Ukraine

cian

@JeffChasteen said:

“Kleptocrat” works as the single word Putin descriptor for me.

Meh, maybe. The kleptocracy predated him (the Yeltsin years were wild), he tamed/destroyed/killed some of the Oligarchs and brought back key resources back under state control. A reason for his early popularity is that he did a lot to tame many of the excesses.

It's very hard to distinguish things that Putin does actually believe/want to do, from things he kind of has to do due to power dynamics within Russia. I'm really not trying to say that he's a good guy because he isn't. And I'm sure he's quite wealthy (though the evidence cited for extreme wealth is pretty thin - not to say he isn't, but there's not much to say that he is), but I think his strongest motivations are Russian nationalism. And to the degree that Oligarchs have threatened what he sees as state interests - he's come down pretty hard on them. This is actually one of things that soured relationship with the US (initially they loved him) - he destroyed Oligarchs that were economically useful to the US.

Basically he's a right winger. Nationalist, anti-LGBTQ/athiesm, indifferent to human rights, militaristic. Not an American right winger (he will sacrifice big business for those things), but more old fashioned. And part of that is he wants Russia to be respected, which I think is why the NATO stuff and the Ukraine rankle so much (for years the Ukraine has trash talked Russia, which Putin seems to take pretty personally).

[Deleted User]

@cian said:

@yug said:

@cian said:

@yug said:

Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal, 3rd largest in the world, in exchange for security assurances from the US, the UK and Russia.

This isn't true. The nuclear weapons were Russian (they had the launch codes - there was nothing that the Ukraine could do with them). And they were a problem for the Ukraine as they were unable to maintain them.

Not true, those weapons could have been reconfigured to gain full control and retargeted.

LOL. They really couldn't have been. The Ukrainian government at the time were desperate to get rid of them as they were old, unmaintained and quite dangerous.

Not all of them were old. About a quarter of all Ukrainian ICBMs were a new model with a long expiry date and Ukraine wanted to keep them. Later, they agreed to destroy them but it took some convincing and a promise of payment

AlexY

@audio_DT said:

>

This is not correct. NATO is expansionist and Ukraine has long been a target for expansion. Perhaps read this piece by International Relations scholar John Mearsheimer for some context. https://www.mearsheimer.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Why-the-Ukraine-Crisis-Is.pdf

Excellent read. Thanks.

audio_DT

@AlexY said:

@audio_DT said:

>

This is not correct. NATO is expansionist and Ukraine has long been a target for expansion. Perhaps read this piece by International Relations scholar John Mearsheimer for some context. https://www.mearsheimer.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Why-the-Ukraine-Crisis-Is.pdf

Excellent read. Thanks.

You're very welcome.

mrufino1

I’m so sick of politicians, and so sick of some human beings’ need to control other human beings (I’m talking miltary, autocrats, fascism, etc- not medical recommendations for a pandemic, just to be clear), watching the rich get richer, etc.

But, I have slowly realized that the only power I have in all of this is to try to be a light to others because the only actions, thoughts, and attitudes I can control are mine.

My neighbor talks about her “Alternate merge theory of life.” I live in NJ 12 miles from NYC- there can be ridiculous traffic every day getting into the Lincoln and Holland tunnels, or the George Washington bridge, or really just anywhere that an alternate merge is “required.” If that was just followed, traffic might actually flow, but as soon as that one person has to “beat the merge,” “beat the red light,” etc it all falls apart. Oversimplified to a degree, but the concept is valid I think. The earth really does have enough for everyone to have what they need. We humans do a nice job of screwing that up! Anyway, I try to practice the alternate merge theory where I can- I don’t need all of “it.” I’m happy to recommend colleagues for gigs that they are better suited for than I am, and hopefully they do that at some point too. It’s ok to wait my turn to get off of the bus at port authority (bus station in NYC where you arrive if coming from NJ for those not from this area), it’s ok to not take too big a portion on the first trip to the buffet (ok, I might struggle with that sometimes…). As @JohnnyGoodyear would say, “etc, etc.”

I do my share of screwing things up but I try to keep this in mind for myself when I can. Ouch, I just fell off of my soapbox and unplugged my mic from my battery powered amp.

Didn’t mean to make this about me, but I don’t have any answers for the world except that I am trying everyday to be the best person I can be, trying to own mistakes, just trying to be positive. If you made it this far in my just woke up ADHD rant, then you’ll read that the main reason I come to this forum a lot, even if I don’t post a ton, and even if iOS is not my main music making platform any longer, is that I feel like the population in this forum is generally the same in that regard. This is a cool place with people that are pretty giving of themselves in helping others, in supporting people who create tools, in calling out BS in a loving and friendly way, and in being passionate. Keep it up, because it’s the little things like this that do make getting through tough times a little or a lot easier.

mrufino1

The TL;DR version- this is a cool forum with cool people, and that attitude towards each other makes this world an easier place to some degree every day.

