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OT: Vent About Global Pandemic Management *HERE*

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Comments

  • @Max23 said:

    @espiegel123 said:
    An interesting thread by an epidemiologist discussing meaningful ways of comparing spread through regions/countries. It sheds some light on some of the issues recently discussed.

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1249930293928030209.html

    He is dividing tru population
    That makes everything so vague that it doesn’t say anything anymore

    @max23: he is an expert. The bottom line is that you can’t pick numbers based on arbitrary designations. It makes no sense to simply compare numbers from countries. It isn’t vague. He is trying to clue people in to ways of making meaningful comparisons.

    You keep picking numbers to compare that aren’t very meaningful.

    If you want to compare a big non-homogenous region like the U.S. it makes no sense to compare its totals to small regions elsewhere. You need to find a meaningful aggregate to compare it to. Otherwise you are making meaningless comparisons.

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  • @Max23 said:

    @espiegel123 said:

    @Max23 said:

    @espiegel123 said:
    @Max23 : the way you talk about the danger of traveling to the U.S. reiterates your misunderstanding of the diversity, geography and politics of the U.S. as well as the situation here with regards to the epidemic. Large parts of the U.S. are doing better than even Germany. Much of Europe is handling the epidemic as badly as the worst regions in the U.S.

    The U.S. is huge with distinct regions whose autonomy and economies are more akin to European countries than to what you think of as states.

    You might want to lighten up on ridiculing nations for their disastrous electoral decisions. The sh-tshow here (and no question it is one) is no comparison to one in Germany that took the lives of far more people than will die in the epidemic.

    dont bore me with history. the past is the past and now is now.

    the fact you forget you don't see in the numbers is that the virus has been much longer around in EU heavily
    and america didnt learn any lessons from it ;)

    Didn’t learn any lessons? California is doing even better than Germany. Our first cases occurred within a day or two.

    @max23: You keep repeating that the virus has been in Germany longer than the U.S. As I have pointed it out to you at least once: the first case in California occurred within a day or two of the first case in Germany.

    You repeatedly say things like “America didn’t learn”.

    You seem to be unaware that the U.S. is large with fairly autonomous regions the size of European countries...and economies of that scale, too.

    America is like Europe. Part of America DID learn. LARGE parts. And responded reasonably wisely.

    Your repeated attempt to make it sound like all of the U.S. is a disaster which is simply wrong. The West Coast of the U.S. has done well. We’ve had the virus here as long as it has been in Germany and and have fewer cases and deaths. There are European countries doing much more poorly.

    Btw, California is not some isolated little region. It’s economy is larger than any European country’s except Germany’s.

    The U.S. is not centralized like European countries. And it is large. You are simply wrong to act like the U.S. is homogenous and failing universally.

    Get your facts straight.

    it is a disaster, look at the numbers

    is that a Max4Live Device?

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  • there's only one way to beat this virus, don't be like Trump be like Cade Foster if you wanna survive the first wave.

  • A mortality rate of around 1% would be a disaster, WHO says test, test, test....so where are all the test kits to do this, exiting lockdown without extreme surveillance and testing or a vaccine, good luck.

  • @kobamoto said:

    @waterdrop said:
    Americans are amazing people. with one foot standing in the grave you do not stop trying to bite your neighbor. I see how the last words before the death of some guys will be: Trump sucks or America first or chinese and russians are to blame .
    Jim was right : strange days.

    :) nothing wrong with letting your last words be the truth... besides you wouldn't want future generations thinking this was all a hoax

    bro, stay the same, I see in you only love for the world. it’s just important now. this fucking virus will go away and we will all again be face to face with people who are essentially mirrors.

  • @waterdrop said:

    @kobamoto said:

    @waterdrop said:
    Americans are amazing people. with one foot standing in the grave you do not stop trying to bite your neighbor. I see how the last words before the death of some guys will be: Trump sucks or America first or chinese and russians are to blame .
    Jim was right : strange days.

    :) nothing wrong with letting your last words be the truth... besides you wouldn't want future generations thinking this was all a hoax

    bro, stay the same, I see in you only love for the world. it’s just important now. this fucking virus will go away and we will all again be face to face with people who are essentially mirrors.

    I hope you're right, if not they'll be no one to make all of the beat machines and no one to play them and we can't have that

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  • I must point out that this isn’t a pissing contest for numbers, whichever country has the quickest highest cull rate, and whichever doesn’t will become meaningless as the pandemic goes on – when we discover that those countries that have opened up again will simply lay the table for a fresh epidemic to catch those that survived the first time round, and so on.

    Once the top economic countries have sat back and considered they’ve handled it for now, the attention must turn to those countries that are not handling it and need help. I’m keeping my eyes on Russia, because they’re a lot bigger than we are, or our nearby neighbours in Europe (which is big). As countries go, the logistics of uniformly handling a pandemic in a big country like that must be unparalleled. I can’t think of any other countries as big as Russia. Maybe Canada. Not many others that I’m aware of, though (Australia doesn’t count as a big country because only the coasts are populated). Africa of course isn’t a country, it’s many many countries.

  • Torys in the uk are certainly having their humanity tested right now. My guess is they won’t turn their loyalty until they lose a loved one.

    Those that stay loyal are beyond help.

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  • @vitocorleone123 said:

    @fritzm said:

    @vitocorleone123 said:

    @fritzm said:
    Trump bashing gets very old and tired, to me. It is naive to believe he makes all of the decisions anyway. Media is the problem, IMO.

