the US was developing a “super duper missile” to outpace military rivals including Russia and China.”
Nooo! Don’t stop the cull now, the population explosion mitigation is well under way, those that remain will have a more sustainable population once large numbers have die… er, I mean, er, yes, we should stop COVID-19 immediately, it’s harmful and bad and we don’t want it, wash your hands, be alert, stay at home, get back to work, wear a mask, don’t forget your hat, brush your teeth, wait in line, shop online.
I’m hesitant to say ‘do it now’ as what we’ll get is a total paralysis and nothing happening, no forward motion at all, no useful action. Just fighting, arguing, defending and posturing. I’d prefer to move in one direction (not the band) and get somewhere, even if it’s not where anyone wants to go. The alternative isn’t usually to correct course to the desirable outcome, it’s usually to dither and do nothing.
The recommended advice, and what has been shown to work in other countries, is a lockdown until infection levels are at a low rate - and outbreaks more maneagable via tracking and testing. That removes pressure from hospitals, and stops people dying.
The downside as we know is hardship and poverty for those already on the breadline, a big financial hit for the UK economy, and a whole range of other side-effects.
Unfortunately, at the moment, that's the best option. But, the side effects could be mitigated by a competent government with OUR best interests at heart, and one that better supports the vulnerable, essential services and businesses.
And to stop putting time and resources into the loony Brexit plan, which will totally finish off the economy at the end of the year, would be a good place to start.
In a few months time there should be better testing and treatment available. Maybe even hope of a vaccine. So if the government keeps its nerve and gets the infection rate down, we could avoid a potentially devastating second wave. And of course thousands of people with long-term health issues as a result of their infection needing hospital care.
Obviously that's not going to happen, because right-wing pressure groups want to get the plebs back to work, even if it kills us.
I think that in the UK, the data mining ghoul squad have done their calculations and come up with a number of deaths that the people they rely on for continued hold of power will not be perturbed by. They can then let that play out, plus use the pandemic as cover for their brexit no deal nonsense and skip home happy to the bank foot the next four years, whereupon they revert to ‘we fixed the economy when Labour broke it’ line and pop goes the weasel as they say...
I know this is a topic to vent your frustration but as far as the UK is concerned I do think the politically prejudiced frequent posters need a bit of perspective.
I do think that whatever government is “in charge” is between a rock and hard space. I have no real liking for any party or current politician but lets make a few comments more balanced and realistic.
For instance:
Schools: Why are teachers any more at risk than, say, public transport staff.? We are talking about three year classes of primary/Junior children going back to school - spaced out 15 to a class with a choice of half or full day. Remember teachers have not been furloughed, they enjoy a protected full salary which adds some meat to their objetions. Children of essential staff have continued to go to school throughout where no child care is available without fuss.
Care Homes: Some 80% of all UK care homes are privately owned and assessed by local authories - nothing to do the whatever goverment is in power. So, you have a variety of hygiene/management etc. A lot still haved shared toilers, for instance. Who do you think introduced the virus into care homes? However brilliant the staff they are the only ones who come and go every day. Do the care home owners care about staff welfare, procuring supplies etc.?
Doctors: Surely they have the ethical decision on whether a patient lives or dies.
PPE: I agree Government procurement has been a shambles for a variety of agreed reasons. But what country stockpiles emergency equipment to cater for whatever emergency? Did your household always keep hoards of toilet rolls in the cupboard on the off- chance of a shortage one day?
Now, I agree the UK gov has a lot of questions to answer. I wish it would acknowledge/admit to, and apologise for, obvious shortcomings etc. I mean, why didn’t we shut down earlier, close our borders etc. But I reckon any party in control would find themselves in the same position.
You have to make a start sometime for this country to get started again. I think we all have a duty to demonstrate a bit of common sense and responsibility now.
It is so easy to argue, postulate, criticise etc - especially to make political capital and vent personal views which are so obviously one-sided.