[Deleted User]

@mrufino1 said:
it’s ok to not take too big a portion on the first trip to the buffet (ok, I might struggle with that sometimes…). As @JohnnyGoodyear would say, “etc, etc.”

Gotta disagree with this one, if I'm at the buffet my strategy is go as quickly as possible to fill up before my body realizes what I've done

Good thoughts all around

NeuM

@McD said:

@NeuM said:
All that matters is what happens on the world we inhabit and the people we interact with.

Have you heard about this space telescope that will get closer to hearing the noise from the Big Bang?
We need to stay open to the possibility of the seemingly impossible. Keep that child mind alive.

I’m pro-exploration and pro-knowledge, but what practical purpose does it serve? Absolutely none.

knewspeak

@NeuM said:

@McD said:

@NeuM said:
All that matters is what happens on the world we inhabit and the people we interact with.

Have you heard about this space telescope that will get closer to hearing the noise from the Big Bang?
We need to stay open to the possibility of the seemingly impossible. Keep that child mind alive.

I’m pro-exploration and pro-knowledge, but what practical purpose does it serve? Absolutely none.

Innovation through warfare, the good old way, perhaps?

NeuM

@knewspeak said:

@NeuM said:

@McD said:

@NeuM said:
All that matters is what happens on the world we inhabit and the people we interact with.

Have you heard about this space telescope that will get closer to hearing the noise from the Big Bang?
We need to stay open to the possibility of the seemingly impossible. Keep that child mind alive.

I’m pro-exploration and pro-knowledge, but what practical purpose does it serve? Absolutely none.

Innovation through warfare, the good old way, perhaps?

“Free trade with all, entangling alliances with none.”

JohnnyGoodyear

@NeuM said:

@McD said:

@NeuM said:
All that matters is what happens on the world we inhabit and the people we interact with.

Have you heard about this space telescope that will get closer to hearing the noise from the Big Bang?
We need to stay open to the possibility of the seemingly impossible. Keep that child mind alive.

I’m pro-exploration and pro-knowledge, but what practical purpose does it serve? Absolutely none.

https://orionmagazine.org/article/dark-ecology/

NeuM

@JohnnyGoodyear said:

@NeuM said:

@McD said:

@NeuM said:
All that matters is what happens on the world we inhabit and the people we interact with.

Have you heard about this space telescope that will get closer to hearing the noise from the Big Bang?
We need to stay open to the possibility of the seemingly impossible. Keep that child mind alive.

I’m pro-exploration and pro-knowledge, but what practical purpose does it serve? Absolutely none.

https://orionmagazine.org/article/dark-ecology/

Sorry, but an author who admits admiration for Ted Kaczynski isn’t one I’m willing to entertain. Kaczynski is a murderous sociopath.

If the latest space telescope can illuminate us on how to achieve faster-than-light travel, maybe it’ll all be worth it. Otherwise, the money would be better spent paying SpaceX to improve and make more affordable their Starship.

[Deleted User]

I apologize if folks have already brought this up, but one interesting thread in the USA interaction with Russia is the topic of sanctions. They are the go-to solution in the USA for responding to actions of other countries (well besides invasion). But in many ways they don't seem to actually cause the results that the USA thinks they do.

They disproportionately hurt the poor (even if there are exceptions for food and aid, because banks will still avoid this kind of business out of fear of getting it wrong). They also cause the targeted country to become more insular and often solidify the power of those in charge. When economic based political actions were first brought into the world, the theory is that there would be positive reinforcement when a country did something you wanted. But that doesn't really happen.

Anyways, this podcast episode the topic (in this case looking at Iran) was really interesting https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/e31-sanctions-sanctions-everywhere-w-yar-batmanghelidj/id1574741668 . The beginning is world news if you want to skip past it.

LinearLineman

@echoopera said:

@LinearLineman said:
@ervin, I’m not characterizing people as bad. The situation, as Gurdjieff and others have pointed out, is that we’re unconscious… living in a dream/illusion most of us will never wake up from. That unconscious condition plus our primitive survival instincts keep the human race enslaved to the states of fear and greed.

