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It’ll never end. It’ll keep flaring up as soon as it goes down a bit and everyone starts wandering around again, until everybody has been through it and either died or survived. If the immunity of those that survived turns out to be not enough to fend off another bout of it, then those too will either die or survive again. And so on until everyone’s dead throughout the entire world.
But on the plus side, that means we don’t have to worry about being wiped out by a meteor. Unless that also happens, which would be jolly bad luck.
We will be praying for the meteor, because we will all be nuts.
For the love of Zardoz!
Do you mean safely? That article that I posted ages ago seems to have held up as the overall method to do it safely -- it is what South Korea and few other countries have done. First thing you need before you do anything, is have comprehensive free testing available and to test the heck out of the population on an ongoing basis.
Once you have enough testing in place to determine that your tranmission index (Rt) is well below 1 and you have ability to sustain testing and have a number of new cases low enough to do contact tracing, you can ease up on lockdowns (but making sure people are maintaining social distancing -- and also limiting crowds) and have anyone that is infected or has come into contact with an infected person quarantine.
You need to have large scale quick turnound testing so that you can detect increased transmission quickly so that you can have localized small-scale quarantines.
You need the personnel and infrastructure to do extensive contact tracing.
With just a little searching, you will find more detailed white papers by epidemiologists.
As we learn more about the virus, there will be further refinements.
One theme among epidemiologists and public health folks is that it is important to avoid a replay of what we have just experienced. Large scale outbreaks besides having an immediate costly toll on lives and the economy also change the long-term outlook for the virus because the more infections you have, the more likely it is that you will get a mutation that changes it in a way that make combatting it harder.
If effective treatments come along that increases the ability to tolerate somewhat more transmission than with the situation now.
In waves... periodic cycles. Oscilating. Yo-Yo'ing.
We are going to yo-yo between carelessness and precaution until there is a remedy.
Hopefully it doesn't re-infect in numbers high even to ave multiple series of infection waves.
I suspect most people will get it, move forward and there will always be massive use of health services for those severely impacted and people will adapt to a new normal.
If you don't already: please take 25mcg (or 2000 IU's) of Vitamin D to improve your odds.
Sounds like you've been watching (or at least are agreeing) with our friend Doctor John.
I start every day watching the Dr. John Campbell, PhD Nurse: Great TV show name.
We really should say medical doctor or maybe med-doc and give all those PhD's more
respect for their efforts. I'm they put the Dr. title away after the first year or 2.
Do we have any PhD's here?
I wonder if there was any correlation between the timing of Trump and Hannity falling out of love with Dr. Fauci and Dr. Fauci starting to basically say that black lives matter in his public addresses hmmm , might the good doctor have simply gone too far?
GPOY
wow, that was a judicious level of propaganda Mr. President... definitely gangsta
good idea @McD to direct this energy into this realm/thread. A very wise decision, at the right point in time, at the right place. Congratulaton. Well done.
Trump has been prickly towards Fauci since day 1 -- and Fauci has done his darndest not to alienate Trump (a difficult task given Trump's lack of interest in consensus reality). With the "task force" Trump announced for opening up the country containing no public health experts or epidemiologists, let's pray that Fauci somehow manages to stick around.
I just read that California, Oregon and Washington State have agreed upon a framework for dealing with the pandemic as a region with guidelines for how to open things up and outlining the steps necessary to do that. I guess it goes public tomorrow. It will be interesting to see.
It might put some pressure on some other regions to come up with public medium-term plans and procedures.
Trump wants to rev the economy back up for his real supporters with large portfolios.
Dr. Fauci wants to focus on having human lives and avoiding high R-naughts.
The loss is the DOW and the potential to loose an election is what drives Trump and why he'd like to put Dr. Fauci on a bus to Nicaragua with proper medication for the trip.
They have different critical success factors at play.
State governors don’t have any control over travel to the U.S. That’s the responsibility of the Dept. of Homeland Security.
Ugh! I was just reading the transcript of today's Trump press conference. He is setting up an ugly conflict with the governors -- who just happen to be the people who put things in place to mitigate the disaster when Trump was still saying that this was no big deal. The text is a little scary: full of veiled threats for governors that resist opening up according to his timeline.
This sounds like it is aimed at the governors or California, Oregon and Washington who are unveiling their concrete plans tomorrow for moving forward as a region.
McD: R-naught is different from Rt. Rt is the number to watch. R0 is a number that gives a sense of how transmissible a particular disease is and is static. The number to watch is Rt which tells you about the actual transmission rate. Here is a good explainer: https://qz.com/1834700/rt-the-real-time-r0-guiding-how-to-lift-coronavirus-lockdowns/
Thanks for the heads up.
Ok folks. Rough ride ahead. Trump just said on national TV: " “When somebody is President of the United States, his authority is total.”
Anyone that knows the U.S. constitution knows that this is not even remotely true. It will be interesting to see if those that call themselves conservatives in the U.S. -- a group that has always been hostile to what they call federal overreach -- finally realize that Trump and the GOP have given up the pretense of being the party they claimed to be for the past 100 years-ish.
Trump being orange is the only thing about him that doesn't matter.
yep, and his corny support base is still out there claiming that conservative privilege doesn't exist.... If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck then it's obviously an aspiring despot..
trust me if Fuhrer Trump was dancing naked in the rain people would not be talking about the wig lol
>
Combined with “I take no responsibility,” it’s quite a claim.
All hail King Trump!
On a side note, this must be one reason all his businesses seem to fail eventually. He has total authority, which means sooner or later his incompetence will destroy things, and then accepts no responsibility, filing for bankruptcy so he can do it again.