That is my rant. I hate the UK being portrayed as challenging the US for bottom place in any virus effective league table. The prospect of closer links materialising with the US over potential trade links post Brexit is bad enough.
I think one of the things buried in the debate around schools reopening isn’t the immediate danger to either children or their teachers is that schools could be a nexus for a sudden increase in infections.
Having said that, I do think they’ve modelled politically acceptable numbers of deaths, basically anything that keeps them from having pictures of overwhelmed hospitals in circulation and they’re happy...
A brave attempt at defending the indefensible there. As to your last point, that’s already happening.
I’ll just respond to one of the most important statements you’ve made:
“But what country stockpiles emergency equipment to cater for whatever emergency? Did your household always keep hoards of toilet rolls in the cupboard on the off- chance of a shortage one day?”
There was a thing called Exercise Cygnus, carried out a few years ago, which provided comprehensive data that showed the UK was seriously unprepared for a pandemic, and tens of thousands or more would die as a result.
It provided a range of recommendations that would avert such a crisis.
Those recommendations were ignored, and so, here we are today - one of the richest Nations on the planet, with the second highest number of deaths.
IT IS THE GOVERNMENTS JOB, to spend the money we give them in taxes in our best interests - not theirs, to ensure our safety and well-being. They have failed to do this, and people have died unnecessarily as a result. They have not done their job, and they have blood on their hands.
This is a bit more serious than stocking up with toilet rolls.
Prior to Exercise Cygnus there was Exercise Winter Willow. The thing is, this sort of exercise focused on Influenza A types, because that was the recent experience (the 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic, which was saved quite effectively from getting worse partly by effective awareness and action, partly because the 2009 A(H1N1) turned out to be not as lethal as feared). But the patterns, waves, effects of Influenza A are not quite the same as a SARS/MERS type of coronavirus, and there’s no reason why we should get a replica of the 1st 2nd 3rd wave graph we’ve all seen from 1919. The modelling of a coronavirus outbreak was done in Event 201. However, that was a desktop exercise, where experts gathered and modelled it at a table. This produces something, but is very fragile in that it can only take into account responses of experts that are ‘known’, and also suffers bias from estimation and assumption all along the way. The modelling here and elsewhere in the world was merely modelling – there’s so much unknown about it that the model can only be blunt whilst also becoming rapidly obsolete. That’s models.
Any kind of management involves forming a plan (based on expert guessing); executing the plan; monitoring the progress on the ground; effecting change management to bring the progress toward the plan. That’s normal life. Here, the plan shifts in scope, direction and objective, too. Everything changes dynamically. Nothing is truly known. Nobody knows what to do next.
I must say, though, this is very good practice for what happens when the ‘big one’ happens (which I would still estimate to be an accidental release of a chimerical A(H5N1) with high lethality and human->human transmission. That’ll take out far more of the population and run far quicker, and could happen.
It’s also a very good indication of the absolute shit we’ll be in if aliens land and start doing things.
Each country would hem itself in and act alone. Each country would think it alone has the key to the situation. Each country would distrust all the others. It’d be like what just happened, only far worse, and embarrassing.
Lol no offence intended but ask any teacher how realistic it is to get Primary School kids to do Social Distancing. They need hugs/changing/wiping etc and they don't understand the need to stay apart from their classmates or their teachers. If it was about educational need they'd be starting with the oldest kids only who are more impacted by missing lessons (formal education doesn't start until the age of 7 in most European countries) and who are more capable of understating Social Distancing. But the younger kids can't be left at home can they? So teachers are expected to accept being collateral damage in order to provide a babysitting service for the youngest children so that their parents can go back to work. Policy is clearly being largely driven primarily by economic rather than health considerations...
The “new normal”
Children at a primary school in France playing alone in chalk ‘isolation zones’ to maintain social distancing
@charalew......no offence taken. While I agree teachers’ health is paramount you have to draw the line somewhere at this stage. Safety measures are being taken. Children pose little risk really. Union postulating on this score is a bit pathetic.