That one guy can do so much damage (is Jesus included in that group?) is testimony to the lack of ability we have to consciously resist outside influences that are antithetical to our better natures.
If Jesus existed, I believe that is what he meant by “sin”. Sin = unconsciousness. Then, of course, unconscious, power seeking minds, corrupted that concept and transformed it into a weapon of fear.

That’s what I have come to think after almost six decades of adulthood.

If only those with ears would listen.
If only those with heart would act.
If only those with spirit would lead.
What would the world evoke for generations?

Time to read some P. D. Ouspensky again.

It’s easy for things in life to go sideways when the Golden Rule is discarded in favor of personal agendas and goals.

Yes, indeed. The Fourth Way was mind blowing when I read it in my 20s… loved the Q and A format, also, I couldn’t believe, it was like 600 pages of the smallest print. Those were the days I could read such stuff… literally!

NeuM

@quartzite said:
I apologize if folks have already brought this up, but one interesting thread in the USA interaction with Russia is the topic of sanctions. They are the go-to solution in the USA for responding to actions of other countries (well besides invasion). But in many ways they don't seem to actually cause the results that the USA thinks they do.

They disproportionately hurt the poor (even if there are exceptions for food and aid, because banks will still avoid this kind of business out of fear of getting it wrong). They also cause the targeted country to become more insular and often solidify the power of those in charge. When economic based political actions were first brought into the world, the theory is that there would be positive reinforcement when a country did something you wanted. But that doesn't really happen.

Anyways, this podcast episode the topic (in this case looking at Iran) was really interesting https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/e31-sanctions-sanctions-everywhere-w-yar-batmanghelidj/id1574741668 . The beginning is world news if you want to skip past it.

The purpose of sanctions is to destabilize a government. If they work, they work spectacularly. But the US has almost no leverage against Russia, so this is all one big, dumb, obvious bluff.

[Deleted User]

@NeuM said:

@quartzite said:
I apologize if folks have already brought this up, but one interesting thread in the USA interaction with Russia is the topic of sanctions. They are the go-to solution in the USA for responding to actions of other countries (well besides invasion). But in many ways they don't seem to actually cause the results that the USA thinks they do.

They disproportionately hurt the poor (even if there are exceptions for food and aid, because banks will still avoid this kind of business out of fear of getting it wrong). They also cause the targeted country to become more insular and often solidify the power of those in charge. When economic based political actions were first brought into the world, the theory is that there would be positive reinforcement when a country did something you wanted. But that doesn't really happen.

Anyways, this podcast episode the topic (in this case looking at Iran) was really interesting https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/e31-sanctions-sanctions-everywhere-w-yar-batmanghelidj/id1574741668 . The beginning is world news if you want to skip past it.

The purpose of sanctions is to destabilize a government. If they work, they work spectacularly. But the US has almost no leverage against Russia, so this is all one big, dumb, obvious bluff.

True, though I don't think they really work in most cases, even when the USA has leverage. It seems more like a thing politicians can point to domestically and tell their constituents they did something.

Edit: what I found most interesting in that podcast was more that because sanctions are economic we don't directly connect them with death and suffering in the same way as warfare. But they still cause a lot of this.

dendy

so many experts on geopolitics, russia, ukraine and other related topics here ... fascinating.. i feel dumb not having strong opinion in this case, especialky in terms of Putin motivations, Biden motivations and theor strategies and plans...

maybe it's because i live in country too far from that conflict - slovakia, west neigbour of ukraine.

LinearLineman

@quartzite said:

@NeuM said:

@quartzite said:
I apologize if folks have already brought this up, but one interesting thread in the USA interaction with Russia is the topic of sanctions. They are the go-to solution in the USA for responding to actions of other countries (well besides invasion). But in many ways they don't seem to actually cause the results that the USA thinks they do.

They disproportionately hurt the poor (even if there are exceptions for food and aid, because banks will still avoid this kind of business out of fear of getting it wrong). They also cause the targeted country to become more insular and often solidify the power of those in charge. When economic based political actions were first brought into the world, the theory is that there would be positive reinforcement when a country did something you wanted. But that doesn't really happen.

Anyways, this podcast episode the topic (in this case looking at Iran) was really interesting https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/e31-sanctions-sanctions-everywhere-w-yar-batmanghelidj/id1574741668 . The beginning is world news if you want to skip past it.

The purpose of sanctions is to destabilize a government. If they work, they work spectacularly. But the US has almost no leverage against Russia, so this is all one big, dumb, obvious bluff.

True, though I don't think they really work in most cases, even when the USA has leverage. It seems more like a thing politicians can point to domestically and tell their constituents they did something.

