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I would like to go on the paltry record here on April 9th that I expect the next six months to be a shit storm of unsubtle bollocks with at least one if not more absolutely upside-down moments full of game-changing possibilities, but I remain optimistic as regards this being a one-term presidency.
My point is that it sounds like you are extrapolating degree of voter enthusiasm from degree of Twitter enthusiasm. Twitter is so unrepresentative that you really miss out on the huge number of people who find Biden much more appealing than, for instance, Bernie Sanders. Sanders' and Warren and AOC whose political leanings are generally closer to mine than Biden's just happen to have more enthusiastic support from the sort of people that spend time on Twitter than Biden -- but that doesn't carry over to the general population in the least. Twitter engagement is so unrepresentative that you probably wouldn't know that overall Sanders did not turn out significantly more voters in this primary bid than he did in 2016. So, the belief that he would turn out a lot more young voters in the general election doesn't seem supported by evidence. I am definitely not Biden's demographic, but when I talk to people I know that vote regularly but aren't super engaged their take is radically different from mine or the twitterati.
You might get exposed to a lot of different view on Twitter -- but one can't get a sense on Twitter of how those map to the electorate.
I think you're getting bogged down in the Twitter aspect of my post
I totally understand that Twitter is not representative of the real world, but Twitter is very good at catering to specific ideological niches - and this is what makes it interesting. You can get an overview of very different political leanings and political analyses, some of which can be pretty insightful, and it's a good way to get exposed to different points of view.
As a counterpoint, many people I know get most of their information from the Guardian or the BBC (in the US the equivalent would be the New York Times). That leads to a very homogenous worldview, bordering on groupthink in fact, where only certain orthodox viewpoints are credible. In this world, things like Brexit and Trump are unthinkable - whereas in Twitterland they are not, as long as you don't stay in your ideological bubble that is.
So once again: Twitter is not the real world, but it's useful way of staying in touch with differing perspectives and points of view.
When it comes to Biden, I understand why he won the primary: he had more votes, he lead Sanders in the polls etc, and I'm not disputing those facts. I'm just using my own eyes, ears (and yes, gut feeling), and he's going to be a terrible candidate IMO. I may well be wrong, so feel free to disagree, but his current rambling performances are not encouraging. 😬
When one lies, one should lie big, and stick to it.
The essential English leadership secret does not depend on particular intelligence. Rather, it depends on a remarkably stupid thick-headedness. The English follow the principle that when one lies, one should lie big, and stick to it. They keep up their lies, even at the risk of looking ridiculous.
-Joseph Goebbels, Nazi, Hitler's right-hand man, in his article "From Churchill's Lie Factory."
Also, große Lüge from Satan himself.
Never to admit a fault or wrong; never to accept blame; concentrate on one enemy at a time; blame that enemy for everything that goes wrong; take advantage of every opportunity to raise a political whirlwind
-Henry A. Murray, 1943, Analysis of the Personality of Adolph Hitler
Trump will just offer Americans a return to work, they will except.
exactly.
I'm sayin!!!
He's going to convince his cult that he did everything he could but "shit happens".
He will get back to Making America Great and diverting finds to the right places to insure re-election. He has $2T to play with without oversight.
This is NOT a test. This is an emergency. Democracy with open elections can select management. Democracies with rigged elections are yet another PR challenge.
The virus will still be issue's #1 in November. PR can't cover a massive pile of shit and
dead loved ones... throw in a mountain of personal debt, job insecurity, foreclosures
and healthcare bills that bankrupt anyone that had savings and felt protected.
Some things are bigger than any single issues. The challenges facing us are going to need
really honest smart leadership to manage. But I could be dreaming. The cult may offer a
a solution to feeling powerless... a fake solution... but credible none the less.
Every path has costs and consequences. "Madness" is a reasonable assessment... been goin' on for quite some time. (Seriously). It's a bitch being the smartest person in the room, huh?
I have admired your work here on this and many other topics for your brevity, clarity and astute observations.
Keep at it.
im here in Oklahoma and while the two big cities are on shelter in place, state is wide open with a gentle suggestion that the elderly stay home.
We'd make the gentle suggestion
that the elderly stay at home
but if you've either one of them
I'd stay close to your phone.