    No, media is not the problem. That's falling for the talking points. What is "media" anyway? News and reporters aren't the probelm - they're reporting on the facts as best as possible. The facts just suck for many, like Trump (who, incidentally, wouldn't know a fact if it hit him in his face). Opinion and entertainment can be problematic, especially when in masquerades as news. Lumping the two together doesn't benefit anyone but those who want to control the narrative, because it automatically equates facts with opinion, and makes both meaningless. One of those (facts, to be clear), is decidedly NOT meaningless - but those who want to control the narrative want you to think that, and become conditioned to hearing it, and start thinking it yourself.

    Please note: I'm not mentioning any specific network, newspaper, etc. etc. in the above.

    But now I will.

    FOX really helped destroy things. It started blurring the lines a lot more strongly than any network ever had - and it worked, because people found opinion more entertaining than facts. So more people watch. So then the other networks had to follow suit or go out of business. Is it FOX that's at fault, or the audience? I'd say mostly FOX, but definitely the audience, too. But, yes, CNN, MSNBC, and many others blur the line now (FOX more than most, and the most often).

    Media report the facts? That's laughable. I'm apolitical, and even I can see that. That's just my opinion.

    You didn't get anything I wrote. I probably wasn't clear.

    Oh, I got what you meant bro. Mostly FOX, joke.

  • @Max23 said:
    And it gets more scary,
    There already known cases where the virus jumped back (from human to human infection to human) to animal infection.
    It is highly likely that if it jumps back again from animal to human again it will be mutated again.

    This is the nightmare scenario, it’s only a matter of time before this happens, we can only hope for a vaccine or anti-virals that work. As we know from the influenza virus last century it jumped species several times, Covid-19 seems as transmissible, if not more so.

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  • @Max23 said:

    @knewspeak said:

    @Max23 said:
    And it gets more scary,
    There already known cases where the virus jumped back (from human to human infection to human) to animal infection.
    It is highly likely that if it jumps back again from animal to human again it will be mutated again.

    This is the nightmare scenario, it’s only a matter of time before this happens, we can only hope for a vaccine or anti-virals that work. As we know from the influenza virus last century it jumped species several times, Covid-19 seems as transmissible, if not more so.

    https://www.nationalgeographic.de/tiere/2020/04/durch-pfleger-angesteckt-tiger-us-zoo-covid-19-erkrankt

    Yes, if Covid-19 becomes transmissible amongst the domestic cat population, that would increase the risk of dangerous mutations, then possibly back to humans.

  • This perfectly captures Trump’s responses to the pandemic over time:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/tomricks1/status/1250071679285506051

  • You calling New Yorkers dense?
    Good way to get clocked.

  • edited April 2020

    @Sequencer1 said:
    You calling New Yorkers dense?

    Clearly... no

  • @JohnnyGoodyear said:
    This might be a little left field for some (and math heavy for me) and it has yet to be peer-reviewed, but one of my own little recurring thoughts is 'what if there are WAY more asymptomatic people than we so far have sussed'? These Docs postulate etc:

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.01.20050542v1.full.pdf

    Small example of scary figures etc:

    I was thinking this myself. It seems to be spreading very easily and super quickly. I can’t even remember the last time I seen someone sneeze or cough. There has to be more of it down to just breathing for it to be spreading like wild fire. They need to test a random sample of people to extrapolate some numbers.
    Anyway- have a look at this.

  • edited April 2020

    @robosardine said:

    Many of us are puzzled that there hasn't been any (obvious) testing to further test the likely asymptomatic nature etc. This was an interesting piece from Dr. John's post yesterday, look at the South Korean note:

    They ARE testing all arrivals and these recent stats as regards Americans are amazing I think....

    The bottom line seems to be however we approach this (politically, personally, economically) we NEED testing in orders of magnitude more than is happening today.

  • @robosardine said:
    Anyway- have a look at this.

    That video is just yet another "it's just the flu, bro" take. All-cause mortality is way up in the affected areas, including Lombardy, New York, and London.

  • Also in the UK 20 doctors have died of COVID19 in the last 3 weeks. In Lombardy more than 40 doctors have died since the start of March. This is not counting nurses and other medical staff. This does not happen with the flu.

    Additionally many of those who recover from the virus are likely to have permanent lung and kidney damage. This is not the fucking flu.

  • @JohnnyGoodyear said:
    @robosardine said:

    Many of us are puzzled that there hasn't been any (obvious) testing to further test the likely asymptomatic nature etc. This was an interesting piece from Dr. John's post yesterday, look at the South Korean note:

    They ARE testing all arrivals and these recent stats as regards Americans are amazing I think....

    The bottom line seems to be however we approach this (politically, personally, economically) we NEED testing in orders of magnitude more than is happening today.

    Of a magnitude that is absolutely bewildering for testing, just to bring about a shadow of normality. But on a good note, the mortality rates of practically all nations are well below what would have happened without the measures adopted. But provisions for the social care for elderly and the caregivers in my nation is frankly criminally negligent.

  • @knewspeak : you have asked a few times about what is needed to safely lift the lockdowns. Here is a good article talking about one aspect of it: contact tracing:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/experts-think-we-need-an-army-of-public-health-workers-to-safely-return-to-normal/

  • edited April 2020

    McConnel is a malignant cancer on Democracy, and has been a key component of America's decline - and lack of ability to prevent, manage, and bounce back from a pandemic. Here's a deep-dive in the New Yorker as perhaps the most evil, vile, soulless, and corrupt men in the country.

    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/04/20/how-mitch-mcconnell-became-trumps-enabler-in-chief?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=onsite-share&utm_brand=the-new-yorker&utm_social-type=earned

  • @espiegel123 said:
    @knewspeak : you have asked a few times about what is needed to safely lift the lockdowns. Here is a good article talking about one aspect of it: contact tracing:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/experts-think-we-need-an-army-of-public-health-workers-to-safely-return-to-normal/

    I know I’ve asked several times, so define safely.

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