Edit: what I found most interesting in that podcast was more that because sanctions are economic we don't directly connect them with death and suffering in the same way as warfare. But they still cause a lot of this.

@quartzite, I thought the sanctions against Iran were effective. Is this wrong?

[Deleted User]

@LinearLineman said:

@quartzite said:

@NeuM said:

@quartzite said:
I apologize if folks have already brought this up, but one interesting thread in the USA interaction with Russia is the topic of sanctions. They are the go-to solution in the USA for responding to actions of other countries (well besides invasion). But in many ways they don't seem to actually cause the results that the USA thinks they do.

They disproportionately hurt the poor (even if there are exceptions for food and aid, because banks will still avoid this kind of business out of fear of getting it wrong). They also cause the targeted country to become more insular and often solidify the power of those in charge. When economic based political actions were first brought into the world, the theory is that there would be positive reinforcement when a country did something you wanted. But that doesn't really happen.

Anyways, this podcast episode the topic (in this case looking at Iran) was really interesting https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/e31-sanctions-sanctions-everywhere-w-yar-batmanghelidj/id1574741668 . The beginning is world news if you want to skip past it.

The purpose of sanctions is to destabilize a government. If they work, they work spectacularly. But the US has almost no leverage against Russia, so this is all one big, dumb, obvious bluff.

True, though I don't think they really work in most cases, even when the USA has leverage. It seems more like a thing politicians can point to domestically and tell their constituents they did something.

Edit: what I found most interesting in that podcast was more that because sanctions are economic we don't directly connect them with death and suffering in the same way as warfare. But they still cause a lot of this.

@quartzite, I thought the sanctions against Iran were effective. Is this wrong?

They definitely haven't caused regime change. The sanctions have caused more hard-liners to have power in the country.

I wouldn't say they're completely ineffective, Iran does want sanctions relief and it has caused them to undo parts of their nuclear program. But because the USA is so bipolar, there is no guarantee that any agreement the USA and Iran have will last (see what happened with Obama's Iran deal and the transition to Trump). This means the USA is much less likely to get what they want from Iran because Iran don't trust the USA to do what they agreed to.

The sanctions will continue and innocent people will continue to starve and not be able to get medical supplies. If the USA bombed civilian centers it'd be a war crime, but if the USA does it economically by controlling the world economy, it's just a footnote.

LinearLineman

@quartzite, thx.

cian

@yug said:

Not all of them were old. About a quarter of all Ukrainian ICBMs were a new model with a long expiry date and Ukraine wanted to keep them. Later, they agreed to destroy them but it took some convincing and a promise of payment

Setting aside whether the Ukraine could really have repurposed them, they were ICBMs that would only be effective against Asian Russia. They wouldn't have been much of a deterrent against Russia.

cian

@quartzite said:

They definitely haven't caused regime change. The sanctions have caused more hard-liners to have power in the country.

I wouldn't say they're completely ineffective, Iran does want sanctions relief and it has caused them to undo parts of their nuclear program. But because the USA is so bipolar, there is no guarantee that any agreement the USA and Iran have will last (see what happened with Obama's Iran deal and the transition to Trump). This means the USA is much less likely to get what they want from Iran because Iran don't trust the USA to do what they agreed to.

Well the US under Trump broke their agreement, so I think at this point Iran would be quite reasonable to assume that there's zero point doing any deal with the US. Ironically there's not a lot of evidence that Iran was seriously trying to build nuclear weapons. Though given that they have two pretty hostile neighbors with nuclear weapons (Pakistan and Israel) - one could hardly blame them for wanting them at this point.

The sanctions will continue and innocent people will continue to starve and not be able to get medical supplies. If the USA bombed civilian centers it'd be a war crime, but if the USA does it economically by controlling the world economy, it's just a footnote.

Someone quite close to me comes from an Iranian family who were not supporters of the regime and her father's business was destroyed by sanctions. The remains of it were acquired by business men with close ties to Iranian leadership. That's not necessarily a representative story, but it's not an isolated example either. Her father's take is that it's probably strengthened the leadership by giving them more control over who gets access to sanctions busting resources.

[Deleted User]

@cian said:
Well the US under Trump broke their agreement, so I think at this point Iran would be quite reasonable to assume that there's zero point doing any deal with the US. Ironically there's not a lot of evidence that Iran was seriously trying to build nuclear weapons. Though given that they have two pretty hostile neighbors with nuclear weapons (Pakistan and Israel) - one could hardly blame them for wanting them at this point.

Yea when Trump ripped up the agreement, Iran's only option was to start enriching Uranium again to remind the USA that they exist. Otherwise they'd just get forgotten like Cuba, being sanctioned for decades while almost no one in the USA even thinks about them.