We're sure that this unpleasantness
will soon float farther West
but if your mother starts to cough
have her wear another vest.
We would also much encourage them
to tune to Channel Five
where the President will shortly
share his wisdom with us live.
Please desist from kissing
unless she's a family member
and make sure you vote and often
in the right way come November...
Nothing, IMO, could injure Trump’s re-election prospects more than this crisis. History shows us that people give credit or blame to the president where their own well being is inflated or deflated. No way the US economy will come roaring back. Check out Wuhan. Not much happening there even tho the lockdown has been eased. Will you feel comfortable on a public conveyance, in a restaurant, at a sports event, in an airport until you have had it or a vaccine is in your veins? It takes a while for people to get scared and takes even longer for them to get unscared. This is bad news for the trumpnik and a silver lining in an increasingly grey cloud.
Sadly, history doesn’t teach us that lesson. Bush and Nixon (Nixon by a landslide) were re-elected during disastrous wars. Trump only needs 45% of the popular vote to be re-elected if it is in the rights states. If there is a fall surge in the pandemic, R’s will use it to their advantage as they just did in WI. The ongoing voter suppression tactics of GOP are unchallenged. SCOTUS will rubber-stamp infringements of the right to vote. A little suppression goes a long way. Trump is defeatable but I think the pandemic actually makes it harder in spite of Trump’s obvious bungling. 45% of the country is made up of true believers.
@espiegel123, I respectfully disagree. Wars on foreign soil are not the same as a bad economy.
Lock in kids. Fear and Loathing indeed. Miss HST about now...
The GOP true believers may well choose to believe that their enemies are the cause. The GOP will spend lavishly to give their base the sense that they are doing everything to save them from the scourge of internationalism and Democrats. I hope they fail but the GOP holds a lot of cards.
Agreed. Admittedly I don’t watch all the briefings here in the UK, but I haven’t heard them once boast about how well they’re handling it. It’s really not a useful thing to boast at any point - surely the facts should be allowed to speak for themselves, good or bad.
We do have the patronising wartime speak going on here, as if we’re hiding from a bombing raid. Viruses and armies are very different things.
It was suggested by Gove that the Great British Spirit would get us through, as if we have a better spirit than any other country that somehow gives us an advantage 🤷♂️. He’s a twat.
What’s the dialog like in Germany?
Critical information for "snacking in place" without eating the whole bag:
@espiegel123, try not to be disheartened. Many swing voters who voted for Trump will not do so again. Ditto many farmers, military, suburban women etc. and I believe his base will erode when they lose loved ones and when they are out of work. Just what I think.
All it takes is just a couple of states and it doesn't matter what the majority want. In many ways, voting almost isn't worth the effort in several states because it makes no difference, because a couple of other states decide the fate of the country - and they're typically Republican states. That's how awesome our republic is... and why the Republicans are terrified of ANY changes AT ALL (at least those that don't further disenfranchise people and keep "the wrong type of people" from voting - those are OK, of course).
A person in CA is worth probably 1/16th of a person in Kansas, I bet, where cows outnumber humans, thanks to the Electoral Theft College.
What an utterly fucking embarrassing thread. It only took thirty seconds before the entire thread was ORANGE MAN BAD and Trump is responsible for the global pandemic! and Trump supporters are total retards! I have a degree in microbiology from a UC. This doesn’t make me smarter or better informed than anyone in this thread but it does mean I have an idea of what I’m talking about and have spent countless boring hours studying this shit. No global pandemic will ever be “properly” responded to in the public’s opinion when people dying is involved. Yet this one is being responded to and handled well according to not only me and many professionals but almost every former professor who I am still in touch with.
Trump imposes a travel ban and he’s xenophobic. Then he didn’t do enough because he didn’t impose a travel ban sooner. Then it’s his fault because X and then it’s his fault because Y. I’m not even a Trump supporter yet I’m defending him because of utter fucking idiocy like this thread. I’ve lost total respect for this community and the total lack of openness toward conversation that has been replaced by pointless side taking and misinformed blaming and name calling. Seriously embarrassing reading through this shit.
I think the reason that Trump is being criticised is because he spent two months downplaying the threat of the virus. You know, the "as if by magic it will just disappear one day" stuff - remember that?