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First mountains are mountains.
Then mountains are not mountains.
Then mountains are mountains again.
(Attributed to Ch’an master Ch’ing-yuan)
I don't think people are looking for a don't-rock-the-boat-let's-preserve-the-status-quo type of candidate right now. Biden is a liability. He's about the worst person you could pick to run against Trump, and he will struggle to get voters out to the polls.
And Trump voters are very enthusiastic in their support for him, they will definitely get out and vote.
Are you judging all this based on what you read in the press? I suspect that the dynamics of American politics are hard to accurately gauge based on reporting so far — particularly since political writers often have their own axes to grind and poor understanding of statistics. It is certainly possible (given our strange way of electing the president) that Trump will win, but Trump did not turn out a huge number of voters on 2016...remember he got 3 million less votes than Hillary Clinton.
Trump does have a huge structural advantage in that incumbency is a huge advantage and the right-leaning of our Federal judiciary may work in service of the GOP’s voter suppression tactics. He also may manage to use the pandemic to his advantage if (as many expect) the pandemic surges again in the Fall.
I think anyone predicting now who will be able to turn out voters is probably speaking more about personal preferences than anything else. Biden actually turned out quite a lot of voters during the primaries. Was he my preferred candidate? No. But he has the respect of a lot of voters. Let’s wait till the campaign has actually started to judge his candidacy.
@kobamoto
I just have to say, your posts are the best part of this venting thread. We don’t agree on anything but your writing regularly causes me to laugh out loud. Too many to quote but the “gaping hole from in the mouth of madness monster” was a riot.
Hey, don’t knock Boris, as the head of our herd, he is our prize bull, we know this because he’s so full of it. With all the money he’s been splashing around we even think he’s turned red. So, as the ad goes, red bull gives you wings, well that’s only what he trying to do for that special 10% of his beloved herd. Amen.
Yet the poorest in America are perishing in droves and this division is so clearly black and white.
I think Biden's a poor choice, but I have yet to be convinced he's a bad choice
There's a long, long way to go before November 3rd.
It's going to be long six months
And I feel certain there will be something significant we haven't yet thought of between here and there (beyond the usual October Surprise...)
More unsettling than the political suicide of nations, is how easily, this virus, species jumps, reportedly to several cats in the Bronx zoo, this may be because the ‘cat family’ has already hosted this virus, but mutations when viruses jump species can lead to more dangerous strains.
The GOP just did a test run of using the pandemic to disrupt voting in their favor. An Autumn resurgence of the pandemic in even just a few key states could hand the election to Trump.
Keep calm, carry on etc. Eschew paranoia. But then they do call me Candide at home here...
Never trust /vote for a man who stops Doctors who are in charge of fighting an epidemic from communicating while in the middle of an public update on said epidemic during a pandemic.
Personally I think the democrats have blown it bigly, they had a chance at a warren and bernie sandwich, could of re-aligned american and by extension world politics for a generation or two, like the new deal era. Supercharged democracy by sorting out most of the vote manipulation, mainly by republicans granted, establishment dems however are no saints in this regard, as the exit polls for both warren and bernie, compared to primary vote totals make clear.
Two aces with very little personal dirt for the republican operatives to dig up and behavioural specialists to make hay of, like female pigs rummaging for truffles, get replaced by safe (feely) hands, establishment joe, covered in juicy filth and dripping with entitlement. Who gets sold as the nostalgia ticket, for lily livered boomers and emotionally senile gen Xers who just want to return to a time before the 80’s tan man set fire to the illusion of the everything is fine, so long as I’m not being buggered world view.
Thing that hurts me deeply in all this, which might seem strange, bernard and liz represented a return to form for the boomers, that inspired the get up off your knees, we have work to do mentality, but first we punch the oligarchs in the nuts, put them on notice, rekindled, sort of ending fit for these old fruits, out on a bang. Instead we have strange uncle joe and mad king donald representing a sad, flappy, flatulent based whimper, set to bright white dentures and yellow hair pieces, exit stage right.
Testament to a generation that came so close to changing things profoundly and toppling a corrupt system, only to have the system, feeling threatened go apeshit on them and by the 80’s reduced and demoralised the poor souls so badly, women started wearing shoulder pads, men thought mullets and jheri curls looked stylish and many flocked to religious establishments, run by pimps and hustlers, so sad.
I agree that it's going to be a very long summer, politically speaking, and of course it's impossible to predict the twists and turns ahead.
I tend to get my current affairs fix by following a variety of Twitter accounts from all over the political spectrum, left and right, the opposite of an echo chamber, to try and get a bird's eye view of things. And it's very clear that the American right is united behind Trump, there is very little dissent there. Add to that that he has an enthusiastic base, who seem to live in an alternate reality where facts really don't matter and any criticism of the Dear Leader is Fake News From A Biased Media, and you end up with a committed bloc of people who will support Trump no matter what.