Surely, the damage to our children having five months in isolation has to come into the reckoning -especially at primary school age.
I assume you are a teacher. I am a parent of two primary school head teachers , but can understand both sides.
We have to make some decisions at some stage to get back to normal life -or at least adjusted life. Waiting for a vaccine while carrying on as we are now is totally unrealistic.
Covid can be beaten. The U.s. and U.K. governments simply have no interest in following the examples of the countries that have done for reasons probably connected to trying to maintain the support of the loyal ardent science-skeptics and admitting that other countries did things to emulate.
I think it’s the wider community that could be affected while the transmission rate is still so high, it’s already climbed over the last week reflecting the self directed I’ll unlockdown that’s been happening the last few weeks. What’s quite troubling with this government is that the decisions they are making seem to both line up with their stated policy intentions as well as merely be reactive rather than proactive. The prime minister’s decision to unilaterally preempt notions of opening up reflect his own sense of inadequacy and inability to properly mediate between private interests of his party and those of the country.
We will see how this pans out but I’m firmly of the opinion that it’s been calibrated to be acceptable to those they need to stay in power and hang the consequences, they’re skilled at avoiding those for sure...
My suspicion is that it’s a test, an experiment, to see if we can just abandon any measures and go back to normal. If it turns out we can, and there’s no appreciable increase in cases, deaths, R and other numbers other than a slight blip, we go ahead and secretly go back to normal while doing the stay alert stuff. If it turns out we can’t because the numbers aren’t a slight blip but a definite return to upward and even more upward, then we go back to what we were doing all of April+ and the stay alert message switches to stay at home. I think it’s basically taste it and see – it might go down, it might go up. At least this way people have had a bit of freedom, bit of pretending to go back to work, and a bit of shopping for things other than food. Before the next months-long quarantine.
That’s also plausible 👍
During the U.K. "lockdown" are people required to wear masks?
What activities and businesses are exempt?
In the U.S., the minority that oppose the lockdown are primarily NOT the people most at risk when forced back to work. (I.e. They aren't people that will be forced to work indoors in close proximity to others).
p.s. Anyone who only looks at their own likelihood of dying from catching the virus needs to read up on what like is like if you are in that group that ends up hospitalized but not dead.
That’s a joke? Right?
Children can pick up the virus just as easily as anyone else. And while they don’t have the same severity of symptoms (aside from the new nasty mutation that’s started killing kids), they can pass it on to others just the same.
So. Little Jimmy who’s picked it up from his delivery driver dad, coughs in the corridor, and the droplets picked up by little Johnny.
Little Johnny goes home, develops no symptoms but still carries the disease, passes it on to his dad, a bus driver with diabetes.
Dad passes it around for a week to his passengers before becoming critically ill.
Etc.
This is what I’ve been trying to say, it seems that the debate is being framed around just the kids, or the teachers, or the parents. But it’s the massive increase in cross infection that will be the trouble, even the Unions aren’t framing it properly, never mind the constant media chatter...
Btw, the syndrome experienced by kids is probably not due to a new mutation. So far, epidemiologists and virologists have mostly remained skeptical that any of the lineages of the virus are functionally different in a significant way. The suggestion has been that it has taken a large number of infections for low-likelihood outcomes to have occurred in large enough numbers to be noticed.
Worse thing about this is, if we would of gone into lockdown a week or two earlier, had the testing, contact tracing and cluster tracing, restricted air travel and properly sealed and protected care homes, provided adequate ppe, for all essential workers, we would of been out of quarantine by now. Quite a few people on this forum, were suggesting all of the above, for as long as these pandemic threads have been up.
The government we have now, isn’t interested in governing, mainly distracted by reshaping society for the benefit of their true constituents, many of whom don’t even live here. The response to this pandemic for me just exposes this, mixed messaging, massive porkies, not seeking help from specialists, wasting money on massive pr exercises, like the understaffed nightingale hospitals. While handing over responsibilities well suited to the nhs, to the private sector, many conflicts of interest, preventing an adequate response.