Good (very sad and frustrating) story about the business btw. Inflation keeps rising in Iran and that allows the government there to centralize power while everyone else is pushed into economic ruin.

GrimLucky

@quartzite said:

@mrufino1 said:
it’s ok to not take too big a portion on the first trip to the buffet (ok, I might struggle with that sometimes…). As @JohnnyGoodyear would say, “etc, etc.”

Gotta disagree with this one, if I'm at the buffet my strategy is go as quickly as possible to fill up before my body realizes what I've done

Good thoughts all around

Take one of these with you 😊

audiblevideo

Putin is an violent authoritarian only interested in power and re-establishing the Russian Empire.
The RW (aka the GOP) is now all in on praising this "strong man" while trying to overthrow our own democracy.

It’s not just Trump: Mike Pompeo also offered praise for Putin

https://twitter.com/djrothkopf/status/1496348077640364035

This is not hyperbole, and what happens in Ukraine is happening here with demoralizing and destabilizing to establish authoritarian rule

(PS Biden doesn't have "handlers" any more than *rump did. Biden has policy advisors and experts. *rump had sycophants and grifters.)

Meanwhile on the US fascist front

https://twitter.com/lasramisteriosa/status/1496509669279518726

just my "worthless" 2c

NeuM

Wow. It’s possible to draw so many incorrect conclusions just in one post. Mind-boggling.

Criticism of Biden is well earned. Putin is running circles around him at the expense of the American people. Biden should be impeached and kicked out of office.

wim

Sucks that a thread about the Ukraine has to turn into a thread mostly about US politics. I'm kinda interested in what's going on over there and why myself.

Poppadocrock

@Ted_Pikul said:

@Agatha_aga said:
I'm from Ukraine and its so strange to read this type of thread on AB

I have family there, and I am constantly worrying about what might happen. Guys, let’s put aside these political discussions and support anyone who may be caught up in this senseless violence. War is hell, not something to make clever quips about on social media.

Agreed. I’m > @NeuM said:

@McD said:
I think if you had to pick a single word biography for Vladimir Putin, I'd choose "spymaster".

A spymaster works entirely outside of international legal or moral/ethical frameworks to advice a country's position in the world.

The single word I'd have to place on Joe Biden might be "alterboy" with a strong sense of moral code and service to a higher purpose.

A former US Spymaster has a good take on the long game Spymaster Putin is likely pursuing:

https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/a-cia-cold-warrior-on-the-intelligence-war-over-ukraine/

This game will should several decades.

I'd assign no such honor to Biden. There are enough mentions in Hunter Biden's emails about his father and the suggestion he was getting kickbacks from China to warrant an investigation into both of them. And by the way, this investigation into Hunter's business entanglements started in 2019 and still hasn't concluded.

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/fbi-investigating-hunter-biden-for-money-laundering-report/

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/what-we-know-about-hunter-bidens-deal-with-a-chinese-energy-company/

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/09/politics/hunter-biden-tax-investigtation/index.html

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/secret-service-agents-intervened-in-hunter-biden-gun-incident-report/ar-BB1eXprk

I’m not sure why I’m even posting in this thread, I’ve tried to avoid it until now. I highly respect you, and all involved, But I wanted to mention a couple things. 1. this didn’t happen overnight, it’s been many years in the making, and no one single person or action, particularly from the US, is the cause of this international situation. there are many factors involved, and they happened over a long period of time. 2. the current administration is basically a bunch of alter boys compared to the crimes, alleged crimes, fraud, scandals, unethical, & immoral behavior of the previous one.

It’s ok we don’t see eye to eye. We all need to try to find the middle ground more often. try not to be so divisive, myself included. I know this is an important topic, and hits home to many on here. I just wish this type of content was maybe separate from the main feed, or able to be sorted out, or even discussed on other platforms. Not trying to censor at all, but there are many, many places to discuss these things, and the ab forum should be a safe space. My hope is that the ab forum continues to bring people together, not divide them.

On a side note. It’s kind of ironic that there was just an interesting thread discussing the “state” of the forum, and a few days later out comes an OT Political thread.

NeuM

@wim said:
Sucks that a thread about the Ukraine has to turn into a thread mostly about the US.

Most of what happens in the world is either going to be about the US, Russia, China or the Middle East.

Poppadocrock

@wim said:
Sucks that a thread about the Ukraine has to turn into a thread mostly about US politics. I'm kinda interested in what's going on over there and why myself.

I was thinking that too.