It's not the same on the left. The left is united in its criticism of Trump, that goes without saying, but enthusiasm for Biden is lukewarm at best. The narrative that he's going senile is gaining ground all across the political spectrum (and not just the right), and his recent car-crash interviews aren't helping. Joe Rogan got some pushback for saying out loud what many people are thinking, which is that Biden is not up to the job. And the people who then called Rogan a racist bigot etc (which he's clearly not) are missing the point: Biden just isn't an inspiring leader and in these kinds of contests personality matters a lot.
No-one knows how the next few months will play out. The Trump administration is a shitshow of nepotism and incompetence: people are hired if they're nice to the president, anyone critical is silenced or fired. This is not a healthy way to run an organisation, problems will just be ignored because no-one wants to be the bearer of bad news that might hurt poll ratings, it's the definition of disfunction. The handling of the pandemic is certain to be terrible. But the one thing they are good at is messaging and controlling the narrative, and that they will do relentlessly, aided of course by their friends in the media and social platforms.
Maybe the situation will get so bad that independents turn against Trump, like they did against Bush after Katrina. That's definitely possible.
Maybe Trump will be tempted to reopen the economy too soon, or to bungle the transition. Another definite possibility.
But maybe the social distancing works, and the death toll is lower than predicted (an outcome obviously to be desired), in which case you can count on the right-wing ghouls shouting that the whole thing was overblown by a biased media, and that Trump did a great job (despite all evidence to the contrary).
Of course the big unknown is what happens when the virus really hits the red states, which it will. The situation in New York is very likely to be repeated in other states. It's going to be a long summer for sure.
In my opinion:
There needs to be a kind of organisation that oversees the health of the world. A world-level organisation responsible for health. A health type of organisation that has powers across the world. I’ve absolutely no idea what we’d call such a thing, I think the obvious acronym might already be taken by an existing body which is not relevant in the setting I describe. This future organisation must have independence, be ‘un-gameable’ by any individual nation or player, be concerned only with the health security of not only the human race but all of life on earth, and must have powers to override any or all individual nation’s efforts or opinions of courses of action. I would suggest it be based on AI (hopefully a bit more than a spreadsheet) so that it becomes divorced from the personality of any individual or group of actual humans in charge.
I also think that we aren’t anywhere near the end of the SARS-CoV-2 adventure, in fact, not even near the end of the beginning. With no vaccine (and it’s entirely possible we never get to a vaccine in our lifetimes, although we’re all hoping we develop at least one) all we can do is quarantine and isolate. As people start to get fed up with that, civil disobedience will erode that effort, and so as we pass a peak and a decline in numbers we’re soon back to another rising peak and therefore another quarantine period, only more enforced this time. This is likely to go on and on for several years. We also don’t know for sure if people who have had Covid-19 but not severely have enough antibody titer to actually effect any immunity at all, therefore it may show that people can get reinfected, on and on for years until most people are dead eventually one way or another. The peaks and troughs and the next peaks etc might only go on for two, three successive waves, but this is only a guess based on Influenza A patterns. This is entirely novel and works in quite surprising ways, so we can’t assume there’s a limited succession of peaks and troughs, it could go on for many years.
Ultimately, there’s no wisdom whatsoever in trying to protect any economy. In my opinion, the best strategy (given the worst-case in the above para) is to abandon what economy each nation state currently has, use it up wear it out in trying to benefit the people as things currently stand and assume we’re all going to be dead within a few years. If this proves not to be the case, new economies will evolve in our new way of life. If the worst case proves to be the case, I think still new economies will spring up and sustain what survivors there are in our highly restricted isolated ways of life. Some countries will simply not survive and will become dead, others will have an amount of survivorship and those will forge economies ahead. Obviously we’d be in a mixture of medieval and postmodern, so a very different air travel industry, a very different telecommunications industry, food industry, etc. Lots of areas that were relegated to free trade and ‘the market’ will now be recognised as too risky to allow that to happen, so will be brought under the auspices of an overall world management layer, for health, ecology and disaster management.
At that point, I think we could even handle an alien landing without too much embarrassment.
They're as effective as the UN in Bosnia.
Well, that’s the first step to rectify, obviously. Shouldn’t take long, then we proceed with the proper work.
@richardyot : if you get your sense of how people feel about politics from Twitter, you are getting a statistically unrepresentative sample. Twitter’s users are not a statistically meaningful population as there is a strong self selection. Hence, you miss out on the thoughts/feelings of a huge portion of the population. If you dig, you can find some good analysis of this.
Yeah I'm not claiming I have a perfect representation of reality (who does?), just a cross-section of opinion.
Unfortunately, it'll take a miracle for Trump not to be re-"elected".