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I'll do anything for love, but I won't do that...
Sorry for the duplication (I posted this in the thread about tracking the science) but gotta vent about how the mortaility situation is worse than the statistics have told us. So, anyone thinking that this has not turned out as badly as it could have -- realize that while it hasn't YET turned out to be the worst case (since, much of the world is sheltered in place to stop the spread of the virus -- and the worst case scenarios were for people going about their usual business), it is worse than the death stats you see indicate -- because those stats are according to pretty much every expert undercounts -- which is to be expected.
Possibly of interest as people think about how the mortality data we are seeing compares to flu epidemics. The death tolls for COVID-19 that we are seeing are merely deaths were COVID causality was ascertained. When we see flu death statistics for prior years, we are seeing "excess mortality" statistics NOT just the deaths of people that tested positive for the flu.
As has been documented, the excess mortality statistics can only be done in retrospect as they require comparisons of a current period to past periods. That data is only starting to emerge. And in places where they are examining it, it is looking like depending on the location the excess mortality figures are ranging from 1.25 to 4 or more times the number of identified COVID-19 deaths. The multipliers seem to be particularly higher in places (like New York City and Bergamo, Italy) where the surge is large enough to impact health care services generally and where many have died at home without having been tested. It also can be high in rural areas where the epidemic has spread because people may not have easy access to health care.
In the current situation, there are also concerns that some places are intentionally undercounting deaths (Florida has been up to some shenanigans by not reporting deaths for people dying in Florida who are not official state residents).
@espiegel123, I know you have explained to me why closed case recovery and death stats are not representative, but it has never varied much from 20%. Please explain again why this is invalid if you would.
What are called closed cases simply means people who at one time tested positive who have either died or tested negative. So, if testing only covers a fraction of the people actually infected then the closed case number is too small. In the U.S. for instance. relatively little testing has been done compared to the population. We have no idea how far off. Epidemiologist have said there could be more than 10 times as many cases as our tests show..since only seriously ill people are being tested in the U.S. for the most part.
Another is that in any given generation of illness, the deaths occur before the people that will recover have finished recovering. Since successive generations are twice as large as the previous generation early on, this can skew the stats.
Consider this simple case, 100 people become infected on the same day. If two of them die on day 10 and it takes 21 days before tests show anyone recovered, you will have two deaths and two closed cases. That looks like 100% mortality. Until 11 days later when — if no one else becomes infected — you would see that it was really a 2% mortality rate. Now, if the epidemic is still spreading, by the time you get to the end of 21 days you will have new and exponentially larger generations where the dead are showing up as closed cases while the people from those generation who will become cured have not shown up.
There are lots of articles to be found that explain it better than I have.
Epidemiologists seem to be in agreement that bth these effects give an exaggerated mortality rate and that we won’t know how exaggerated until the epidemic has wound down more.
@espiegel123, That is a very good explanation. I understand. Now if you could figure out why my bass track in Cubasis2 doesn’t sync when I mix down the entire track! Now that’s a problem!
The mortality rate will be lesser than the graph implies, but remember, the graph to date represents countries that have very good healthcare systems, poorer nations are yet to really appear on that graph.
You're right 😬
Ijits... this is why we can't have nice things...
warning not Faux News so it must be fake
Thousands of conservative Trump-supporters protested in front of the Michigan statehouse today.
It was designed to block traffic, including hospital workers driving to work so they can save lives.
The protest "Operation Gridlock" was organized by the Michigan Conservative Coalition and the Michigan Freedom Fund (DeVos family-linked conservative group) in opposition to Michigan Governor Whitmer, a democrat, who extended lockdown measures for her state a week ago, to April 30th. Fox News and Tucker Carlson likely helped perpetrate the protest.
UNBELIEVABLE. Thanks for sharing @kobamoto
"Lock Her Up" say the freedom-loving muricans, because they can't get a haircut.
Distant echoes, Burn her, she be witch......
Oooofffff......
So as the first few nations decide to relax lockdown we enter the period of uncertainty with hope. Whatever comes next, bar miracle therapy or a vaccine, certain sectors of the economy will have to change, if they can. As for gigging, Woodstock the spaced-out version with voyeuristic love-out event.
Meanwhile China revises the number of dead in Wuhan: up 50%.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/apr/17/coronavirus-live-news-trump-says-29-states-could-reopen-relatively-soon-as-global-deaths-near-145000?page=with:block-5e9929728f08ea7431f446b3#block-5e9929728f08ea7431f446b3
The daily death toll in the US is at four and a half thousand, and the far-right is protesting about the lockdown... 🤷♀️
That large daily death number does not appear to actually be the daily death number. From what I've read is that the other day, New York reclassified a number of deaths from previous weeks as COVID-related and those numbers all got picked up by data aggregators as new deaths on that day. So, basically 2000 deaths from the previous 10 days or so showed up yesterday rather than when they occurred.
Trump- I am all Powerful
Trump- I am Responsible for nothing
The Universe- hahahahhahahaha ijit.
He's literally inciting a revolt against governors he doesn't like.
How are you Trump people OK with this?
my stomach hurts
Ha. I read “ liberate your vagina”. He’s just got me thinking like he does.
it's ok these people failed history, they think they are the 'silent majority' rather than the folks who kicked their Fannies in the civil war.... basic math is not their forte and they cannot discern that the odds are mathematically far more worse for them now than the last time they lost.... so good luck with that narrative ijits
That's it boys. A call to arms. What we been waitin' for. Git your sh*t and ammo in the pikcup and let's roll
This supported what I have been thinking. Very insightful...
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/04/17/donald-trump-escape-crisis-bankruptcy-coronavirus-casino-trumpology-183513
my ninth grade history teacher used to say (in the mid-70s), we may find that the South won when the North abandoned reconstruction. I used to think he was just being edgy, but I think he was right. He also used to warn us that the U.S. could fall into being an authoritarian state. He was in high school in 1930's when the first America First party was happening -- and he'd tell us, "you kids don't understand how close we came to being Hitler's allies. Don't take democracy for granted."
He was a wise man.
indeed he was, but what I like to call 'the forever blindside' of people who hate is that they just can't fathom deep down inside how someone that looks like them could be so different from them... they really think they are the silent majority when in fact they are not, the silent majority are the people that were hated even more than the slaves during slavery, people like Sophia Auld and there are more of them than the rightwing can count.
I accept that it can be remarkably frustrating at times, but I find it reassuring to believe that while decency is sometimes altogether too silent it is most certainly still the majority.
I agree about the good out weighing the bad but I also think the complacent out weigh the good... it's hard being motivated I guess, in comparison the Fuhrer and chiefs ilk have already had a days worth of evil thoughts before breakfast lol
I just spoke to a guy at Bank OF America about a credit card issue. I asked how things were going... they are there extra hours apparently... he said people are calling up just to have someone to talk to. We laughed. It was funny... but sad. Funny and sad... incongruous. Calling a stranger at a bank cause the plague is at your door. It is not funny that people are lonely. But they do funny things. And when people are hungry...